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Thursday, 18 April 2019

What we’re tracking on 18 April 2019.

Look for purple fingers this weekend as we head to the polls to vote on the proposed constitutional amendments. Polls open on Saturday, 20 April and will close in the evening on Monday. Expats start voting tomorrow, with polls closing on Sunday. You can read the statement by the National Elections Authority here.

An Egyptian delegation is in New York for the UN Financing for Development Forum, which will wrap up today, according to a cabinet statement. The delegation, led by Nada Massoud, economic advisor to Planning Minister Hala El Said, is there to discuss sustainable development policies and put the spotlight on the Benban solar park in Aswan.

[Correction: The version of this story in our email edition incorrectly stated that the delegation was led by Hala El Said.]

Things we’re keeping our eye on next week:

The long-awaited Mueller report into Russian interference in US elections will be publicly released today, albeit in a redacted form. A separate version with fewer redactions will be given to Congress, according to CNN. Attorney-General William Barr last month announced that Mueller had not found any evidence of collusion between the Russians and the campaign of US President Donal Trump during the 2016 US election

Is the Fed done raising interest rates? A closely watched poll from the Bank of America Merrill Lynch has a slim majority of fund managers saying they believe the Federal Reserve has finished its rate hike cycle, according to the FT. The poll of 187 managers, who collectively have AUM of some USD 547 bn, is widely considered to be a litmus test of investor sentiment.

Will the IPO of two unicorns in the US today hit the “reset” button on sentiment? Pinterest and lesser-known videoconferencing platform Zoom (which we’ve used successfully here at Enterprise) are making their public market debuts today, according to the WSJ. The companies priced their shares yesterday at USD 19 and USD 36, respectively. 2019 is shaping up to be a banner year for IPOs, but with Lyft’s shaky offering earlier this month, how Pinterest and Zoom fare will be a key bellwether moments for assessing the IPO market going forward.

To round off our week of death-by-robots stories: Artificial intelligence will pose a growing threat to economic growth in the developing world as more jobs are lost to automation and robotic technologies — so says Oxford professor Ian Goldin in this BBC piece. Automation will present a growing challenge for policymakers in the coming years, particularly in developing economies that can’t afford the luxury of the kind of social programs currently being debated in some Western capitals.

The smart policy: Policymakers should start planning ahead and finding ways to integrate new technologies into the economy at the lowest possible human cost. In other words: EM growth by investment in medium weight, medium tech, export-led growth may be dead.

Mohamad Salah is on the cover of Time Magazine’s 100 most influential people of 2019. John Oliver wrote a glowing blurb about Salah, proving once again that the national treasure is one reliable reason for the Western press to write fondly of Egypt. Salah is joined by ‘the other Egyptian,’ actor Rami Malek, alongside Donald Trump, Michelle Obama, and Taylor Swift.

PSA #1- The EGX has a two-day work week the week after next. The EGX confirmed yesterday it will be closed from 25-29 April (Thursday-Monday) in observance of Sinai Liberation Day, Coptic Easter, and Sham El Nessim. The market will reopen on Tuesday, 30 April, and close once again on Wednesday, 1 May for Labor Day. It’s back to business as usual on Thursday, 2 May. Look for the EGX to move to shortened Ramadan hours the following week when the Holy Month begins.

PSA #2- Temperatures in the capital will continue to be mild through the weekend with daytime highs of 24-26°C and overnight lows around 13°C.

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