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Wednesday, 17 April 2019

What we’re tracking on 17 April 2019

It’s official, folks: Ramadan will begin on Monday, 6 May. The National Astronomy Institute confirmed yesterday the first day of the holy month, Ahram Online reports. That gives us all one normal work day after we return from the extended month-end holiday.

The House of Representatives yesterday voted overwhelmingly in favor of constitutional amendments that would extend presidential terms, bring back the upper house of parliament, restore the office of the vice president and more.

You’re going to have the chance to go vote on Saturday: Polling stations in Egypt open on 20 April and will close in the evening on 22 April. Expats will be able to vote in the referendum a day earlier, running from 19-21. We have more in this morning’s Speed Round.

President Abdel Fattah El Sisi heading to Beijing for China’s Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation. El Sisi is expected to sign three agreements with China during the forum, China’s commercial attaché said, according to Al Mal. It remains unclear when El Sisi is scheduled to land in the Chinese capital.


Saudi Arabia’s clout in the oil world is the theme of the OPEC+ meeting in Vienna today and tomorrow to discuss an extension to the oil supply cuts. KSA has always been a key OPEC+ player, but its influence increased when it brought Russia on to the most recent cut pledges in December 2018, writes the WSJ. With this increased muscle and backing from Moscow, Saudi Arabia could push through its plans to keep the supply cuts in place — and send prices rising again. However, the FT’s David Sheppard says Riyadh should now be signaling its willingness to “step in to damp the impact” of dropping oil output as Venezuela, Iran, and Libya each grapple with their own constraints.

Brent his hovering just below USD 72 / bbl heading into the gathering.The Finance Ministry has oil at USD 70 in its draft 2019-2020 budget. Each USD 1 increase in the price of a barrel costs the Egyptian government EGP 2.3 bn.


How many of your colleagues at work suffer from the Dunning-Kruger effect? Not up to speed? Thank us later: “The Dunning–Kruger effect is a cognitive bias in which people mistakenly assess their cognitive ability as greater than it is. It is related to the cognitive bias of illusory superiority and comes from the inability of people to recognize their lack of ability. Without the self-awareness of metacognition, people cannot objectively evaluate their competence or incompetence.”


Can we please not talk about a “melt up” in global equities? It’s almost as annoying as our generation’s constant misuse of the word “around.” Nevertheless: Larry Fink, CEO at BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, thinks “signs of healthier economic growth in the US and China will reassure big investors that have largely stayed on the sidelines of the 2019 market recovery.”

That earnings recession in the US everyone expected? It’s actually a mixed bag: BlackRock and JP Morgan have reported strong 1Q19 results, while Johnson & Johnson beat analyst expectations and Netflix saw improvements in revenue and net profit, but slower subscriber growth in the US. IBM shares slid after revenues fell, and United Continental also missed on revenues (though earnings beat Wall Street expectations).

Among those still due to report today or tomorrow: Morgan Stanley, American Express, PepsiCo and Honeywell. Reuters and Bloomberg have more.

But, but, but… US industrial output was “unexpectedly” flat in March after dropping in both January and February, delivering the first quarterly drop in production since The Donald was elected president in Amreeka. The FT and Reuters have more.


The top earners in finance don’t work at commercial or investment banks, but at real estate investment trusts, according to the Wall Street Journal. That’s virgin territory here in Omm El Donia, ladies and gentlemen. Just sayin’.

Shocker: CEO pay is out of control at US companies, where the CEOs of 11 of the largest companies by revenue to have reported their 2018 results have been found to earn more than 1000x their company’s average employee wage. The Financial Times takes a deep dive and finds corporate bosses in the US are paid better than their counterparts at any other country on earth.


French President Emmanuel Macron has promised to rebuild Notre Dame Cathedral within five years after a fire swept the 850-year old building yesterday, reports the New York Times. French corporate giants have already pledged more than EUR 450 mn in donations. President Abdel Fattah El Sisi extended his condolences to the French president following the incident.

Will the resident 11-year-old’s favourite video game help rebuild Notre Dame? The makers of Assassin’s Creed tasked one level artist to spend two years modeling Notre Dame inside and out, Business Insider reports — data that could prove important in the rebuilding of the cathedral. BI was picking up on a 2014 feature in The Verge.

PSA for iSheep- iOS 13 is going to turn the iPad into the work machine of your dreams, 9to5 Mac claims, citing unnamed sources who say it will include “the ability for apps to have multiple windows,” dark mode, a new undo gesture other than shaking your [redacted] tablet, automatic desktop-mode websites in Safari and lots more. The new operating system is likely to be unveiled in June at Apple’s annual developer conference and made available for download in fall.

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