Picking up where we left off yesterday: Concerns over the Chinese economy dominate headlines in the global business press. The country reported a 4.4% drop in exports in December — the lowest drop in two years according to the FT — a result largely attributed to the trade war with the US. A 7.6% drop in imports has got everyone freaking out over a slowdown in China’s growth. The results did a number on Asian markets, as the MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific ex-Japan shares fell 1%, its lowest single day drop in two weeks, according to Reuters. The FTSE sagged 0.9% yesterday, but Asian shares were cautiously up heading into dispatch time this morning.

The impact of China’s slowdown is spreading, the FT’s editorial board warns, noting that Apple (US), Samsung (Korea) and Jaguar Land Rover (UK) are all feeling the pinch of a slowing Chinese economy. “The warnings are a sign of the deepening economic distress in the world’s second-largest economy,” the salmon-colored paper warns, “and this will have a far bigger external impact in the coming year than it did in 2018.” And there’s plenty more (corporate) pain to come: Nike, Starbucks, chipmaker Texas Instruments and owners of major global consumer brands could all be next to add fuel to the fire as US earnings season begins this week, the Wall Street Journal adds.

Should we expect the Fed to ride to the rescue? No, says UBS: The US Federal Reserve will raise interest rates twice this year, UBS Global Wealth Management predicts, according to Bloomberg. A top UBS pundit says a strong US economy may give the Fed an incentive to continue to raise borrowing costs. The Swiss financial services firm joins JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America in predicting more tightening. The Fed raised rates four times in 2018, with a 25 basis point bump in December bringing its benchmark rate to 2.5%.

So should emerging markets be cringing right about now? Not necessarily, says a top money manager at Fidelity. With Fed boss Jay Powell having hinted that the Fed could take a more cautious approach to rate hikes this year, Fidelity’s Paul Greer told Bloomberg that, “The USD has now peaked, Fed policy has turned and China is responding to slower growth momentum with monetary and fiscal stimulus. All of these factors, coupled with cheap valuations and a recovering oil price, should be supportive for EM risk-asset performance.”

In miscellany this morning:

• We have competition from KSA for the capital of investors who like privatization offerings. The kingdom thinks it can haul in some USD 11 bn by 2020 through the sale of stakes in “utilities, soccer clubs, flour mills and medical facilities.” And the Aramco stake sale? Don’t expect that before 2021. (Bloomberg)
• UK Prime Minister Theresa May is at risk of a “humiliating Brexit defeat” in a key vote scheduled for today. If she loses the vote on her Brexit agreement with the EU, all bets are off as to what the future of the UK’s relationship with Europe looks like. (Financial Times)
• Turkey isn’t quaking in its boots over The Donald’s threat to “devastate” it economically. “You cannot get anywhere by threatening Turkey economically,” Foreign Minister Nevlut Cavusoglu said yesterday. (BBC)
• Ivanka Trump isn’t going to be a candidate to run the World Bank, but will help lead the search for the institution’s next president after Jim Yong Kim stepped down two years ahead of schedule to join a private equity firm. (Wall Street Journal)

About [redacted] time: Game of Thrones is coming back this April: While it might feel as though these cold winter days will never end, we now know that the real winter is coming on 14 April — the date HBO has finally announced for the premiere of the eighth and final season of Game of Thrones. Watch the latest teaser on Vox.

** PSA #1- Plan now to escape for more than a full week in late April. By our count, you can take a week (plus one day) off in late April if you sacrifice two vacation days. Sinai Liberation day, Easter, Sham El Nessim and Labor Day make it possible to book off 25 April through 4 May if you’re willing to bridge 30 April and 2 May.

Bonus: That means you’re back to work with one day of coffee before Ramadan begins on 6 May (TBC). All of this and more is in our Calendar section, now updated with major holidays through year’s end. Check it out at the bottom of today’s issue here in this email or on our website.

** PSA #2- Be prepared for the second sand storm of the week starting as early as this morning and possibly extending into tomorrow. Our favorite weather app suggests we’re looking at brisk 30-50 km/h winds today and tomorrow with occasional gusts of more than 65 km/h. Expect temperatures that feel like 14°C today and about 6°C overnight.