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Thursday, 10 January 2019

What we’re tracking on 10 January, 2019

Can we begin by first saying how happy we are it is Thursday. We feel we still need one more weekend before the post-New Year’s break yawning dissipates.

US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo arrived to Cairo last night. The word is out that Pompeo would use the visit to deliver an address that would repudiate former US President Barack Obama’s speech on the country’s Middle East policy. “Pompeo intends to assert the Trump message that Iran is to be countered at all costs, while assuring that the United States remains deeply committed to the region despite the America First rhetoric emanating from the White House,” according to Reuters.

Meanwhile, French President Emmanuel Macron will be in town in the coming weeks, France’s ambassador in Cairo, Stéphane Romatet said yesterday, according to Al Ahram. We had also previously reported that security cooperation (including the situation in Libya) as well as economic ties will feature high on the agenda.

FRA issues explainer on cumulative voting in GA meetings, BoD elections: The Financial Regulatory Authority (FRA) issued yesterday an explainer outlining the framework for using cumulative voting during companies’ board elections and general assembly meetings. The cumulative voting system, which allows shareholders to vote proportionately to the number of shares they hold, is meant to strengthen minority shareholders’ influence on the selection of board members, according to a FRA statement.

The Social Solidarity Ministry should be presenting a draft of the new Social Welfare Act to the House of Representatives sometime in the next few days, according to previous statements by Minister Ghada Wali on Sunday, according to Al Mal. The bill, if passed, would require the government to provide families eliminated from the Takaful or Karama social welfare programs with jobs.

Strangest story of the day: Egypt’s embassy in Australia was among those targeted by an Australian man who sent strange parcels. Australian police said they had arrested a 48-year-old man for sending as many as 38 suspicious packages to diplomatic embassies and consulates across the country, according to Reuters.

Emerging markets bond issuance season has begun: It seems that the quickest way to a media-weary EM investor’s heart is through yields. Saudi Arabia and Turkey took advantage of the rebound witnessed since the New Year to go to the bond market with massive issuances. Saudi Arabia made a USD 7.5 bn offering in two tranches, while Turkey took to selling USD 2 bn in USD-denominated bonds, according to Bloomberg. Both governments offered premium yields on their 10-year debts. The newspaper notes that the political missteps of both countries in 2018 had been a major contributor to emerging markets selloff last year.

Should Egypt get on board the station: Both countries and the Philippines are among a string of EMs — including Egypt — that will look to capitalize on the current favorable climate. Egypt has yet to decide to the timing of its eurobond issuance, with senior government officials telling Enterprise that the timing of the issuance will be determined with investment banks that would be selected to manage the issuance. The Finance Ministry has received the green light from Cabinet to move ahead with issuing a tender for investment banks and law firms to act as joint lead managers and legal advisors, officials told us.

This comes as more indications come in that the US Federal Reserve will be looking to slow down rate hikes moving forward. Minutes from the Fed’s 18-19 December meeting, where it raised interest rates a quarter point to a range of 2.25-2.5%, appears to indicate that not only is the Fed seeing that it can "afford to be patient about further policy firming,” but that it is factoring in global considerations. The minutes noted that the low-inflationary backdrop means the Fed "Concerns over escalating trade tensions, global growth prospects, and the sustainability of corporate earnings growth were among the factors that appeared to contribute to a significant drop in U.S. equity prices," the minutes said. Suggestions of a slowdown in the rate cut were the primary reason behind the rebound in EM assets.

Cue the naysayers: New York-based fund manager Steve Eisman, who made mns by predicting the housing market collapse first, sees the market for triple B-rated bonds crashing soon, the Financial Times reports. With their outstanding issuance jumping to USD 2.7 tn from USD 750 bn at the end of 2007, Eisman says the bonds will likely be sold at huge discounts.

Season 5 of the Abraaj liquidation — Abraaj strikes USD 10 mn debt-for-equity transaction with Nigeria’s C&I Leasing: Beleaguered MENA PE firm Abraaj has struck up an agreement with Nigeria’s C&I Leasing to acquire a 70% stake in order to avoid paying a USD 10 mn loan agreement, according to Bloomberg. “Abraaj knows that pulling out USD 10 mn will be detrimental to the growth of the business, so rather than cash out, they decided to convert,” C&I Chief Executive Officer Andrew Otike-Odibi said. C&I is planning a rights issue or an IPO that may dilute the former giant’s stake to about 30%, he said.

Depressing story of the day: the chances for getting a stroke in one’s lifetime is now 25%, according to 2016 data from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation picked up by Bloomberg. The study showed that the lifetime stroke risk for 25-year-olds ranged from 8-39%. The lesson: “it is clear that younger adults need to think about long-term health risks,” said Dr. Gregory Roth, a professor at the institute at the University of Washington and senior author of the study.

Other headlines worth noting in brief:

  • Saudi Arabia has published the first audit of Aramco in 40 years as it tries to renew interest in an Aramco IPO, according to Bloomberg. The audit, conducted by Dallas-based consultant DeGolyer & MacNaughton, showed that reserves totalled 268.5 bn barrels.
  • The UK’s House of Commons agreed to an amendment that would limit the government's ability to change the tax law should a no-agreement Brexit take shape, according to the FT.
  • Sudan’s President Omar Al Bashir rejected calls for him to step down on Wednesday as protests against his rule, which saw around 40 killed, continued for the third straight week, according to the Washington Post.
  • MacKenzie Bezos could become the richest woman in the world by virtue of divorcing Amazon founder Jeff Bezos. An even split could see her get USD 69 bn, according to Bloomberg. Thoughts of Eddie Murphy’s Raw standup (NSFW) on getting half comes to mind (watch, runtime: 5:58).

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