Three stories worth looking at as you mull what the macro and global backdrops could look like in 2019. (Because you already read that the IMF and its outgoing chief economist are concerned about what’s coming down the pike for next year, right?)

FIRST: Expect a year of turbulence in the GCC, Bloomberg argues in a piece that tackles the oil rout, Saudi geopolitics, Turkish policy, the prospect of leadership change, political instability and the ongoing embargo on Qatar.

SECOND: The yield curve in the US will invert in 2019 — and recession will follow, a Reuters poll of economists found. The inversion could come within six months and a recession “could follow as soon as a year after that,” the newswire argues. The catch: As we’ve previously noted, inversion has a near-perfect track record in predicting a recession will happen, but says nothing about when it will take place. This is economists reading their version of the sheep’s entrails so beloved of technical analysts.

THIRD: US value stocks could stage a comeback after “radically” underperforming growth stocks since the global financial crisis. “Value investing consists of picking unloved stocks that are trading below their theoretical value in the hopes of significant profit when the firm falls into favour,” the Financial Times explains as it picks up on a Morgan Stanley research note that has caught the imagination of market watchers abroad.

The latest critique of capitalism in the business press is from none other than Martin Wolf, who bluntly declares in the salmon-colored paper that “we must rethink the purpose of the corporation.” We’re not 100% down with his conclusion on competition, but the piece is worth a read — if only for its review of recent literature and for this paragraph: “Given the mantra of shareholder value maximisation and the inability of shareholders to monitor management, rewards have increasingly been linked not to the performance of the business in delivering on its purposes, but to accounting profits and the share price. Yet both are subject to manipulation. Some would argue that the result has been excessive remuneration … and chronic under-investment, too.”

International news worth knowing this morning:

Theresa May is still prime minister after 200 Tory MPs backed her in a vote of confidence last night. May will travel to Brussels today to “try to save her Brexit [agreement] with her authority shaken and her party bitterly divided.” The secret ballot came after backbenchers rebelled over May abandoning a planned House of Commons vote on Brexit.

The latest in the US-China-Canada flap: Huawei CFO Meng Wanzhou has posted bail of CAD 10 mn in Vancouver as she fights extradition to the US, where she faces charges of sanctions busting, according to Reuters. Amid a messy bid to cool off his trade war with China, The Donald has said he could intervene in the case if it is in the US’ national interest (triggering a rebuke from Ottawa). Meanwhile, China has arrested a well-connected former Canadian diplomat and Ottawa is openly asking what happened to a second citizen who has been unreachable since he said he was being questioned by Chinese authorities.

The Donald’s former lawyer, Michael Cohen, was sentenced to three years in prison yesterday “after denouncing Mr. Trump and explaining that ‘I felt it was my duty to cover up his dirty deeds,’” the New York Times reports.

In miscellany this morning:

• Go under the knife for prostate cancer? “A three-decade study found that prostate-removal surgery added an average of nearly three years to lives of men with prostate cancer, compared with those who didn’t get surgery and were monitored.” (WSJ)
• Down with homework, say US schools: “School districts across the country are banning homework, forbidding it on certain days or just not grading it, in response to parents who complain of overload and some experts who say too much can be detrimental.” (WSJ)

PSA- Expect a nightmarish commute this afternoon and heavy traffic on select arteries around the capital city this weekend thanks to a partial closure of the 6 October Bridge for repair work. The closure starts by midday today until 5am on Sunday, Youm7 reports.