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Wednesday, 28 November 2018

Market players see 2019 as the comeback year for EMs

Portfolio managers and strategists see 2019 as a comeback year for EM shares, which took a beating throughout much of 2018, according to Bloomberg.

Triple trend reversal next year: Next year could see a “triple trend reversal,” Morgan Stanley strategists suggest, pointing to prospects for 1) faster growth in China on the back of monetary easing; 2) a weaker USD thanks to a mid-2019 pause in the Fed’s rate hikes and 3) a ‘hiatus’ in America’s trade war with China. All of this “benefits EM equities the most,” they wrote in double-upgrading the asset class to overweight relative to benchmarks from underweight. JPMorgan strategists see the US Fed slowing its pace of rate hikes next year, a move that would help EMs heavily geared up with USD-denominated debt. JPMorgan strategists see the MSCI EM index gaining 13% gain by the end of 2019 — the gauge is down almost 16% for 2018, “the third-worst performance since the global crisis in 2008.”

Low valuations also present opportunities: Emerging-market valuations are approaching “crisis levels,” presenting a long-term buying opportunity, a PM at Franklin Templeton suggests. JPM, meanwhile, likes Russia, Indonesia, Brazil and Chile.

In miscellany this morning:

  • The number of listed companies in the US is down 50% from its peak in the mid-1990s: More small US companies are avoiding IPOs, forcing the number of publicly traded companies in the States to fall by half to c. 3,600 today from nearly 8,000 in the mid-1990s. (New York Times)
  • Is the M&A boom in the US about to come to an end? A former investment banker turned author thinks so. (New York Times)
  • The best spot in the office is a phone booth — if you can get into one (and if the last person to use it didn’t sit there to eat koshari. Which, incidentally, is banned at Enterprise World Headquarters.) (Wall Street Journal)

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