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Thursday, 2 August 2018

What we’re tracking on 1 August 2018

Could Vodafone be pressured to sell its Egyptian arm? That’s the suggestion from Bloomberg, which speculates that incoming CEO Nick Read will be looking for ways to cope with “a weak share price [and] a fragile dividend” as it faces a potential “shake-up by US activist investor Elliott Management Corp,” which has reportedly built a stake in the world’s second-largest wireless carrier. Among the options Bloomberg suggests could be on the table: “Selling divisions. Vodafone has assets dotted around the world that Elliott could pressure it to sell. … The group’s South African and Egyptian units contribute to synergies.” Read: Vodafone could be ripe for activist investors, one of the most interesting pieces we’ve read on a very slow newsnight.

The US Federal Reserve left interest rates on hold yesterday, characterizing the US economy as strong in a statement. The Fed left its target federal funds rate range at 1.75-2%. “Job gains have been strong, on average, in recent months, and the unemployment rate has stayed low. Household spending and business fixed investment have grown strongly,” the statement read. Analysts still expect the Fed to raise rates twice before the end of the year, according to Reuters.

Goldman Sachs lowers expected 2018 returns for EM assets in mid-year update to its 2018 Outlook: In a once in a blue moon mid-year update to its 2018 Outlook, Goldman Sachs has lowered its expected returns on emerging markets assets in 2018, with the bank recommending a “small strategic allocation to emerging markets.” Nonetheless, the bank has raised its aggregate growth forecast by only 0.2%, driven largely by improved outlooks on China and India —and offset by declines in Russia and Brazil. “Monetary policy remains accommodative across the key countries, and the inflation outlook is benign,” it reads. Earnings in EM companies grew 12%, the report notes, in line with expectations. That said: Growth was concentrated in energy, IT, and materials.

Still, Goldman’s asset management unit now sees EM bonds as some of the more attractive opportunities out there. “The growth story there is still very positive,” Andrew Wilson, the London-based co-head of global fixed income at Goldman Sachs Asset Management, said in an interview with Bloomberg TV. The bank has all but called an end to the EM zombie apocalypse, saying that the plunge had bottomed out in June.

The Goldman report also sees continued volatility in global markets driven by political risks, noting especially the ongoing trade war between the US and China. US equities get a strong buy recommendation at the expense of other developed markets (particularly the Eurozone) and emerging markets.

You can catch the full report here (pdf) or access it through the landing page here.

Speaking of that trade war: The Donald is considering raising tariffs on Chinese imports to 25%. That would more than double the proposed tariffs on some USD 200 bn in annual imports from China, the Financial Times reports.

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