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Thursday, 26 July 2018

What we’re tracking on 25 July 2018

While the slow news cycle continued again for the third straight day here in Egypt, it was peppered with important news. Preliminary figures from the government show Egypt’s GDP growth rising to 5.3% in FY2017-18, while economists polled by Reuters see GDP for the current fiscal hitting 5.2%. The US also unfroze USD 195 mn in military aid to Egypt it suspended last year, and the House of Representatives has finally given its sign off on the Madbouly Cabinet’s policy platform. All this and more coming up in the Speed Round below.

Speaking of our esteemed representatives, the House has ended its current legislative session and will recess for the summer — a break only us here at Enterprise will appreciate more than the MPs. By law, President Abdel Fattah El Sisi must call in the fall session of the House by the first Thursday of October, said House Speaker Ali Abdel Aal, according to Al Ahram. It is perhaps not surprising that the rush to the holidays saw a number of legislation having been passed by the House yesterday. We have more in the Speed Round.

Finance Minister Mohamed Maait had given us the rundown on some of the key laws the ministry plans to issue in the fall when the House reconvenes in an interview earlier this week. This includes major new amendments to the tax code, a new Customs Act, a new Pensions Act, and the executive regulations for recently passed laws.

 UK’s FCO updates travel warning against publicizing negative political opinion in Egypt: The UK’s Foreign and Commonwealth Office (FCO) is warning British tourists against expressing “negative opinions” while in Egypt in the latest update to their travel advisory page. “Making political comments, including about the President or security forces, can cause trouble with the authorities. In some cases, derogatory comments on social media have led to custodial sentences.”

Oil appears to continue dominating international business headlines, as crude prices rose another 0.95% to USD 74.64/bbl. The price hike follows a report from the US Energy Information Agency which said that the country’s crude stockpiles dropped to the lowest since 2015 last week and gasoline supplies fell for a fourth week. Nationwide oil inventories fell by 6.15 mn bbls, according to the report which was picked up by Bloomberg.

Hedging against higher oil prices was front and center at yesterday’s Madbouly Cabinet meeting, where they signed off on hiring international banks to help the government hedge against rising crude prices, which is already straining the budget. We have more in the Speed Round.

EM zombie apocalypse respite? MSCI’s benchmark emerging equity index reached a one-month high, rising 0.4% for a second day of gains, boosted by a rise in Wall Street stocks which spilled over into tech-heavy Asian bourses, Reuters reports. Even Turkey’s bourse rose 1.3% after falling more than 3% on Tuesday after its central bank chose not to raise rates, defying analysts expectations. Analysts are crediting the respite to a slip in the USD amid uncertainty yesterday over how trade talks between the US and Europe are expected to go.

…a very short respite: The pendulum for today could very likely swing in favor of a strengthening USD today, after US President Donald Trump and European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker announced they would hold discussions on eliminating the tariffs and subsidies, according to the Wall Street Journal (paywall).

As for that trade war with China, the Trump administration continued to double down by threatening to slap tariffs on all cars imported, Bloomberg reports.

Other emerging highlights this morning include the preliminary results from Pakistan’s elections, as former cricketer turned politician Imran Khan took an early lead, edging in front of jailed former premier Nawaz Sharif, according to Bloomberg. Results, however, hint that Khan’s Movement for Justice party is failing to capture a parliamentary majority, amid allegations by Sherif’s Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz of election rigging.

We will be privy to the longest lunar eclipse of the 21st century tomorrow, and Cairo is apparently one of the best spots from which to view the blood moon, according to Ahram Online. The eclipse, which will begin at 6pm CLT tomorrow, will last about six hours, including nearly two hours of moon being entirely under Earth’s shadow.

PSA: temperatures are expected to drop 3-4°C today, head of the Egyptian Meteorological Authority Ahmed Abdel Aal tells Ahram Online. Cairo will see a daytime high of 37°C today, but humidity is expected to remain high.

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