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Monday, 25 June 2018

What we’re tracking on 25 June 2018

We have another Accidental Legislation Issue this morning as the House of Representatives kicks into overdrive before it winds down for summer recess. Look for more of the same today after the general assembly passed a number of laws and funding agreements yesterday. President Abdel Fattah El Sisi also signed into a law a number of key business-related laws, including the Ride-Hailing Apps Act and amendments to the Industrial Development Authority Act.

One of the chief trends we’re seeing: The taxman wants you to pay your share. The imposition of the VAT on a wide range of online and offline activities is one of the trends we’re seeing in the recently-passed bills. We have more on yesterday’s legislative news Speed Round, below.

But no, the government isn’t going to tax your iPhone: Finance Minister Mohamed Maait brushed off as “rumor” reports on social media claiming that the government will be imposing additional taxes on iPhone users (watch; runtime: 0:54). He also dismissed entirely reports suggesting that the government has plans to impose new income taxes.

Expect the spate of legislative news to wind down this week: MPs will be off for the coming few days, returning after the start of the new state fiscal year on 1 July, according to Al Mal, which cites a report by the state news agency.

The Madbouly Cabinet should unveil its policy and legislative agenda when the House reconvenes next week. Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly told the press yesterday that this should happen before 4 July, but the date hasn’t yet been set. Madbouly was expected to present his plan last Saturday, but decided to give his newly-sworn in ministers more time to prepare.

Economists see interest rates to be left on hold: Economists polled by the local press widely see interest rates being left on hold when the central bank’s Monetary Policy Committee meets on Thursday, largely on the back of the recent subsidy cuts, OPEC’s recent view on ramping up production, and the US Federal Reserve raising interest rates. For the most part, they don’t see inflation rising in the next few months to over 4%. Economist Reham El Desouky sees the annual inflation growth to be limited to an average 2-3% over the coming two months. She said she won’t be surprised if the CBE actually raises rates, but any hike wouldn’t exceed 100 bps, she said. Beltone Financial lead economist Alia Mamdouh sees inflation at 3-4% in the next three months, while Pharos Holding head of research Radwa El Swaify sees it at 1-3.5%. She expects the CBE to leave interest rates on hold until October.

Erdogan has declared victory in Turkey in an election that will also give him new powers as Ankara becomes home to a presidential system, scrapping the office of the prime minister under controversial constitutional changes passed last year. Naturally, the Muslim Brotherhood is rejoicing. Reuters and the Financial Times have more.

In miscellany this morning:

  • Mifid II has led to an exodus of sellside analysts, and the result is that the “quality of research is getting thinner and thinner.” Analysts are leaving as research comes under pressure after Mifid II required banks to unbundle the cost of research and trading services they offer investors. (FT)
  • The largest US banks have passed the first round of their annual stress tests; the second round takes place this coming Thursday. (WSJ)
  • Another volley in US-China trade war coming? The Donald, already embroiled in a trade war with China, plans “new curbs on Chinese investment” and technology exports to Beijing. (WSJ)
  • Cheating on school exams: It’s not just Shou Ming. Algeria tried to turn off the internet last week for an hour a day as students sat for end-of-year examinations.

Stink watch: If you, like us, are trying to get back into a workout routine post-Ramadan, you’ll want to go back a month or so to the New York Times’ Smarter Living column and reread How to clean your gross workout gear.

The World Cup match most of us don’t want to watch, but will, is today at 4:00pm CLT. Egypt will go head-to-head with Saudi Arabia today to see who won’t be dead last in Group A.

National team coach Hector Cuper says he’s determined to “bow out of the World Cup in style,” according to the National. Past performance not withstanding and with Salah looking like he’s in better shape, we are certainly expecting (but definitely praying) we won’t be humiliated. The Saudis say their three-pronged game plan involves “containing” Salah.

Expect heavy traffic in the hour before the match — plenty of companies are letting staff go at 3pm to give them sufficient time to park themselves in front of a screen before the kickoff. Don’t worry: You’re not alone in bemoaning this: Trading (and, we suspect, all non-restaurant business activity) plunges during games. “An analysis of trading data from 15 global stock exchanges carried out during the 2010 World Cup—which was held in South Africa—found that trading volume dropped by roughly 33% from normal levels during games,” the Wall Street Journal noted a while back.

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