The World Bank’s Economic Outlook April 2018 report (pdf) sees Egypt’s real GDP growing 5% in FY2018 and on track to climb to 5.8% by FY2020. “Growth is expected to be driven by resilient private consumption and investment, in addition to a gradual pickup in exports (notably from tourism and gas),” the report says. The IMF expects the budget deficit to narrow to 9.8% of GDP in FY2018. “This is slightly higher than initially-budgeted, due to larger interest payments, higher international oil prices, and larger-than-budgeted exchange rates.” The report acknowledges that fiscal consolidation has gotten a shot in the arm from the increases in VAT revenues and energy subsidy cuts. The current account deficit is expected to drop to 4.9% of GDP this year, from 6.6% of GDP in FY2017. The report also sees consumer price inflation reaching 22.1% in FY2018, then to 14.0% in FY2019 and 12.0% in FY2020. Annual headline inflation rates dropped to 13.1% in March, the lowest they’ve been in almost two years.

These figures are not that far off the finance Ministry’s targets, which sees GDP growing 5.2% in FY2017-18 (which ends in June) and rising to 5.8% in FY2018-19. The budget deficit for the current fiscal year is projected to narrow to 9.8%, with expectations it will fall further to 8.4% in FY2018-19.

Extreme poverty in Egypt has practically been eradicated, notes the report. “Using the national poverty threshold, about a third (27.8%) of the population was below the poverty line in 2015.”

The report does note the toll inflation has taken on purchasing power of households, which it says is curbing “positive spillovers of economic growth and taking a toll on social and economic conditions.” It also notes the disparity in distribution of poverty, with the poverty rate in rural Upper Egypt about 3x that of cities. “Recent increases in allowances of the main social programs have helped weather the effects of inflation, but imperfect coverage and targeting leave some groups unprotected.”