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Wednesday, 18 April 2018

What we’re tracking on 18 April 2018

Look for plenty of talk today on the state of the global economy as the IMF and World Bank spring meetings continue in Washington, DC. Egypt’s delegation to the semi-annual festival of hand-wringing includes Finance Minister Amr El Garhy, Central Bank Governor Tarek Amer and Investment Minister Sahar Nasr. Today’s schedule includes everything from the release of the Global Financial Stability Report to a talk on big data and machine learning in economic forecasting. IMF boss Christine Lagarde will hold a press conference tomorrow (Thursday), as will World Bank President Jim Yong Kim. You can check out the schedule for the gathering here on the event website.

Uber, Careem appeal hearing scheduled on 15 May: The Administrative Court will hold its first hearing in Uber and Careem’s appeal against the court’s previous ruling to revoke the companies’ licenses on 15 May, said Mahmoud Abdel Hamid, the head of the white taxis association that launched the suit in the first place, according to Al Mal. The court’s initial ruling was suspended last week by the Court of Urgent Matters, giving both companies legal breathing room to operate until the Higher Administrative Court reaches a final ruling on the matter. Meanwhile, the Ismail government is trying to rush the Ride-Hailing Apps Act through the House of Representatives.

Abraaj could resign as manager of its USD 1 bn healthcare fund. The Dubai-based emerging markets private equity giant is reportedly developing a plan that “seeks to swap … Abraaj with an interim manager and then a permanent replacement … Other options include turning the fund into a company or a self-governing fund,” the Financial Times reports. The news comes after the healthcare fund’s annual meeting with LPs in London “went badly …there was shouting,” according to an attendee. The healthcare fund has hobbled the until-recently high-flying firm after four of its LPs, including the International Finance Corporation, raised questions about funds that had been drawn down, but not deployed. The firm has reportedly since “admitted to drawing on investors’ funds for ‘general corporate purposes’, albeit within the terms of the fund agreement, people close to the company say,” according to the salmon-colored paper.

“The rise of Saudi Arabia and Egypt as the top Middle East choices for equity investors is taking a toll on Dubai,” writes Filipe Pacheco for Bloomberg. Trade volumes on the Dubai Financial Market fell 57% below its 15-day average to USD 24 mn on Monday, the lowest since September 2015. The DFM General Index dropped about 7% in 2018. In contrast, the EGX 30 has gained more than 18% “as investors applaud economic reforms and government plans to offer stakes in public-owned companies.” Saudi stocks have climbed more than 12% this year with foreign investors as net buyers for 15 straight weeks on the back of an expected EM classification by MSCI among other reasons. The two “are very interesting markets to look at now” compared with the United Arab Emirates, said Issam Kassabieh, senior financial analyst at Mena Corp. Financial Services in Dubai.

What’s wrong with Dubai? The bottom line is that it’s a bit bland and thin, with the consensus on the buy side being that “the banking and real estate companies that dominate Dubai’s bourse offer little in the way of triggers to trade their stock, with a few exceptions.”

Meanwhile, the gang at Ashmore has “lured the strongest inflows since 2013” on emerging markets demand, the Financial Times says, with appetite strong for both equities and fixed income offerings. The same piece, a brief entry in FastFT, also notes that Goldman Sachs is similarly upbeat about EM these days.

Fintech people, read this: For folks in banking and finance who keep a close eye on the startup world, the must-read this morning is How JPMorgan’s CIO decides which startups to partner with, which to invest in, and which to outright buy, courtesy Business Insider.

Also on fintech this morning: Egypt’s banking sector could be Ground Zero for a fintech revolution, writes Damian Radcliffe for Dubai-based Heat Sink. With a population of around 100 mn, the country has only 14 mn bank accounts and a similar number of postal service savings accounts, says AUC School Business’ Ayman Ismail, and the banking industry’s innate conservatism has a lot to do with the under-penetration of financial services. But the central bank’s financial inclusion initiative and drives into fintech by top lenders such as CIB is setting the groundwork for change.

Are you investing or working in tech? Or just find the “ecosystem” (God help us, but we hate that word) fascinating? Go read the Financial Times’ Big Read Start-up republic: Can Iran’s booming tech sector thrive? It’s a fascinating look at a country about which we all know too little.

Elsewhere this morning:

  • The US and North Korea are inching toward a summit, with five potential venues under consideration after CIA director Mike Pompeo made a top-secret visit to Pyongyang over the Easter weekend to meet North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, who remains the favorite global boogeyman of our resident 10-year-old. (Washington Post | New York Times)
  • The Financial Times’ columnists are obsessed this morning with (a) long work hours in the finance industry after a Moelis exec let loose a snarky email after finding an insufficient number of staff not at their desks after midnight and (b) when to know you don’t have what it takes to be senior management.
  • If you’re an old like some of us, you have our permission to feel down in the dumps for the next two minutes: Former US First Lady Barbara Bush has died at age 92. We like the NYT’s obit, and you’ll find others like it as well as hagiography and hit jobs on front pages all just about every US newspaper today.

Online sales of last-minute tickets for the 2018 FIFA World Cup in Russia will begin today at 12:00 Moscow time (11:00 CLT), according to FIFA. Football fans worldwide will be able to purchase tickets via FIFA’s online ticketing website, subject to availability and on a first-come, first-served basis.

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