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Sunday, 15 April 2018

Look for a busy week on diplomacy front as Arab leaders meet in KSA following Syria air strikes.

Otherwise, expect the next couple of days to be heavier than usual on news from the diplomatic front:

The United States, Britain and France launched joint airstrikes on Syria on Saturday morning, the biggest international escalation in the seven-year conflict and the sharpest intervention yet by the West. The three countries launched 105 missiles overnight in retaliation for a suspected poison gas attack in the Syrian town of Douma a week ago, targeting three chemical weapons facilities, including a research and development center in Damascus, Reuters reports. US President Donald Trump when on later in the day to declare “Mission accomplished,” echoing a phrase one of his predecessors came to regret. Trump also turned his attention on Iran and Syria, saying “To Iran, and to Russia, I ask: What kind of a nation wants to be associated with the mass murder of innocent men, women, and children?” When it comes to Syria, “Russia must decide if it will continue down this dark path, or if it will join with civilized nations as a force for stability and peace,” he added, according to a White House statement.

Egypt’s Foreign Ministry issued a statement expressing concern at the escalation of the conflict. The statement did condemn the use of chemical weapons.

President Abdel Fattah El Sisi is in Saudi Arabia today for an Arab League Summit at which we believe Iran and Qatar (the latter is not officially on the agenda) will be among the top issues discussed. El Sisi has already met on the sidelines of the gathering with his Palestinian counterpart, Mahmoud Abbas, and UN-backed Libyan Prime Minister Fayez Al Sarraj.

This gathering comes as US President Donald Trump is pushing for the end of the Arab Quartet’s boycott of Qatar, reportedly on fears of rising Iranian influence on the statelet. During a phone call this month with Saudi Arabia’s King Salman, Trump demanded a resolution within three weeks. The US leader is hoping to reach a settlement on Qatar before a 12 May deadline he imposed for the European Union to agree on a revised version of the 2015 nuclear agreement with Iran, Reuters reports. The quartet remains unswayed and is maintaining its requirement that Doha abide by its 13 demands to reinstate diplomatic ties, the newswire reports.

The Qatar rivalry played out in the international bond market last week as both Saudi Arabia and Qatar issued bonds nearly simultaneously. Qatar appears on track to sell USD 12 bn of debt across five-, 10- and 30-year maturities, according to the Financial Times. Investors appear to have filed USD 53 bn in orders for the issuance, topping the USD 28 bn in orders for Saudi’s USD 11 bn issuance.

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