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Tuesday, 6 March 2018

What we’re tracking on 6 March 2018

Greetings from the second day of the EFG Hermes One on One in Dubai. The world’s largest frontier and emerging markets investor conference got off to a busy start yesterday with a packed morning of panels and interviews, the largest poll of frontier and emerging markets investors and executives, and an afternoon of company meetings. More than 500 fund and portfolio managers from 255 global institutions with aggregate AUM north of USD 8 tn will meet face-to-face today and tomorrow with C-suite execs from 173 companies spanning 26 countries.

The largest poll of frontier and emerging markets investors and companies was among yesterday’s highlights. More than 990 attendees voted, with highlights including:

  • 75% of attendees expect the US Federal Reserve to hike rates 2-3 times this year. Some 42% expect just two rate increases, a bit behind consensus, says EFG Hermes strategy boss Simon Kitchen.
  • Emerging markets will outperform the S&P this year, say 77% of respondents, who were almost evenly split on whether the S&P would close up or down by year’s end.
  • Banks will see the best returns in Saudi Arabia, respondents said, in line with what Kitchen says is the consensus.
  • Egypt will be the best-performing MENA market this year. Some 47% of voters tipped Omm El Donia, edging out Saudi Arabia as the second pick at 30%.
  • Kuwait will outperform among frontier markets, placing ahead of Pakistan, Vietnam and Argentina.
  • Pakistan is the country most likely to see a 10% of greater currency devaluation this year, respondents said. Devaluations in Pakistan and Kenya are persistent questions from investors, Kitchen notes.
  • 65% of respondents see tech stocks outperforming global commodity names on a view year view, and 60% of attendees voting saw blockchain technology as “a mortal threat to the traditional banking industry.”

You can download the full survey results here as a pdf.

We have the full rundown on yesterday’s events in today’s special Spotlight section, after Speed Round, below.

Not a public markets person? You’ll still want to check out our report from Dubai: We have tech stuff for you, with the last panel yesterday having focused on “disruption” in frontier markets. Appearances by top execs from Careem; Mohamed Alabbar’s e-commerce platform Noon; the largest investor in education in Egypt, CIRA; and Vietnamese e-commerce platform Mobile World.

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman wraps up his three-day visit to Egypt today. MbS is off to London next, where he’s expected to sign agreements worth bns of USD. We have more in the Speed Round, below.

Amr El Monayer resigned yesterday as deputy finance minister in charge of tax policy. Prime Minister Sherif Ismail accepted El Monayer’s resignation, effective immediately, Al Masry Al Youm reports.

The House of Representatives will be going into recess at the end of today’s sessions until after the presidential elections later this month, Ahram Gate reports.

The 2018 international Sustainable Industrial Areas (SIA) International Conference gets underway today at the Nile Ritz Carlton. The gathering is being held under the auspices of the Trade and Industry Ministry in partnership between the East Port Said Development Company. More than 400 delegates are now registered to attend, c. 100 of whom will be arriving from outside Egypt.

Sudan’s ambassador to Egypt Abdel Mahmoud Abdel Halim arrived in Cairo yesterday to resume his official duties for the first time since January, sources tell Reuters’ Arabic service. Abdel Halim had been recalled “for consultations” in January amid souring ties between the two countries over disputes in sovereignty over the Halayeb Triangle and “Egyptian suspicions of a Sudan-Turkey naval agreement.

US President Donald Trump says he may visit Israel in May for the opening of the new US Embassy in Jerusalem, Reuters reports.

Enterprise is a daily publication of Enterprise Ventures LLC, an Egyptian limited liability company (commercial register 83594), and a subsidiary of Inktank Communications. Summaries are intended for guidance only and are provided on an as-is basis; kindly refer to the source article in its original language prior to undertaking any action. Neither Enterprise Ventures nor its staff assume any responsibility or liability for the accuracy of the information contained in this publication, whether in the form of summaries or analysis. © 2022 Enterprise Ventures LLC.

Enterprise is available without charge thanks to the generous support of HSBC Egypt (tax ID: 204-901-715), the leading corporate and retail lender in Egypt; EFG Hermes (tax ID: 200-178-385), the leading financial services corporation in frontier emerging markets; SODIC (tax ID: 212-168-002), a leading Egyptian real estate developer; SomaBay (tax ID: 204-903-300), our Red Sea holiday partner; Infinity (tax ID: 474-939-359), the ultimate way to power cities, industries, and homes directly from nature right here in Egypt; CIRA (tax ID: 200-069-608), the leading providers of K-12 and higher level education in Egypt; Orascom Construction (tax ID: 229-988-806), the leading construction and engineering company building infrastructure in Egypt and abroad; Moharram & Partners (tax ID: 616-112-459), the leading public policy and government affairs partner; Palm Hills Developments (tax ID: 432-737-014), a leading developer of commercial and residential properties; Mashreq (tax ID: 204-898-862), the MENA region’s leading homegrown personal and digital bank; and Industrial Development Group (IDG) (tax ID:266-965-253), the leading builder of industrial parks in Egypt.