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Monday, 19 February 2018

Economists expect a lull in monetary easing over the summer as subsidy cuts kick in, look to 300-400 bps in total rate cuts this year

Economists expect a lull in monetary easing over the summer as subsidy cuts kick in, look to 300-400 bps in total rate cuts this year: Arqaam Capital expects another 100 bps cut at the CBE’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting in March. Rates are expected to hold steady through to August ahead of planned subsidy cuts due around the beginning of FY2018-19. The investment bank sees interest rates falling by another 200 bps after August. The lower interest rates, coupled with the subsidy cuts, should see the fiscal deficit improve sharply over the coming two years and the primary balance on track to recording a small surplus in FY2017-18, the firm said in a research note on Sunday (pdf).

CI Capital is also anticipating another rate cut of 100 bps followed by a hold until the inflationary impact of the summer subsidy cuts. CI Capital Asset Management economist Noaman Khaled tells Al Arabiya in an interview (watch, runtime: 6:42) that interest rates should decline further by 4Q2018 for a total cut of 300 bps in 2018. He described last Thursday’s cuts as one of the most important economic events in Egypt of the last three years.

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