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Monday, 12 February 2018

What we’re tracking this week

It’s interest rate week, and the folks on the sell side aren’t so certain we’ll see a rate cut: The central bank’s Monetary Policy Committee meets on Thursday to review rates.

Our friends at Pharos think the MPC is most likely to maintain rates, but if a cut does come, it will be limited to 200 bps at most. Check out this morning’s Pharos View for their house position, or tap here to read the full report (pdf).

Meanwhile, Arqaam Capital writes in a Sunday research note (pdf) note that it is more than likely the central bank will cut rates at its March meeting, as it forecasts declining annual inflation will reach 14.8% in February, bringing inflation within the CBE’s 10-16% target range.

We’re still playing armchair economists here and suggesting that a rate cut is possible on Thursday. It is the only opportunity to declare victory in the “war on inflation” ahead of the presidential poll: Voters are due to turn out on 26-28 March, while the March MPC meeting falls on the 29th.

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