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Monday, 12 February 2018

The Market Yesterday

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Pharos Holding - http://www.pharosholding.com/

EGP / USD CBE market average: Buy 17.6185 | Sell 17.7185
EGP / USD at CIB:
Buy 17.58 | Sell 17.68
EGP / USD at NBE: Buy 17.58 | Sell 17.68

EGX30 (Sunday): 14,828 (-0.6%)
Turnover: EGP 619 mn (45% BELOW the 90-day average)
EGX 30 year-to-date: -1.3%

THE MARKET ON SUNDAY: The EGX30 ended Sunday’s session down 0.6%. CIB, the index heaviest constituent closed down 0.3%. EGX30’s top performing constituents were GB Auto up 5.0%; ACC up 1.1%; and Egyptian Resorts up 0.7%. Yesterday’s worst performing stocks were Egyptian Iron and Steel down 5.5%; Kima down 3.6%; and Orascom Telecom Media and Technology down 2.9%. The market turnover was EGP 619 mn, and local investors were the sole net buyers.

Foreigners: Net Short | EGP -4.1 mn
Regional: Net Short | EGP -20.9 mn
Domestic: Net Long | EGP +25 mn

Retail: 52.7% of total trades | 52.6% of buyers | 52.8% of sellers
Institutions: 47.3% of total trades | 47.4% of buyers | 47.2% of sellers

Foreign: 9.3% of total | 9.0% of buyers | 9.5% of sellers
Regional: 7.2% of total | 5.9% of buyers | 8.5% of sellers
Domestic: 83.5% of total | 85.1% of buyers | 82.0% of sellers


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PHAROS VIEW

MPC to maintain rates, but if cuts do come, they’ll be limited to 2% at most: While The inflation deceleration lends itself well to projections of a coming interest rate cut, there is no pressure on the CBE, however, for these to be imminent due to the RGDP growth projections, the less tightness in monetary policy, and the drop of government’s finance cost. Even if the CBE did cut the interest, it won’t be significant since IMF has declared that the priority in the short run for Egypt is to curb inflation. There are three potential risks to determine the timing of policy rate cut: the recent international oil price, the higher real absorption or domestic demand growth, and the projected pace of the monetary policy normalization in advanced economies. Hence, Pharos believes that there are high chances of maintaining rates in the upcoming meeting, or if we witness a cut, it will be limited to c.1.0%-2.0%. You can read the full report here (pdf).

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WTI: USD 59.2 (-3.19%)
Brent: USD 62.79 (-3.12%)

Natural Gas (Nymex, futures prices) USD 2.58 MMBtu, (-4.19%, March 2018 contract)
Gold: USD 1,315.7 / troy ounce (-0.25%)

TASI: 7,327.15 (-1.03%) (YTD: +1.4%)
ADX: 4,584.41 (-0.33%) (YTD: +4.23%)
DFM: 3,320.58 (-0.15%) (YTD: -1.47%)
KSE Weighted Index: 408.87 (-0.35%) (YTD: +1.86%)
QE: 9,044.82 (+1.7%) (YTD: +6.12%)
MSM: 4,994.02 (-0.25%) (YTD: -2.06%)
BB: 1,333.56 (+0.04%) (YTD: +0.14%)

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