Back to the complete issue
Sunday, 11 February 2018

Inflation drops to 17.1% in January

Monetary policy victory lap time? Annual inflation dropped to 17.1% in January from 21.9% in December, CAPMAS announced on Thursday, according to Reuters. Core inflation also fell to 14.35% from 19.86% a month earlier. The CAPMAS report notes that vegetable prices dropped by 3.3% m-o-m nationwide, with food overall dropping 0.5% m-o-m.

Finance Minister Amr El Garhy told the press yesterday he sees the rate falling to 10-13% by the end of the year. Inflation levels are expected to decrease gradually over the next three years to reach 7.1% by 2021, a ministry report picked up by Al Borsa says.

Does the drop portend an interest rate cut on Thursday? Not necessarily, Pharos Securities Brokerage Head of Research Radwa El Swaify says. “We believe that there is still a high chance of maintaining rates at this meeting. If we see cuts, it will be within the 0.5-1% range.” She told Bloomberg that she expects a “significant interest rate drop” in 2H2018, as inflation could hit 13% as early as June if the current trend is maintained.

Enterprise is a daily publication of Enterprise Ventures LLC, an Egyptian limited liability company (commercial register 83594), and a subsidiary of Inktank Communications. Summaries are intended for guidance only and are provided on an as-is basis; kindly refer to the source article in its original language prior to undertaking any action. Neither Enterprise Ventures nor its staff assume any responsibility or liability for the accuracy of the information contained in this publication, whether in the form of summaries or analysis. © 2022 Enterprise Ventures LLC.

Enterprise is available without charge thanks to the generous support of HSBC Egypt (tax ID: 204-901-715), the leading corporate and retail lender in Egypt; EFG Hermes (tax ID: 200-178-385), the leading financial services corporation in frontier emerging markets; SODIC (tax ID: 212-168-002), a leading Egyptian real estate developer; SomaBay (tax ID: 204-903-300), our Red Sea holiday partner; Infinity (tax ID: 474-939-359), the ultimate way to power cities, industries, and homes directly from nature right here in Egypt; CIRA (tax ID: 200-069-608), the leading providers of K-12 and higher level education in Egypt; Orascom Construction (tax ID: 229-988-806), the leading construction and engineering company building infrastructure in Egypt and abroad; Moharram & Partners (tax ID: 616-112-459), the leading public policy and government affairs partner; Palm Hills Developments (tax ID: 432-737-014), a leading developer of commercial and residential properties; Mashreq (tax ID: 204-898-862), the MENA region’s leading homegrown personal and digital bank; Industrial Development Group (IDG) (tax ID:266-965-253), the leading builder of industrial parks in Egypt; Hassan Allam Properties (tax ID:  553-096-567), one of Egypt’s most prominent and leading builders; and Saleh, Barsoum & Abdel Aziz (tax ID: 220-002-827), the leading audit, tax and accounting firm in Egypt.