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Wednesday, 17 January 2018

What we’re tracking on 17 July 2018

We’re on day two of EFG Hermes’ Egypt Day in Cairo. Yesterday saw President Abdel Fattah El Sisi meet with representatives (pdf) of 26 regional and international investment funds. Investors have already had sit-downs with Central Bank Governor Tarek Amer, Finance Minister Amr El Garhy and other members of cabinet. Fund and portfolio managers with aggregate AUM north of USD 10 tn will continue to meet with senior execs at major local companies today as the three-day conference wraps up.

CEOs of Egypt’s largest companies expect the economy to do well in 2018–and say they have seen an improvement in business conditions, according to EFG Hermes’ CEO Poll, which took place at the firm’s CEO dinner the night before last. “The majority (60.7%) of attendees also expect to hire more workers in 2018. Most attendees (54%) saw high interest rates as the biggest constraint facing investments in Egypt.” Most of the CEOs polled said they would invest in listed equities in 2018, followed by T-bills. Zohr is expected to have the biggest positive impact on the economy, followed by new FDI, and tourism. The government should prioritize education spending in the next 10 year, the respondents said overwhelmingly, eclipsing spending on infrastructure, healthcare, and security. Despite security spending being only seen a top priority by 7.7% of the respondents, the largest number of respondents see geopolitical risks and terrorism (50% combined) as the key risk facing the Egyptian economy in 2018. Tap here to read the full survey results.

Ethiopian Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn is expected to arrive in Egypt today for a three-day visit that has been postponed twice. The prime minister is scheduled to meet with President Abdel Fattah El Sisi, and the two leaders will participate tomorrow in the sixth session of the Higher Joint Egyptian-Ethiopian Committee, which began prep meetings yesterday, according to a Foreign Ministry statement. Pundits are watching to see whether the meeting will prove to be turning point in the stalled negotiations between Cairo and Addis Ababa over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. Desalegn will also meet with House Speaker Ali Abdel Aal and members of the House African Affairs Committee, but will not address the House of Representatives as previously planned, parliamentary sources say, according to Ahram Gate.

The global (read: American) business community is talking about: The potential breakup of GE. The conglomerate suggested yesterday it is “looking aggressively” at spinoff for its power, healthcare and aviation units — the latter two of which are very active in our neck of the woods. The process, in fact, “could result in many, many different permutations, including separately traded assets really in any one of our units,” the company’s CEO said. The move comes after GE announced more than USD 11 bn in charges from its long-term care insurance portfolio and new US tax laws, the Financial Times reports. “Some Wall Street analysts saw Tuesday’s remarks as a sign that GE may already have figured out valuation, timing or disclosure requirements for a spin-off,” Reuters added.

So, this is a breakup? CNBC thinks say, and quotes sources that say it’s likely to come as early as this spring. But the New York Times’ DealBook column counters that while a spring announcement is probably in the cards, it is “unlikely that [CEO John] Flannery will be the one to break up the 125-year-old conglomerate. It’s more likely that Mr. Flannery and his team will consider unique ways of separating G.E.’s core business units without actually splitting them completely apart.” BloombergGadfly, meanwhile, sees that “reasons for keeping the industrial giant together look increasingly tenuous” and Reuters Breakingviews sees that “legacy losses reinforce the case for a breakup.” Are you paying attention, big media and tech companies? Look for the academic business literature to start mulling once more questions about whether there is a natural limit to the size of a corporation.

BlackRock wants you to start paying attention to “societal impact” if you want it to invest. “Lawrence Fink, the boss of the world’s largest money manager, told corporate chiefs to get ready for BlackRock to become a more assertive shareholder and called on them to better articulate how their organizations contribute to society,” the Wall Street Journal writes this morning.w

Also worth noting this morning:

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