Egypt will continue to maintain an aggressive stance toward Ethiopia on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) in an attempt to force Ethiopia to capitulate to Cairo’s demands, but the dam will be completed, according to a Stratfor Worldview report (paywall). Upstream countries have shifted the balance of power among Nile basin countries and are “beginning to challenge Egypt’s leverage over the use of the river’s resources.” This, according to Stratfor, leaves Egypt backed into a corner in negotiations and its ability to get Ethiopia to grant concessions increasingly limited. This will force Egypt back to “the negotiating table with Ethiopia because once the dam is built, Egypt must coordinate its dam operations with Ethiopia’s as the new reservoir is filled.” The report concludes that “in any case, Cairo’s lack of options, its reduced ability to unite with Sudan against upstream countries and the dam’s continuing construction have shown Egypt that its old tactics are declining and that upstream countries are gaining leverage in Nile Basin water politics.”