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Thursday, 22 June 2017

House signs off on budget in record timing

In a dash to get to Eid break, the House has signed off on the budget in record time: The House of Representatives broke a legislative land speed record on Wednesday when it signed off on the Ismail government’s EGP 1.206 tn budget for FY2017-18 after only two rounds of debate on the floor of Parliament, Al Mal reports. A quick refresher on the provisions of Amr El Garhy’s latest: The nation’s largest-ever budget targets a primary surplus of 0.3% for the first time in years and sees GDP growing by at least 4.6% in the next fiscal year. State spending will be backed by higher tax revenues, including by a 1 ppt bump in the baseline value-added tax to 14%.

The new budget sees public spending rising 21.3% as the government earmarks larger sums for healthcare, education, higher education, and research (together about 10.3% of GDP). EGP 24.8 bn has been earmarked for state investment in healthcare, an increase of 15% over last year’s budget, while the government will invest EGP 14.4 bn in education and training, according to Al Mal. (Those figures are for state investment in the sectors as distinct from budget support for ongoing operating costs.) EGP 3.5 bn was earmarked for the rehabilitation of slums. Tap here and here for our full breakdown of the budget.

The FY 2017-18 budget includes EGP 75 bn spending to shore-up the social safety net ordered by President Abdel Fattah El Sisi on Tuesday, according to a Finance Ministry statement. These include increasing monthly food subsidy allowances on ration cards to EGP 50 from EGP 21 for each cardholder. The Ministry says the earmarks aim to ease the impact of the economic reform program on Egyptian households. 90% of citizens will directly benefit from the increase, Finance Minister Amr El Garhy noted.

Even with all the increases in social spending, El Garhy maintains that the government can meet its budget deficit target of 9.1% of GDP.

No new taxes are in the pipeline and there’s no plan to hike the rates of existing levies to support increased welfare spending,Vice Minister of Finance Amr El Monayer told Al Masry Al Youm. Some of the new spending was already accounted for and approved in the budget, Vice Minister of Finance Mohamed Maait added, while others among the president’s pledges can easily be accommodated within the current budget. Still, the Supply Ministry claims increased spending on subsidies came as a surprise and says it is now scrambling to meet the increased demand for goods, according to statements attributed to ministry spokesperson Mamdouh Ramadan by Al Shorouk. Prior to El Sisi’s welfare package, total spending on subsidies was due to grow 19% in the fiscal year starting July 1. That comes as petrol subsidies are expected to fall to about 33% of total subsidy spending, signaling a fuel price hike is in the cards sometime in the new year.

Offsetting the cost of subsidy increases by raising prices? Some of the cost of new welfare outlays will be recoupled by repricing subsidized goods closer to market norms, Supply Ministry officials tell Al Shorouk. The EGP 50 allowance will also be issued to each individual registered on a single subsidy card, the source also said, adding that there are no imminent plans to change the bread point system.

The bump in welfare spending under the new budget received extensive coverage in the foreign press, with some, including the Associated Press and Bloomberg, suggesting the move was taken to offset the unpopularity of the agreement to hand Tiran and Sanafir to Saudi Arabia.

…Separately, the Finance Ministry announced that the government recorded a budget deficit equivalent to 8.3% of GDP in 10M2016-17, according to Al Masry Al Youm. That’s about EGP 283 bn, if you’re keeping track at home.

Also on Wednesday: The House also signed off on the government’s 2017-2020 sustainabledevelopment plan, which, among other things sees GDP climbing to a high of 6% in 2020. It also gave a preliminary nod to the National Elections Act, which mandates judicial supervision of the national elections regulator for a 10-year period, according to AMAY.

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