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Tuesday, 9 May 2017

Market implies that Egypt’s credit rating should be higher

Egypt’s performance on the bond market merits a credit upgrade, Ahmed Namatalla and Ahmed Feteha write for Bloomberg. “The nation’s debt has had an implied rating of B2 or better for almost three months, according to Moody’s Analytics, one level higher than its official grade.” Egypt’s current credit rating at Moody’s Investors Service is B3, six levels below investment grade, similar to its B- score at S&P Global Ratings. The nation is rated one notch higher at Fitch Ratings. Aberdeen Asset Management’s Anthony Simond says, “Egypt has traded very well due to the positive reform momentum, IMF assistance and general bullish view toward emerging markets … If the government can keep its focus and not water down its plans, then an upgrade should be possible within six to 12 months.” The market is probably right and leading the rating agencies, says Stephen Bailey-Smith, investment strategist at Danish outfit Kolding. He says “the nation’s upcoming bond sale “will do well, as the search for yield is still solidly entrenched in market psyche.”

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