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Sunday, 9 April 2017

Does the spike in EM debt risk a banking crisis?

Does the spike in EM debt risk a banking crisis? Investor demand for emerging market debt continues to soar despite bond yields nearing historic lows, writes Carolyn Cui for the Wall Street Journal. EM governments and companies have sold USD 179 bn in USD-denominated debt this year through March 31, the most dollar debt ever raised in the first quarter and more than double the amount raised during the same period last year, according to data provider Dealogic. This primarily down to record low yields in developed countries and improved fundamentals, in part on the back of higher commodity prices. Yet the pace of the borrowing is worrying some analysts and investors who are concerned it will aggravate an already heavy debt load in emerging markets that has increased to its highest level since the financial crisis. Total emerging-market debt, including bank loans and bonds, reached 215% of these countries’ gross domestic products last year, up from 146% in 2006, according to the Institute of International Finance. The risks: Default and economic crises.

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