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Wednesday, 5 April 2017

EM currencies vulnerable this week?

What is happening with EM currencies?Emerging market currencies are vulnerable this week, Dimitra DeFotis writes in Barron’s, citing a report from Brown Brothers Harriman (BBH) global currency strategy team. “EM FX was mixed last week, and remains vulnerable as this week begins. The rebound in oil helped some, such as the Colombian peso (COP), the Russian ruble (RUB), and the Mexican peso (MXN). On the other hand, idiosyncratic political risks weighed on South Africa. That is likely to persist as the South African rand is trading at its weakest level since January 16 and is on track to test this year’s low,” the report notes. The BBH warning came despite The FT saying a few days ago that emerging market currencies are on course for their second best quarter in the last five years. Goldman Sachs analysts had said “together with the recent improvement in EM current account balances, we argue that EM economies are less susceptible to the funding shocks often associated with rising US interest rates.” Doing even better that EM currencies are stock, which were poised to clock their best quarter in five years.

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