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Sunday, 19 March 2017

Could Trump’s budget cuts impact aid to Egypt?

Cairo’s ties to Washington will be in the global media spotlight over the coming month. President Abdel Fattah El Sisi is heading to Washington, DC, in the first week of April to meet with US President Donald Trump, state-owned daily Al Ahram reports. The news comes as speculation mounts that Trump is playing ‘peacemaker’ between Cairo and Riyadh, as we note above, and will also take place as regional governments that receive about 62% of US foreign aid (30% is earmarked to MENA and 32% to sub-Saharan Africa) wonder what looming US budget cuts mean to them.

Could Trump’s budget cuts impact aid to Egypt? US President Donald Trump’s proposed fiscal budget for 2018 has included cuts to foreign aid and other diplomatic initiatives, which could possibly impact Egypt. Details on the cuts remain scant, but reports from the Wall Street Journal suggest that USAID, which funds a substantial amount of humanitarian aid to Egypt from the US, will see its budget allocation reduced. Funding for other humanitarian and climate change focused NGOs is also on the chopping block. The Trump administration has stated that it will shield the USD 3.1 bn in annual aid Israel receives from the US, but it is still evaluating what it will do with aid to Egypt and Jordan, Reuters reports. The US is committed to assistance to both Egypt and Israel under the Camp David peace accords, though the threat of suspension of that aid to Egypt had popped up a few times under the Obama administration. Aid from the US to countries had been anchored on fighting terrorism, according to Bloomberg, something which Trump has praised President Abdel Fattah El Sisi for. US support for the UN and its missions will also see a decline.

One person who could play a role in shaping where aid is cut is Egypt-born Dina Habib Powell, Trump’s deputy national security adviser for strategy, Politico reports. Powell is US President Donald Trump’s senior counselor for economic initiatives. In her new role, “Powell is expected to work closely with national security adviser H.R. McMaster and focus on long-term issues. She is also expected to help lead an interagency policy process working with Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, CIA Director Mike Pompeo and Defense Secretary James Mattis.”

Of particular local interest on the budget cut front is a hint in the New York Times a US Navy laboratory in Egypt could be on the chopping budgetary block. We’re taking this to mean the US Naval Medical Research Unit three (NAMRU-3), part of the US’s network of global sentinels against infectious diseases. NAMRU’s site was down at dispatch time, but you can learn more here about the history of the Cairo outpost (dating back to 1946).

And speaking of things that make America happy: We a have a permanent diplomatic mission to NATO now. President Abdel Fattah El Sisi issued a decree establishing an Egyptian permanent mission to NATO, Ahram Online reports. The decree followed a visit by NATO Military Committee Chairman Petr Pavel to Egypt earlier this month. Expect the news to be closely followed in Moscow, where officials are working overtime to regain market share in the global arms trade. The Wall Street Journal had a nice piece on that subject over the weekend, noting that Russia has made particular inroads with traditional US allies including Egypt and the UAE.

Still not enough coverage of US foreign policy for you? Go read Bloomberg or the Wall Street Journal on US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin’s visit to the G-20 this weekend, were the US made it clear that protectionism is going to be a hallmark of its trade policy going forward. It’s going to be an interesting few years, folks.

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