Is the EGP strengthening? From lows in the range of 19.50 to the greenback, the EGP has strengthened to an average sell rate of 17.99. But we’re getting conflicting signals on what’s behind the stronger EGP: Lower demand or better supply? A leading manufacturer tells us it’s a drying up of demand as companies lack EGP liquidity to acquire USD, saying his company has declined offers of USD for non-essential imports. On the other hand, a top exporter says it’s a combination of strong inflows into the formal banking system (including remittances) and early signs of better export receipts. We see continued pressure on the EGP through mid-to-late fall from the nexus of spending on energy imports ahead of and during summer, pre-Ramadan commodity imports, the hajj as well as summer travel and back-to-school demand. Demand should ease as Zohr comes online this fall. The wild card: A pickup in tourism if Russia makes a move this month as has been hinted. (More on the EGP in Last Night’s Talk Shows, below.)

Either way, the CBE wants us to know that it has cleared an unspecified backlog of investors looking to repatriate funds, according to an unnamed CBE official speaking with Bloomberg. The source did not clarify the volume of funds cleared, and Bloomberg speculates the statement may only refer to investors in stock and bonds who had at least USD 100 mn awaiting repatriation as of mid-January, says senior economist at Arqaam Capital Reham ElDesoky. “This is a positive signal to the market. It should spur more investment in equities and debt going forward,” she added.

NBE is still financing imports: Deputy Chairman of state-owned National Bank of Egypt (NBE) Yehia Aboul Fotouh denied the bank has stopped financing imports. He tells Reuters that NBE financed about USD 5 bn worth of imports since November and that the bank gathered around USD 2.8 bn from individuals since the EGP float.

The EGX is still “relatively cheap,” Ahmed Badr, MENA CEO at Renaissance Capital, tells Bloomberg TV (runtime 04:18). “You also have to look at why the market has been rallying … Investors realize that consumers are not doing that badly … were able to absorb inflation, so things are moving. You also have the EGP which started strengthening because you actually got a lot of inflows recently,” Badr explains. “The story has just started,” Badr says, “and I think this is a catalyst that is going to continue.” He says remittances are strong “and this is just the start,” adding that foreign currency inflows are going to continue to arrive. Another interest rate hike is “not unlikely,” Badr suggests, but given that “the currency started strengthening a bit,” he thinks the hike could be delayed. Badr says the informal economy has buoyed Egyptian consumers and helped them absorb the inflation shock.

Will the new cabinet be announced today? Prime Minister Sherif Ismail is due to present his new cabinet lineup to the House of Representatives on Monday, Mustafa Bakry tells Al Mal, while MP Mohamed Elsewedy says the lineup will be unveiled today, Al Masry Al Youm reports. Other conflicting reports in Al Shorouk and AMAY — both citing unnamed “government sources” — suggest we won’t hear about the new cabinet until Tuesday, with the prime minister sending in the new list tomorrow. The House looks set to have just one day to deliberate and decide on the cabinet. Bakry claims the shuffle will include at least 10 ministers, among them members of the economic team that has been driving Egypt’s reform program.

Are we cozying up to Lebanon? That’s the first conclusion to which we jump after picking up on Lebanese President Michel Aoun’s interview in Beirut with Al Ahram’s editor-in-chief ahead of Aoun’s visit to Egypt today. Also today, the Egyptian-Lebanese Business Forum kicks off in Cairo, Youm7 reports.

Egypt’s future apparently belongs to Japanese green juice. The domain EgyptTheFuture.com, the once high-profile home of the Egypt Economic Development Conference, is now promoting “green juice” in Japanese. A behind-the-scenes blame game sees the government pointing fingers at various subsidiaries of WPP Group, while an unnamed organizer of the EEDC tells AMAY the site was transferred to the International Cooperation Ministry, which allegedly failed to renew a one-year hosting agreement. The March 2015 EEDC was “executive produced” by Richard Attias & Associates, a WPP company.

Emerging markets “will suffer a fourth consecutive year of capital outflows in 2017, despite an upturn in the macroeconomic background and a surge in portfolio flows to EM equities and bonds in the early weeks of the year, the Institute of International Finance said on Thursday,” according to the Financial Times. Outflows from China will lead the trend, Reuters adds in its coverage. Bloomberg’s coverage of what the IFF is dubbing “the Trumpstorm” is here. The IIF report dropped the same day that EM specialists Ashmore Group said it is seeing rising demand for its products and a nearly 2x surge in net income, according to Reuters and the Financial Times.

Wait, Greece? Again? “Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras warned international lenders on Saturday not to heap new burdens on his country but said he believed the drawn-out bailout review with them would end well,” Reuters reports, putting a positive spin on comments headlined in the Financial Times as “Tsipras warns IMF and Germany over bailout talks.” The German press is taking a similar line. The talks roiled European markets last week and look set to take center stage again this week. At issue: The release of a tranche of funds from a EUR 86 bn bailout package that will allow Greece to make a EUR 7 bn debt paying in July.