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Sunday, 29 January 2017

What we’re tracking on 29 January 2017

It looks like Egypt will be hitting the bond market hard in 2017, as the USD 4 bn bond issue dominates the economic conversation over the long weekend. Last week’s roadshow saw Egypt’s three-tranche bonds 3x oversubscribed, with yields ranging from 6.1%-8.5%, according to statements by Finance Minister Amr El Garhy. Egypt could issue USD 5-6 bn “all in all” in eurobonds through 2017, El Garhy had said in a Bloomberg interview last November. We look to a presser today by El Garhy and Deputy Minister Ahmed Kouchouk, where he is expected to announce the results and details of the eurobond roadshow, according to AMAY.

All was quiet on 25 January, amidst reinforced security presence around main protest areas across the country. A number of people gathered in Tahrir Square to celebrate the anniversary, according to AMAY. Authorities also beefed-up security in the Sinai Peninsula, where an army soldier was killed and another was injured in separate attacks on forces in Rafah and Al-Arish on 25 January, AMAY reported.

US President Donald Trump’s initiation of his Muslim Ban (on Holocaust Remembrance day not less) was the prominent news item to come out of the international over the weekend.

Trump signed an executive order on Friday to “indefinitely” ban Syrian refugees from entering the United States and “temporarily suspend” immigration and visits from Iran, Iraq, Libya, Somalia, Sudan, and Yemen. The move has begun to be enforced worldwide, including in Egypt. While we are thankful that Egypt was spared, the move gives us no comfort. The Times also has a neat breakdown of the decision, complete with comments on excerpts from the order.

in one of the rare good news to come out of Trumpland, the Trump administration is considering adding the Muslim Brotherhood to the State Department and US Treasury lists of foreign terrorist organizations, unnamed sources told Reuters. The pushing faction is led by Trump’s National Security Advisor Michael Flynn. The other advisors argue that the Muslim Brotherhood has evolved peacefully in some countries, and believe such a move would complicate relations with Turkey.

President Abdel Fattah El Sisi is heading to Ethiopia today to participate in the 28th African Union Summit, on the sidelines of which El Sisi is expected to meet with his Sudanese and Ethiopian counterparts to discuss the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, Al Masry Al Youm reports. Foreign Affairs Minister Sameh Shoukry also flew to Addis Ababa and has met with a number of his African counterparts, according to the newspaper.

Egypt’s national team will be facing off with Morocco in the quarter-final round of the African Cup of Nations tonight at 9 pm, four days after we managed to defeat Ghana 1-0 on Wednesday, BBC reports (The Guardian has a play-by-play in case you missed it). We apparently haven’t been able to beat Morocco’s team since 1986, despite having won several AFCON championships.

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