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Wednesday, 4 January 2017

2016 was the worst year for portfolio flows to emerging markets since the global financial crisis

2016 was the worst year for portfolio flows to emerging markets since the global financial crisis trough of 2008, according to figures released yesterday by the Institute of International Finance (pdf). A “dismal” reading in December “cuts total net non-resident EM portfolio inflows for 2016 to just USD 28 bn — the weakest year since 2008 and 90% below the 2010-14 average,” the IIF says, noting that a “perfect storm” of factors led to the performance. No one factor stood out, it said, although it admits that “rising US yields—partly as a result of the reflationary ‘Trump trade’ but also attributable to a more hawkish Fed—have been the main contributor to the weakness.

But set aside China and the picture isn’t as grim: “At USD 185 bn, EM [ex-China] net capital inflows through November were 60% above the same period of 2015,” with Turkey (USD 37 bn), India (USD 33 bn) and Mexico (USD 30 bn) being the primary beneficiaries of flows in 11M2016. The catch: Africa and the Middle East recorded net inflows in only three months since June 2015, according to IIF data. You can check out the note yourself here in pdf.

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