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Wednesday, 30 November 2016

Solid economic indicators out of America foreshadow a stronger 2017

Sometimes, what’s good for America really is good for the world: The US economy grew faster than previously thought in the third quarter of the year, with GDP growth clicking in at annualized 3.2% against an initial reading of 2.9%, the Financial Times (paywall) reports. The figure “underscores a brightening American economy after a disappointing start to 2016,” the newspaper writes. Consumption, exports and government spending all drove growth higher than 0.8% in the first quarter and 1.4% in the second quarter, encouraging those who expect the US Federal Reserve to raise interest rates in December.

In other good economic news from across the pond, “Home prices set a record in September, bringing to a close the worst period for the housing market since the Great Depression and stoking optimism for a more sustainable expansion” as they recovered all of the ground lost during the housing bust, the Wall Street Journal (paywall) reports. Also up in America: Corporate earnings. “The Commerce Department on Tuesday reported that a key measure of business earnings—profits after tax without inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments—rose 3.5% from the second quarter, its third straight quarterly increase,” the Journal notes.

But don’t get your hopes up just yet, says Fitch, which continues to atone for its sins in the run-up to the Great Recession by playing Chicken Little at every opportunity. In a statement yesterday, the ratings agency warned that “The surge in populism and anti-establishment sentiment witnessed in the Brexit vote and Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election seem likely to push structural policies in the direction of economic nationalism, entailing a reduction in trade openness and international labour migration.” The one ray of sunshine: “Economic recovery in the largest EM countries should gain momentum in 2017 as crises in Brazil and Russia ease.”

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