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Wednesday, 5 October 2016

What we’re tracking on 05 October 2016

Devaluation before the long weekend? The Central Bank of Egypt kept the exchange rate unchanged at yesterday’s FX auction, selling USD 117.9 mn to banks at EGP 8.78 per USD 1. This was “confounding expectations of a devaluation that had helped fuel a stock market surge,” Reuters says. The newswire noted the parallel market’s FX rate dropped to the “unprecedented level” of EGP 14.20-14.25 per USD 1. Al Borsa pegs the rate lower at EGP 13.85 per USD 1. An FX trader told Al Shorouk there’s no turnover in the market, saying most are sitting on the sidelines waiting to see where the official rate will hit. The parlour game now expects devaluation to hit today.

Finance Minister Amr El Garhy left for London yesterday en route to the annual meetings of the IMF and World Bank Group, which are due to take place on 7-9 October. El Garhy will be meeting with a number of investment banks and executives from the London Stock Exchange ostensibly to draw investments to Egypt’s infrastructure projects, according to a ministry statement which ran in Al Borsa, although it is more than likely that discussions there will include the USD 3 bn eurobond issuance. El Garhy, who has proven himself an exceptionally competent steward of his ministry (between the IMF talks and the enacting of the VAT), has previously said the eurobond would likely be placed sometime this month. Also on the road: Deputy Finance Minister Ahmed Kouchouk and a number of other senior ministry officials, all of whom are set to arrive in DC on Thursday. Central Bank Governor Tarek Amer and Planning Minister Ashraf El Araby are set to join them for the final push to secure the USD 12 bn IMF facility.

El Garhy is also expected to speak at the International Institute of Finance meeting (pdf) on Thursday along with Mohamed El Erian. El Garhy is then off for another round of meetings in New York with investment banks.

International Cooperation Minister Sahar Nasr is in Washington DC this weekend for talks on securing USD 8 bn in funding pledged by the World Bank Group, (including USD 2 bn from its member the International Finance Corporation) Al Ahram reports. The minister will be meeting with the Executive Directors of the World Bank in her capacity as the Governor of Egypt to the World Bank Group.

The Emirates NBD/ Markit purchasing managers’ indices for Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the UAE will appear here this morning about 15 minutes after we dispatch. The Egyptian gauge deteriorated for 11 straight months through August.

A ban on the sale in Egypt of tickets that do not begin or end in Egypt will go into effect today. Civil Aviation Minister Sherif Fathi issued the decree last weekend.

President Abdel Fattah El Sisi will discuss the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam with Sudanese president Omar Al Bashir at Ittihadiya today. On the agenda: Trade and the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam.

The first and only vice presidential debate of the US campaign season between Democratic nominee Tim Kaine and Republican Mike Pence was ongoing around time of dispatch. PBS, as they did for the first presidential debate, had a livestream and transcript interspersed with fact-checking that can be found here. The next presidential debate will take place on Monday, 10 October.

*** Tomorrow is a national holiday in observance of Armed Forces Day. Enterprise will be off tomorrow and Friday (so no Weekend Edition). We’ll be back at the usual time on Sunday morning.

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