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Monday, 3 October 2016

BY THE NUMBERS

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Pharos Holding - http://www.pharosholding.com/

USD CBE auction (Thursday, 27 Sep): 8.78 (unchanged since 16 March 2016)
USD parallel market (Sunday, 02 Oct): 13.40-13.65 (up from 13.25 on Wednesday, 28 Sep, Al Borsa, Al Shorouk)

EGX30 (Thursday): 7,881 (-0.3%)
Turnover: EGP 477.9 mn (10% above the 90-day average)
EGX 30 year-to-date: +12.5%

THE MARKET ON THURSDAY: The EGX30 ended the week down 0.3%. Market bellwether Commercial International Bank fell 1.7%. Among the day’s worst performers were Qalaa Holdings, Edita and Amer Group. The day’s top gainers were Eastern Company, Elsewedy Electric and Egypt Kuwait Holding. Market turnover was EGP 477.9 mn with foreign investors the sole net sellers of the day.

Foreigners: Net Short | EGP -63.6 mn
Regional: Net Long | EGP +19.0 mn
Domestic: Net Long | EGP +44.6 mn

Retail: 52.7% of total trades | 57.3% of buyers | 48.0% of sellers
Institutions: 47.3% of total trades | 42.7% of buyers | 52.0% of sellers

Foreign: 33.4% of total | 26.7% of buyers | 40.0% of sellers
Regional: 8.8% of total | 10.8% of buyers | 6.8% of sellers
Domestic: 57.8% of total | 62.5% of buyers | 53.2% of sellers


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PHAROS VIEW

USD liquidity build-up on track; devaluation is imminent

Local media have reported that the Central Bank of Egypt has requested a complete list of backlog of demand for foreign currency, specifically for essential goods. This is a sign the CBE is about to meet pending USD requests, possibly in an exceptional FX auction, or through its upcoming Tuesday regular FX auction. This is clearly a sign that the build-up of USD liquidity within the banking system is on track and devaluation should follow, possibly before the International Monetary Fund Fall meetings on 7-9 October. Tap here to read the full note by Pharos Head of Research Radwa El-Swaify.

Also this morning, Pharos notes that Orascom Construction announced on Thursday that the Board of Directors has approved the purchase of 1mn shares at a price of EGP 74.05 per share through an offer only to shareholders who hold their shares on EGX. The buyback offer will commence once final regulatory approvals to proceed are obtained. Pharos notes that Orascom Construction is a beneficiary of infrastructure spending and that devaluation is a key upside. Tap here to read the full note.

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WTI: USD 47.85 (-0.81%)
Brent: USD 49.81 (-0.76%)
Natural Gas (Nymex, futures prices) USD 2.89 MMBtu, (-0.45%, Nov 2016 contract)
Gold: USD 1,318.90 / troy ounce (+0.14%)<br
TASI: 5,448.20 (-3.11%) (YTD: -21.17%)
ADX: 4,476.32 (+0.62%) (YTD: +3.93%)
DFM: 3,474.38 (+0.63%) (YTD: +10.26%)
KSE Weighted Index: 351.87 (-0.13%) (YTD: -7.82%)
QE: 10,403.38 (-0.31%) (YTD: -0.25%)
MSM: 5,674.70 (-0.90%) (YTD: +4.97%)
BB: 1,150.00 (+0.71%) (YTD: -5.42%)

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