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Sunday, 14 August 2016

Driving the agenda on Sunday, 14 August 2016

We wish we could say news of a USD 12 bn agreement with the IMF was dominating international coverage of Egypt this morning, but it’s not. No, a crybaby named Islam El Shehaby has blotted out reporters’ memories of the Egyptian beach volleyball team and weightlifting medalist Sara Samir for refusing to shake his opponent’s hand — despite having been warned in advance by his federation that he was expected to play by the rules.

Coverage of the IMF facility made headlines in the Financial Times, where Heba Saleh quotes IMF Egypt chief Chris Jarvis as noting that assistance from Egypt’s pals in the GCC remains important: “We are looking for additional finance from bilateral sources. The argument we would like to make is that if there is a moment to provide balance of payment support to Egypt, this is it.” Saleh also quotes Jarvis as saying the first tranche of USD 2.5 bn would be disbursed to Egypt immediately after the board meeting.

Where will the EGP and interest rates fall? The Wall Street Journal quotes Capital Economics’ William Jackson as saying, “In the near-term, an [agreement] with the Fund is likely to lead to a devaluation of the EGP and higher interest rates. Our current forecast is for [the EGP] to drop to 9.50 per USD by end-2016 from 8.88 per USD now, although the risk now is that it falls further.”

The New York Times’ Nour Youssef picked up on CBE Governor Tarek Amer’s admission that “It’s been a year since we have received any money” from GCC countries. The story takes a generally negative line, noting, “The announcement of the loan reinforced a general sense of foreboding among Egyptians, especially after Mr. Sisi suggested twice in recent months on state television that they may have to go hungry for their economy to stabilize. The prices of food and electricity have soared.”

Bloomberg have also followed-up on the story since we noted their original coverage on Friday morning.

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