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Tuesday, 2 August 2016

20-35% devaluation?

Meanwhile, in other IMF-related developments yesterday:

20-35% devaluation, but no float? El Sisi’s speech came as the government reportedly countered an IMF proposal to float the EGP with the suggestion of a 20% devaluation instead, Al Masry Al Youm reported in its print edition on Monday. Unnamed government sources tell Al Shorouk that a 35% devaluation before receiving the first tranche of loan is more likely. In this respect, we’ll note that the spread between the parallel and official market rates suggests a more than 40% overhang.

Add state-owned electricity companies to the list of IPO candidates: Investment Minister Dalia Khorshid stated that companies in the electricity sector are also being considered for the IPOs, AMAY reports; she had earlier confirmed that the petroleum and banking sectors would be the first up for partial privatization. Misr Fertilizers Production Company (MOPCO) and Banque du Caire are among those likely to first hit the auction block. The Petroleum Ministry is evaluating eight energy companies as potential targets, Petroleum Minister Tarek El Molla said, Shorouk reported on Monday. He added that some among them are companies already listed on the EGX and in which additional stakes could be on offer. The IMF is also reportedly asking Egypt to float up to 49% of each state-owned company to be IPO’ed on the EGX, not the 20% suggested by the government.

Fitch Ratings says securing an IMF facility would be credit positive, but that it anticipates opposition in Egypt to the loan conditions, according to a press release released Monday. While an IMF agreement could spur devaluation, speed up reform and boost sentiment, “considerable implementation risks remain,” according to Fitch. (Trenchant insight, no?) “Even if implementation proceeds on plan, Egypt faces a testing period of fiscal, monetary and structural reform.” The ratings agency, which still rates Egypt as B with a Stable outlook, adds that Egypt’s plan to raise USD 21 bn over the next three years could still fall short of its financial needs, which it estimates at closer to an annual USD 10 bn.

Grandstanding much? House Industry Committee Mohamed Badrawy called for the Parliament to pass a vote of no confidence on the Ismail cabinet for what he says was failure to bring about the change that was promised, Youm7 reports. He said cabinet has failed to get a grip on Egypt’s economic challenges, claiming conditions have deteriorated since the government’s agenda was approved. He was joined by MPs from other coalitions who have bemoaned the cabinet’s performance over the past three months. Meanwhile, Development and Reform Party head MP Mohamed Anwar Al Sadat has called upon parties to hold an urgent session to discuss the current IMF loan negotiations, stressing that a national dialogue needs to take place as all segments of society would be affected by the potential loan, Al Borsa reported on Monday. We called it last year, folks: The only thing worse that no parliament is having a parliament.

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