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Wednesday, 27 July 2016

What we’re tracking this week

Nine out of 13 economists expect the CBE will leave rates unchanged on Thursday’s meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee, according to a Reuters poll. The other four economists are leaning toward a hike of 50 to 100 basis points, mirroring the 100 basis point increase during the MPC’s meeting in June.

EFG Hermes economist Mohamed Abu Basha is among those expecting no change, but anticipates a rate hike could be in the cards later in the year. As for inflation, which last meeting’s rate hike failed to rein in, Abu Basha expects it to “ease in the coming couple of months.” Arqaam Securities economist Reham El Desoki believes the CBE will continue to raise rates given the “imminent devaluation and implementation of fiscal reforms (VAT and possibly energy price hikes),” adding that “interest rates have historically increased to higher levels to rein in dollarization and manage inflation expectations, and we believe that curbing the expected spike in short term inflation and de-dollarization are the main concerns for now for the CBE.” Beltone’s Hany Genena wrote in a note yesterday, “We do not see an alternative to an immediate full-fledged floatation so we also believe the CBE has every possible incentive to strike the market with a super rate hike (> 1%).”

The US Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Markets Committee will conclude its two-day meeting today, where it is expected to keep rates unchanged, at least until its meetings in September or later.

The Democratic National Convention is in its second day as we go to dispatch, and the event is scheduled to run until Thursday. While the first day had a rocky start, US First Lady Michelle Obama brought the house down with what some are calling the best speech of her life as she made an impassioned plea for Democrats to come together to elect former US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. (Watch, running time: 14:45). Michelle Obama’s speech may have, in fact, been too good, with many Democrats likely wondering why she wasn’t the one running. Inexplicably, Republican nominee Donald Trump praised Michelle Obama’s speech, despite that its near-entirety was a dismantling of Trump without ever mentioning his name. On the second day of the convention, former US President Bill Clinton spoke in support of his wife’s candidacy. We have to be honest and say we haven’t watched it yet; it’s really long, we have a lot going on in Egypt, and with all due respect, he’s not Michelle Obama. (Watch, running time: 49:52)

Kremlin rejects accusations its intelligence services hacked, leaked DNC emails as ‘absurd’: The Kremlin responded on Tuesday to allegations by US-based cybersecurity experts that its intelligence agencies were responsible for hacking the US Democratic Party’s emails, saying such claims were absurd, Reuters reported. “We are again seeing these maniacal attempts to exploit the Russian theme in the US election campaign… This is not good for our bilateral relations, but we understand that we simply have to get through this unpleasant period,” said Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov to reporters.

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