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Tuesday, 14 June 2016

What we’re tracking this week

The local wheat buying season will end on Wednesday as the government has already surpassed its set target of buying 4 mn tonnes. "Supplies Minister Khaled Hanafi pointed out that the door for receiving local wheat from farmers will close at the end of Wednesday due to lowering local procurement rates," Reuters quoted a Supply Ministry statement as saying.

Interest rate watch: The U.S. Federal Open Market Committee meets to discuss interest rates this coming Tuesday and Wednesday (14-15 June), with the Central Bank of Egypt’s Monetary Policy Committee due to do the same on Thursday.

Analyst consensus (so far) is for a rate hike. Of the eight analysts who have made public calls on which way they think the MPC will break, four expect rate hikes, two expect the committee to leave rates on hold and two see it as even odds.

  • Rate hike: EFG Hermes, Arqaam, Institute of International Finance, Prime
  • On hold: Beltone, Multiples
  • On the fence: CI Capital and Mubasher see there being a 50-50 chance of a 25-50 bps price bump

Further reading on the topic: Ahram Online’s poll of yesterday as well as coverage here and here.

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