AM — Sovereign fund to sell stakes in 2-3 state companies in April

Good morning, ladies and gents. First things first…

Yesterday’s EnterpriseAM was not a drill: We mistakenly sent out yesterday’s edition of EnterpriseAM from our “test” address. The issue was accurate, final and complete. Please accept our apologies for any confusion caused.

FACT CHECK- The CBE hasn’t moved forward its March policy meeting. Economist Mostafa Badra misspoke when he claimed that the central bank will meet on 18 March on Sunday night, he told Ala Mas’ouleety yesterday (watch, runtime: 6:41). The Monetary Policy Committee meeting will go ahead on Thursday, 30 March as scheduled.

WHAT’S HAPPENING TODAY-

The EFG Hermes One-on-One conference continues at the Atlantis Dubai today. The largest investor conference in frontier and emerging markets — which is running this year under the theme Outplaying Challenges — brings together more than 560 fund and portfolio managers and C-suite execs from almost 180 companies in 29 countries.

We have coverage of day one and the results of the 2023 One on One Survey in this morning’s news well, below.

Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan starts a three-day visit to the Egyptian capital that will see him meet with Sameh Shoukry and participate in an Arab League session, the Armenian Foreign Ministry spokesperson said yesterday. This comes a month after President El Sisi visited the country as part of a diplomatic tour that also took him to Azerbaijan and India.

The Higher Education Ministry will unveil a national strategy for higher education.

THIS WEEK-

The US defense secretary is in Egypt: US Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin is in the region this week for a multi-day trip that will take him to Egypt, Israel and Jordan. The Pentagon has not disclosed Austin’s itinerary. Austin began his trip in Jordan earlier this week.

Inflation figures for February will land at the end of this week. Consumer prices accelerated at their fastest pace in five years in January on the back of record food price inflation triggered by the devaluation of the EGP.

The two-day Techne Summit starts on Saturday at the National Museum of Egyptian Civilization.

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EGP WATCH-

The EGP has fallen more than 6% against the greenback in the parallel market over the past week as expectation grows that authorities will again devalue the currency. The EGP was trading at 33.50 to the USD yesterday from around 31.50 last week, Bloomberg reports, citing traders. That’s more than 8% above the official rate, which yesterday rose to 30.84 from 30.77 on Sunday.

The derivatives market isn’t a pretty picture right now: Twelve-month non-deliverable forwards are now trading at 37.60, according to the news outlet, a 22% decline from the current official rate. The one-month EGP contract has fallen around 3.5% to 32.40 since the end of last month.

Reminder: Egypt has already devalued its currency three times over the past year, causing it to lose almost half of its value against the greenback.

There’s a consensus among international banks that more declines are coming as Egypt struggles to attract big-ticket FDIs from the Gulf and foreign portfolio investors continue to sit on the sidelines. Societe Generale is expecting the currency to fall to 34.00 by the end of March and 37.00 by end-2023, while Credit Suisse analysts expect the currency to reach 35.00 and Goldman Sachs thinks we could soon see 36.00. HSBC expects the currency to range between 30.00 and 35.00 for the remainder of the current fiscal year.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

Fawry wants to make it easier for Egyptian expats to send money home: EGX-listed e-payments giant Fawry will roll out a “remittance hub” by the end of the year for Egyptians working across the MENA region to transfer funds home, CEO Ashraf Sabry told Asharq Business. The company is currently in talks with Banque du Caire and Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank to devise a mechanism for the transfers and plans to extend its remittance services to expats in two other unspecified countries in the Gulf and the Levant.

Fawry last week inked an agreement with Emirati voice-calling app Botim to allow Egyptian expats residing in the UAE to pay bills and send home remittances and is in the process of signing similar agreements with other UAE-based firms, Sabry said.

Increasing remittances was a key topic of discussion in the Senate yesterday, where Emigration Minister Soha Gendy told senators that the government would offer incentives to expats to increase transfers. These include offering higher-yielding savings certificates at state-owned banks, land for housing and agricultural projects, and lower-priced plane tickets with EgyptAir.

PSA- The Senate will reconvene on Sunday, 26 March.

THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

There are two stories driving the global conversation this morning:

• #1 Ukraine: Reuters, the New York Times and the Washington Post all have stories on the latest on the key battle for the strategically important city of Bakhmut in the country’s east.
• #2 US-China: The Wall Street Journal and Bloomberg are focusing on speeches made by Chinese president Xi Jinping and the country’s new foreign minister Qin Gang.

We are delighted to share with you that the Enterprise Exports & FDI Forum will be taking place on Monday, 15 May at the Four Seasons Hotel at Nile Plaza.

DO YOU WANT TO ATTEND? The first wave of invites is going out soon. If you’re a C-suite exec, exporter, investor, official, banker, or someone who should be part of the conversation, please TAP OR CLICK HERE to request a spot at this exclusive event.

What’s the Enterprise Exports & FDI Forum? It is the latest in our series of must-attend, invitation-only gatherings for C-suite-level business leaders. The Enterprise Exports & FDI Forum will discuss the critical topics of exports and foreign direct investment (FDI) in Egypt.

We will be taking an in-depth look into some of the most vital industry topics, including:

• How to effectively break into new export markets
• How to leverage domestic trends in order to create export opportunities
• What foreign investors are looking for
• What the government's role should be

Why now? Exports and foreign direct investment (FDI) have never been more important to our economy — or our businesses — than in the wake of the float of the EGP. We think we have a once-in-a-lifetime chance to build an export-led economy that makes us a magnet for FDI, and all the benefits that will come with it for our nation.

Think of the Enterprise Exports & FDI Forum as a hands-on lab for how to turn the devaluation of the EGP into something that will turbocharge your company and our economy.

WANT TO SHARE YOUR STORY ON STAGE? Drop a note to Patrick here and let’s talk.

WANT TO BECOME A COMMERCIAL PARTNER? Ping a note to Moustafa, our head of commercial, here.

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CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

COP WATCH- The first meeting of the loss and damage transitional committee will take place from 27-29 March, the COP27 presidency said in an emailed statement yesterday. Governments agreed to establish the committee during last year’s COP27 summit in Sharm Sheikh to “make recommendations on how to operationalize both the new funding arrangements and the fund” at COP28 in the UAE.

Check out our full calendar on the web for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events, national holidays and news triggers.

*** It’s Going Green day — your weekly briefing of all things green in Egypt: Enterprise’s green economy vertical focuses each Tuesday on the business of renewable energy and sustainable practices in Egypt, everything from solar and wind energy through to water, waste management, sustainable building practices and how you can make your business greener, whatever the sector.

In today’s issue: Thinking about buying an EV? Read our guide on the current options on the market, how much they’ll set you back — and some points to consider before you decide to make the switch.

Expect stake sales in pre-IPO fund firms in April: The Sovereign Fund of Egypt’s (SFE) pre-IPO fund is set to offer stakes in 2-3 state-owned companies to strategic investors or via public share sales in April, CNBC Arabia quotes Sovereign Fund of Egypt CEO Ayman Soliman as saying. Soliman did not disclose the names of the companies that will sell shares next month.

AND- We’re about to find out who’s buying into the state-owned hotels company: The government will “within days” make an announcement on stake sales in the seven hotels it bundled into one company ahead of a sale, Soliman said. The company will offer a 20% stake to strategic investors, followed by an offering of 5% on the bourse, Public Enterprises Minister Mahmoud Esmat said last month.

Eleven companies are headed to the pre-IPO fund in total: Soliman said that stake sales in 11 of the 32 companies in the government’s privatization program will be managed through the pre-IPO fund. The SFE reportedly added five state- and military-owned companies to its pre-IPO fund in January: Bottled drinks firm Safi, fuel retailer Wataniya, Banque du Caire, Misr Life Ins., and Egyptian Linear Alkyl Benzene (Elab). The fund, which also reportedly includes the Siemens-built, 4.8 GW combined-cycle power plant in Beni Suef, is said to be planning to offer a 20-30% stake in these companies to strategic investors.

REFRESHER- What pre-IPO fund? The fund aims to prepare state-owned enterprises for listing on the EGX by offering an alternative to public share sales while market conditions remain volatile. The state wants to raise as much as USD 6 bn through strategic stake sales via the pre-IPO fund, Planning Minister and SFE Chairman Hala El Said has said.

Are our Gulf neighbors gearing up to invest USD 4 bn? Strategic investors from the Gulf could spend USD 4 bn to buy into local firms in a first phase of stake sales, Soliman said. It’s not clear if he was referring to the first phase of stake sales under the pre-IPO fund — which Planning Minister Hala El Said said would raise USD 2.5-3 bn overall — or to the privatization program as a whole. The SFE, EGX, and government officials have made a number of trips to the Gulf in recent weeks to market the privatization program to wealth funds and other strategics in the region.

Qatar eyes more local sectors: Qatari investors are eyeing our logistics, containers, fertilizers, and export sectors, said Soliman. An Egyptian delegation to Qatar last week returned home without any hint of progress on the USD 5 bn the country has pledged to invest here, though Qatari players did express interest in our health, food, hospitality, and tech sectors. Talks with the Qatar Investment Authority (QIA) to sell a stake in Vodafone Egypt and two container terminal operators have stalled in recent weeks, reportedly on the sizes of the stakes on offer.

Strategics will strengthen banks ahead of IPOs: Stakes in state-owned banks Banque du Caire (BdC), United Bank, and Arab African International Bank (AAIB) “are better placed with a strategic partner to lay down a clear vision and a clear reading on growth and then go to market afterwards,” Soliman told Bloomberg in an interview yesterday (watch, runtime: 5:58.) “When you crowd in the right strategic partner and then you go to market, the uptake on that market, the confidence in that company is a lot stronger,” Soliman said. “We aren’t shying away from local offerings or going to market but it’s how much the market can absorb” in terms of offering size, he added.

REMEMBER- The Madbouly government in early February revealed plans to sell stakes in 32 state-owned companies over the next year under a rebooted privatization program designed to help secure much needed FX and boost the private sector’s role in the economy in line with the government’s commitment to the IMF. Prime Minister Moustafa Madbouly said that the state will offer shares in the companies to strategic investors, via offerings on the EGX or a mix of both over the next year.

Is TE the latest addition to Madbouly’s privatization list? The government is reportedly planning to sell a 10% stake in state-owned Telecom Egypt (TE), Reuters reports, citing unnamed sources it says have knowledge of the matter. The government currently holds 80% in the EGX-listed company, with the rest in freefloat, according to TE’s website. The transaction would be worth some EGP 4.6 bn at TE’s current share price. ِA TE spokesperson declined comment when approached by Youm7.

Advisors: The government tapped CI Capital and Al Ahly Pharos to manage the transaction, according to Reuters.

The TE stake is likely to go to a local investor: The 10% stake will be offered to both Egyptian and foreign investors but “appetite from foreign investors seems low,” the source told Reuters.

REMEMBER- Strategic investors — including Gulf sovereign wealth funds, who are a key target market for the government’s stake sales — tend to prefer to buy significant stakes in companies so they can play a leading role in helping them restructure and grow. In one example, talks with Qatari wealth fund QIA to buy part or all of TE’s 45% stake in Vodafone Egypt have reportedly stalled because the Madbouly government doesn’t want to cede more than 25%.

We didn’t see this coming: There’s been no mention of TE ever being part of the government’s privatization program and it was not named on Prime Minister Moustafa Madbouly’s list of 32 state-owned companies earmarked for privatization.

Plan B: The government will look to raise funds from an issuance of future flow securities if it is unable to sell shares to an investor, a source reportedly told Asharq Business. A source at the company told us in January that future flow securitization was on the table.

TE saw steady growth last year: TE’s net income grew 9% y-o-y to EGP 9.2 bn in 2022, according to the company’s earnings release (pdf) out yesterday. The firm reported EGP 44.3 bn in revenues during the year, up 19%.

Market reax: TE’s share price lost 3.7% to settle at EGP 26.76 a piece on yesterday’s close.

EFG Hermes Group CEO Karim Awad kicked off the group’s One-on-One Conference in Dubai yesterday, welcoming 179 companies as well as 561 global institutional investors and fund managers to explore key investment opportunities across frontier and emerging markets. The conference (pdf), headlined “Outplaying Challenges,” runs until 9 March.

Sovereign Fund of Egypt (SFE) CEO Ayman Soliman took to the One-on-One stage yesterday morning to talk about the fund’s approach, which sectors its eyeing, where its pre-IPO fund fits into the government’s privatization plans, and how the depreciation of the EGP impacts potential investors.

“Egypt is a two-sided economy,” Soliman told attendees. The SFE is targeting both of those sides — “the old that needs to be rethought, which includes the agriculture, tourism, and services sectors, as well as any consumer-driven sectors,” as well as fast-growing new sectors like tech, renewables, and the green economy. “Our ethos is to create avenues for capital to flow into key sectors,” he said.

Key sectors for the SFE: “For us, key growth comes from food, healthcare, logistics and supply chain management, or sectors where labor arbitrage is beneficial,” Soliman said. He also namechecked export-oriented businesses and those that have proven resilient against the currency devaluations.

The SFE’s pre-IPO fund gives state firms a chance to raise capital in challenging conditions: “Global equity markets are challenging and given the current devaluation, equities are becoming difficult to price,” Soliman said. “This unlocked an opportunity for us to bring in strategic anchor partners that add value to the companies that need capitalization that is not abundant in the local market.”

Strategics bring expertise, which brings growth: “Our process for the pre-IPO fund entails carefully selecting companies that have the right growth profile and the right management talent, but don’t have the right know-how or bandwidth to grow outside Egypt or tackle their next M&A. We bring in strategic partners who see these opportunities, and once that partnership is forged, the company goes to market at multiples of its valuation, which is [good] for investors, the partner, and the company. It’s a two-way value-creation cycle.”

And investors should feel confident about returns: “We have seen a lot of private placement investors locked into companies over the last two years, stuck with illiquid instruments due to COVID or geopolitical challenges. That is why we carefully select companies with high growth potential and good payout,” Soliman said. “So if the government doesn’t deliver, investors still get to walk away with returns.”

^^ You can read more from Soliman on the plans for the pre-IPO fund in the Privatization Watch section, above.

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KEY TAKEAWAYS from EFG Hermes Research’s 2023 One-on-One Live Poll, the only live research poll we know of in frontier emerging markets. Participants had 10 seconds to vote live on each of 10 questions. Here’s a roundup of the results:

• Fed to stay hawkish for longer: Almost three-quarters (72%) of respondents think the Federal Reserve won’t start to cut interest rates until 2024 — with 45% of all respondents expecting the cuts to come in 1H 2024.
• Oil to tread water this year: Almost three-quarters (73%) see Brent crude averaging USD 80 / bbl in 2023, while 23% think it will reach USD 100. In September last year, fewer respondents (46%) saw Brent averaging USD 80 / bbl in 2023 — and more (41%) predicted USD 100.
• EM stocks > Wall Street: MSCI’s EM stock index will outperform the S&P 500 in USD terms this year, think the majority (57%).
• AI is making waves: More than half (54%) of respondents already have a ChatGPT account. A full 12% still don’t know what that is.
• The biggest challenges for businesses? Geopolitical factors (34%), cost of debt (25%), and lack of human capital (24%).
• And the biggest factors driving chances for investment? Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 (34%) and AI (25%). Egypt’s economic reforms got 12% of votes.
• Climate change is a big concern: More than seven in 10 investors believe climate change will have an impact on their business within the next 10 years. Some 41% think the impact will be moderate and 30% expect it to be significant.
• The most concerning MENA-specific challenges: Inflation’s impact on consumer stocks (37%) and the impact of tight liquidity on bank margins (31%).
• The most attractive industries to invest in over the next five years: Healthcare (24%) and IT (19%), followed by renewable energy (18%) and food production (17%).

The New Urban Communities Authority (NUCA) is trying to sweeten the deal for foreign investors considering purchasing land in Egypt with a discount for immediate payment in hard currency, according to Al Mal. The authority will reportedly hand investors a 15% discount on the price of land if they pay the total sum up front using hard currency held abroad, the newspaper says.

Installments are also available: Investors will reportedly be able to pay for the land in installments using USDs, taking into account the average interest rate of USD certificates at state-owned banks during the time of the repayment.

No USDs, no problem: NUCA has approved a decision to allow local and foreign investors to pay their installments in EGP, taking into account the central bank’s interest rate and the USD exchange rate at the payment day, provided that the installment period doesn’t exceed three years.

The state really wants hard currency: The attempt to tempt foreigners to purchase land with foreign currencies is one of a number of ways the government is looking to bring in greenbacks and end the FX shortage. It is trying to encourage Egyptian expats to import cars and pay customs and taxes in FX via a — so far unsuccessful — scheme that launched in November, while proposed amendments to the Investment Act would hand tax breaks to companies that use FX to fund local projects.

Who’s eligible? Investors wanting to purchase state-owned land for various uses, with the exception of industrial activities and warehouses.

Background: The cabinet approved the sale of a state-owned plot in Sadat City to an unnamed Gulf investor in December, setting a precedent to approve similar cases where foreign investors agree to pay for land in FX. Walid Abbas, assistant housing minister and supervisor of planning and projects at NUCA, said the following month that NUCA had received “many requests by Arab and foreign investors” to purchase state-owned land in USD.

A business-econ heavy night on the airwaves last night, with the potential sale of a stake in Telecom Egypt, consumer prices, and investment all being subjects of discussion.

First up: TE, which could see 10% of its shares sold to private investors, according to a Reuters report yesterday (more on this in the news well, above). Lamees El Hadidi invited on Azimut’s regional head of asset management, Ahmed Abou El Saad, who speculated that the government would likely sell shares via a private placement on the EGX (watch, runtime: 13:07).

Why the negative market reaction? El Saad blamed the surprise factor for TE’s shares falling 3.7% on the news. “The fact that this news came before TE moved forward with selling its stake in Vodafone Egypt to Qatar’s wealth fund was surprising,” he said. He described the potential Vodafone stake sale as a “game changer” that would allow the company to completely overhaul its operations. El Hekaya also covered the news (watch, runtime: 13:07).

One-on-one with GAFI: El Hadidi was also joined by GAFI head Hossam Heiba to discuss the government’s efforts to attract foreign direct investment (watch, runtime: 5:24 | 2:00).

Also on the airwaves last night:

• Meds could get more expensive: Some 60-70 medicine manufacturers submitted requests to the Egyptian Drug Authority to hike prices against the backdrop of the EGP’s depreciation. (Kelma Akhira | watch, runtime: 8:23)
• The Hoggpool scam got you paranoid? A former assistant interior minister shared some tips to help people stay clear of internet scams. (Al Hayah Al Youm | watch, runtime: 12:16)
• In and out: Authorities released 30 more pretrial detainees who received pardons from the presidential pardon committee yesterday, a day after sentencing 14 people to jail on terrorism charges. (Al Hayah Al Youm | watch, runtime: 0:55) (Masaa DMC | watch, runtime: 4:15)

PSA for startups: Startups competition show El Forsa hosted by Kelma Akhira's Lamees El Hadidi is back for another season, El Hadidi said during Kelma Akhira (watch, runtime: 11:18). Some of the most prominent companies in our local startup scene are El Forsa alumni — Thndr, Swvl, and Mozare3.

Interested? Eligible startups have until 15 April to apply to be on the show. Applicants have to have businesses that are maximum three years old, have an actual product or service to offer, and are already established.

A second big archaeological discovery in less than a week is topping the foreign headlines on Egypt this morning: Following last week’s hidden tomb in the Great Pyramid, archaeologists have unearthed a “smiley, dimpled” Sphinx statue in Qena’s Temple of Dendera. The artifact is thought to depict Roman emperor Claudius. The Associated Press, AFP and WION all took note. Meanwhile, DW has a piece out on the hidden chamber.

MEANWHILE- Voice of America had coverage of our economic woes and AFP covered the mass sentencing of 14 people to jail, including lawyers and rights activists, on terrorism charges.

DEBT-

Companies no longer need a credit rating to issue bonds + sukuk: The Financial Regulatory Authority (FRA) will allow companies to sell bonds and sukuk without first acquiring a credit rating, making it less expensive for firms to raise capital for growth and development, it said in a statement.

Three caveats: The value of debt cannot exceed the value of the company’s net assets; companies must publish a disclosure detailing the nature of the issuance ahead of a sale; and only and only “qualified investors” can buy in through private placements.

M&A-

Arab Developers Holding could sell subsidiary for USD 18 mn: EGX-listed real estate firm Arab Developers Holding’s board of directors is mulling accepting a USD 18 mn bid from an undisclosed foreign company to acquire 100% of its subsidiary Amer Syria, according to a disclosure to the bourse (pdf).

REAL ESTATE-

Ora, Q Holding to build “smart city” in Abu Dhabi: Naguib Sawiris’ Ora Real Estate Development Group is partnering up with Abu Dhabi investment company Q Holding to develop a 20 mn sqm city in Abu Dhabi, according to a joint statement (pdf) yesterday. The city, described by the companies as “smart and sustainable,” will include residential areas, services, hotel establishments, and commercial spaces.

ENERGY-

EGPC kicks off first global tender to develop mature oil fields: The Egyptian General Petroleum Corporation (EGPC) launched its first international tender for the development of eight mature oil fields in the Gulf of Suez and Eastern Desert on Thursday, the Oil Ministry said in a statement. Interested parties have until 15 June to submit their bids, according to the bidding procedures (pdf) shared by EGPC.

REMEMBER- The ministry is planning to launch three international oil and gas exploration tenders this year, Minister Tarek El Molla said last month.

Turkey is getting help from Riyadh: Saudi Arabia will deposit USD 5 bn in Turkey’s central bank via the Saudi Fund for Development (SFD) to shore up its economy, the fund said in a statement yesterday. The agreement, which was floated by Saudi finance minister Mohamed Jadaan in December, was signed by SFD chairman Ahmed Al Khateeb and Turkish central bank governor Sahap Kavcioglu.

SFD? The SFD is a state-owned agency that provides aid to developing countries.

Another sign of rapprochement: The two countries have been moving in recent months to mend relations that broke down following the murder of Jamal Khashoggi in Istanbul in 2018. Erdogan and Mohamed bin Salman both traveled to each other's countries last year in a bid to normalize ties.

Lebanon turns to dollarization as currency plummets: Lebanese businesses are demanding to be paid in greenbacks to cope with the faltering LBP — which has lost more than 95% of its value since late 2019 — sparking concerns of widening economic equality between those with and without access to hard currency, the Associated Press reports.

Kuwait reappoints PM: Sheikh Ahmad Nawaf Al Sabah has been reappointed Kuwait’s prime minister by Crown Prince Meshal Al Ahmad Al Sabah, state news agency KUNA reported. The PM had resigned in January amid a standoff between Kuwait’s government and parliament that has blocked fiscal reforms, according to Reuters.