Lowest covid-19 numbers since early April

Welcome back, ladies and gents, from what we hope was a relaxing three-day weekend. As summer crawls to a close, you have about 8 days and 18 hours left until the start of September — and with it the approach of fall and the kickoff to 2021 budget season at most Egyptian companies.

We have a packed issue for you this morning, starting with the announcement of the results of the Senate election, which saw 174 new representatives being elected. The Mostaqbal Watan coalition cleaned out in the first round, winning the majority of the party list seats. A run-off on 8-9 September and presidentially-appointed members will fill out the rest of the 300-member body. This is the first class of senators to be elected to the newly reconstituted upper house of parliament. We have more in this morning’s Speed Round, below.

The rest of the news cycle was dominated by covid-19 following last Wednesday’s cabinet meeting, as well as diplomatic and national security news on GERD and Libya, which we discuss in greater detail in this morning’s Speed Round and Diplomacy + Foreign Trade sections.

The House of Representatives next-to-last legislative session before this fall’s elections may or may not wrap up tomorrow — depending on whether MPs manage to zip through everything on their docket today and tomorrow, Youm7 quotes House Secretary-General Mahmoud Fawzy as saying. Following a long-postponed summer recess, the current set of MPs could then reconvene in October for one last kick at the can before fall elections.

On this week’s agenda: The House still needs to give its final say on 13 laws, review committee reports on five other bills, and rubber stamp 12 recent presidential decrees before our elected representatives can flee to the beach. Among the most important items on the agenda:

• A bill to set up an authority to oversee and monitor waste management in Egypt and encourage investment in waste management;
• Amendments to the Microfinance Act that would introduce new capital requirements for SME lenders, and bring them within the scope of the legislation.
• A committee report on the draft Unified Tax Act, which would create a single tax platform through which to file income tax, VAT, stamp tax, and real estate tax returns;
• A law to regulate clinical research and protect human subjects (see our coverage here);
• A proposed law to restructure the Religious Endowments Authority;
• A presidential decree to approve an agreement signed with France’s Semmaris and the French Development Agency (AFD) to improve the efficiency of Egypt’s wholesale markets; and
• A presidential decree to approve a USD 500 mn extension to a World Bank facility to improve access to low-income housing.

You can expect to go to the polls to elect a new lower house of parliament sometime in October or November. Reports had previously penciled in October, but we could now see a vote sometime in October or November, it seems (watch, runtime: 0:59). Well-connected MP Mostafa Bakry suggested that prospective candidates will be able to submit their paperwork as of 20 September, with the elections likely to take place on 25 October. The elections could be split into two phases, with the first in November and the second in December, Masrawy reports, citing what it said are sources in the know. Speaker Ali Abdel Aal had previously said a sixth and final legislative cycle that will begin in October 2020 and wrap up in January 2021 is needed to bridge the gap between the end of the current session and the end of the current MPs’ five-year term.

Egypt-Greece maritime boundaries accord to be ratified in Greece this week: Greece’s parliament is planning on ratifying an accord signed with Egypt earlier this month defining maritime border zones in the East Mediterranean Sea this Wednesday, 26 August. The move to formally determine maritime zones marks a step towards international recognition of Egypt’s jurisdiction in exclusively exploring and extracting gas from the East Mediterranean region. Turkey is, needless to say, not happy.

PSA- Our next regularly scheduled holiday is Armed Forces Day, more than a month away. We’ll be observing the holiday on Thursday, 8 October (not Tuesday, 6 October, the date on which it falls) thanks to cabinet’s new policy of making Thursdays substitute for midweek holidays.

COVID-19-

The Health Ministry reported 89 new covid-19 infections yesterday. Egypt has now disclosed a total of 97,237 confirmed cases of covid-19. The ministry also reported 12 new deaths last night, bringing the country’s total death toll to 5,243. We now have a total of 65,118 confirmed cases that have fully recovered.

That’s the lowest single-day case count since 10 April, but the government continues to warn citizens to be on their best behavior lest they trigger a second wave of infections this fall. A cabinet statement notes that 320 public hospitals and 77 specialist facilities are equipped to handle covid-19 patients, while some 53 laboratories are handling testing for covid patients.

All incoming travelers (including Egyptians) will now be required to show a negative PCR test before entering Egypt starting from 1 September, according to a cabinet statement. This ratchets up protocols that came into effect last week requiring foreign tourists to provide a negative test for the virus that causes covid-19 taken within 72 hours of flying to Egypt. Children below the age of six are exempt.

As for school reopenings, the health and education ministries have drafted a plan to curb the spread of infection on school campuses. Student cases will be monitored as they are detected and logged on a digitized system overseen by both ministries that will allow for greater efficiency in detection and treatment. We have yet to see details on what this will mean for the upcoming academic year.

Friday prayers at “major” mosques will resume on 28 August with health and safety precautions stipulated by the Endowments Ministry in place, according to a cabinet statement. These measures include worshippers wearing masks and bringing their own prayer mats, and limiting sermons to 10 minutes. A ban on funerals and marriage ceremonies remains in place.

Egyptian scientists are in the third stage of clinical trials on a homegrown covid-19 vaccine and the Health Ministry is simultaneously looking to get its hands on an internationally developed vaccine as soon as possible, Health Minister Hala Zayed said last week, according to a cabinet statement. It appears one of the international sources for a vaccine will be Moscow, which is looking at potentially manufacturing its Sputnik V vaccine here in Egypt, Russia’s ambassador to Egypt Georgy Borisenko told the local press. The Russian vaccine has been questioned by medical experts for being rushed out the door after less than two months of clinical testing. Some 2k volunteers in the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Brazil, Mexico and the Philippines are now due to take the vaccine in a multinational trial.

All Saudi bureaucrats and public sector employees are going back to work next Sunday, after authorities only allowed government offices and companies to operate at 75% capacity, Saudi Human Resources and Social Development Minister Ahmad Alrajhi said.

Joe Biden has accepted the Democrats’ nomination to take on King Cheeto, calling Thursday night for Americans to join a “battle for the soul of the nation.” Biden’s well-received speed (watch, runtime: 24:48) promised, in stark contrast to his opponent to, “draw on the best of us” to “overcome this season of darkness.” You can read the transcript of his remarks in full here or catch coverage in the Washington Post and the New York Times.

The Republicans’ convention gets underway tomorrow — and they’ve hired two Apprentice producers to make it “must-see TV.” The gathering will apparently include Trump speaking — Every. Bloody. Night. More in the New York Times and Politico.

Oh, and Facebook is mulling whether to launch a kill switch for political ads in the event that The Donald loses, but refuses to accept the outcome of the poll. The NYT and Reuters have more.

US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo arrives in Israel tomorrow and will visit the UAE on Tuesday to discuss the two countries’ agreement to establish diplomatic relations, Reuters reports, citing informed sources. Pompeo is also set to bring up China and Iran and the “security challenges” they pose to the region, the sources said.

We now have 174 new senators representing some 20 governorates following the Senate elections that took place on 9-12 August, head of the National Election Authority Lasheen Ibrahim told reporters on Wednesday (watch, runtime 32:34). The confirmed senators cover all 100 seats allotted to party members in the 300-member chamber and 74 of the 100 seats available for individual candidates.

A run-off set for 8-9 September will determine the outstanding 26 individual candidate seats, and the remaining third (100 seats) will be appointed by the presidency at a later date. The complete list of elected senators is available here. This is the first time Egypt has had an upper house of parliament since the former Shura Council was dissolved in 2012.

The Mostaqbal Watan party led a 100-member pro-government National Unified List coalition that ran unopposed and secured the 100 seats reserved for party lists, after meeting the required 5% of votes to be declared the winner, according to the authority. The party fielded 59 candidates as part of the coalition. Mostaqbal Watan members also won 68 of the 74 individual seats where election results are clear. A total of 797 candidates had competed for the 100 individual seats.

Around eight mn — or 14.23% — of some 62 mn registered voters cast their ballots in the elections here at home and abroad. Ibrahim cited concerns over the covid-19 pandemic and hot weather as reasons for the muted turnout. The elections were monitored by 47 local and 14 international civil society groups, and 33 local and 162 foreign media outlets were credentialed to cover the vote, Ibrahim noted.

What the talking heads had to say: AUC Political Science professor Noha Abu Bakr told Masaa DMC that the turnout for elections to Egypt’s upper house of parliament (formerly known as the Shura Council) historically have low turnout rates. She noted that turnout was further affected by concerns over covid-19, the vacation season, and the fact that many of the candidates were “unfamiliar faces” to voters (watch, runtime 9:23). Sada El Balad’s Ahmed Moussa nonetheless claimed that this year saw the highest number of voters in an election for the upper house (watch, 2:08:23). Al Hayah Al Youm took note of the fresh round of campaigning ahead of the run-off votes (watch, runtime 2:15).

The Senate will convene in the first week of October, constitutional expert Shawky El Sayed told Sada El Balad (watch, runtime 11:01).

So what does a Senate do, anyway? The Senate, which was reconstituted last June under the 2019 Constitution, will weigh in on proposed amendments to the constitution and all laws that are supplementary to the constitution, as well as all pacts or agreements related to sovereign rights. The upper house of parliament will also be consulted on the government’s plans for economic and social development. Parliament’s bill set a 10% membership quota for women in the chamber, whose members will be reappointed or elected once every five years.

Foreign press coverage was largely focused on the turnout rates. Reuters also highlighted Mostaqbal Watan’s dominant performance, while the Associated Press said the Senate has “no real power” as it is an advisory body.

We’re seeing indications that tourism may be staging a comeback despite the ongoing pandemic and the acceleration of covid numbers across much of Western Europe.

First up, Dutch airline KLM will make a return to Cairo, with two weekly flights from 9 September to 25 October, according to a company statement last week. While the airline did not specify its plans, it noted that it will assess whether it will keep the destination for the winter season. “KLM's first priority is to offer its customers as much choice of destinations as possible. This may be followed by an increase in the number of frequencies and/or capacity by deploying larger aircraft.” This would be KLM’s first commercial passenger flight to Cairo since it suspended them in 2017 in the wake of capital controls imposed following the EGP float in November 2016.

EgyptAir reported on Friday its highest daily operation rate since 1 July, when Egypt reopened its airports to regularly scheduled flights. The national flag carrier operated 42 flights Friday carrying north of 4k passengers, Masrawy reported.

The good news on the airlines front comes as resorts are seeing more visitors, with over 100k tourists landing in Hurghada and Sharm El Sheikh between 1 July (when Egypt resumed regular commercial flights) and last week, according to a cabinet statement. Tourists visited from Belarus, Ukraine, Switzerland, Hungary, and Serbia. We noted last week that hotel occupancy rates in each of the Red Sea towns nosedived more than 50% in 1H2020. Hotels in Egypt are still operating at the government-decreed 50% capacity as a covid-19 safety measure.

Luxor and Aswan are also gearing up to reopen to tourist groups on Tuesday, 1 September, according to governorate announcements (here and here). Temples, archaeological sites, attractions, and museums will also reopen come September, cabinet’s covid-19 crisis management committee said, according to the governorate statements. Several hotels that were previously closed will also open their doors at the start of the month.

Hotels and other businesses in the tourism and aviation industries are getting a full nine-month holiday on their real estate taxes under a decision approved by the Madbouly Cabinet on Wednesday. The decision extends the six-month tax holiday President Abdel Fattah El Sisi had granted to these businesses earlier this year as part of a stimulus package that also extended income tax deadlines for other businesses. The nine-month real estate tax holiday begins in April and ends in December — meaning tourism and aviation businesses will never have to remit taxes for these months.

The CBE appears to be edging toward renewal of a six-month payment holiday for businesses most affected by covid-19. Commercial banks have finished drawing up a list of large corporate clients most affected by the pandemic at the request of the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE), Al Shorouk reports, quoting unnamed banking sources. Based on this shortlist, the CBE may renew a six-month payment holiday that is set to expire in September, the sources suggest. This is likely as long as the pandemic continues to take a toll on the local and global economies, especially on companies reliant on exports, the sources said.

Building materials companies and real estate developers are among those worst-hit by the pandemic, the sources said. Al Shorouk claims developers including Rooya and Palm Hills Development have recently got in touch with local banks to reschedule bns-worth of loan payments amid a steep slowdown in sales and a liquidity crunch. Building materials businesses, including cement and steel manufacturers, were also impacted by a recent government decision to suspend the issuance of new building licenses and are reporting a drop in profitability due to high energy costs, the sources added.

REGULATION WATCH- Gov’t looks to get its taxes up front from private sector suppliers + contractors: All government bodies will now deduct and remit a portion of VAT and schedule tax from any contracts they have with private sector vendors ahead of payment under a Tax Authority directive, according to a cabinet statement. The decision requires government bodies to deduct 20% of the VAT (which is currently at 14%) and the entirety of the “schedule tax” (a separate variable rate that applies to some goods and services) from the value of the contract before paying out the contractor, and automatically funnelling the tax money to the Tax Authority within a month. Companies remain responsible for remitting the balance.

This directive in part walks back an earlier decision that met immediate private sector backlash: The authority had decided in June to require state agencies to withhold 100% of the VAT or schedule tax on their contracts with private businesses. The private sector argued at the time that the move would squeeze their cashflows by forcing them to pay VAT on everything they buy from any subcontractors, but without giving them use of the VAT as a cushion.

INVESTMENT WATCH- Cairo 3A lands EGP 1.26 bn loan to finance expansions into poultry farms: Cairo 3A Poultry has secured a EGP 1.255 bn syndicated loan from a banking consortium led by Banque Misr to establish and operate 23 poultry farms in Giza, according to a Banque Misr statement. The consortium also includes Banque du Caire and QNB Al Ahli, the statement said, without providing details on the breakdown of the loan.

Advisors: Zaki Hashem and Partners acted as legal counsel to the banks, and Al Tamimi and Company provided legal advice to Cairo 3A.

CIB reports 100% uptick in use of digital services: Leading private sector bank CIB has seen a 100% y-o-y increase in the number of internet and mobile banking transactions in July as customers flocked to digital banking services during the pandemic, CIB’s deputy COO, Mohamed Farag, told the press. The number of CIB customers using services edged up by 20% during July, compared to last December, said Farag. Customer use of smart wallets also increased between July and December, giving CIB a 21% activity rate in smart wallets, which Farag said is the highest in the Egyptian market.

STARTUP WATCH- Cairo-based investment platform Thndr was awarded Egypt’s first new brokerage license since 2008, according to a company statement (pdf). The mobile-first equities trading platform offers three zero-commission plans, including one unpaid scheme and two plans priced at EGP 15 and EGP 55 per month. Thndr secured a pre-seed funding round last December from Y-Combinator, 4DX Ventures, Endure Capital, the Raba Partnership, and MSA Capital, Co-founder and CEO Ahmad Hammouda (Uber Egypt’s former general manager) said, without disclosing the size of investment.

Egypt’s wheat imports to fall slightly this marketing year -USDA: Egypt, the world’s leading grain buyer, is projected to import 13 mn tonnes of wheat in MY2020-2021, down slightly from a record 13.3 mn tonnes in MY2019-2020, a US Department of Agriculture report (pdf). Last marketing year’s spike in wheat imports came partially as a result of the government stockpiling strategic reserves during the covid-19 pandemic. Egypt imported 5 mn tonnes of wheat in 1H2020, down 16.6% y-o-y compared to 6 mn tonnes in the same period last year. Egypt’s wheat consumption is projected to remain largely unchanged at 20.8 mn tonnes, the USDA says. Local farmers are expected to produce 9 mn tonnes of wheat this season.

Ethiopia is planning to start the second phase of filling the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam’s (GERD) reservoir in August 2021, when the country is due for its next rainy season, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed said on Thursday, Al Arabiya reports. Ahmed’s announcement, which came as Addis Ababa celebrated the completion of the dam’s first-year filling targets, came despite ongoing negotiations with Egypt and Sudan over the dam’s filling timeline and operations. The second phase is aimed at collecting 18.4 bcm of water, up from the 4.9 bcm secured this year from rain and flooding from the Blue Nile. Ethiopia said earlier that the dam is expected to take between 5-7 years to fill, and is expected to reach full energy generation capacity by 2023, with generation geared to start as early as January or February 2021.

The entire hydroelectric project is now 78% complete and has so far cost USD 3.3 bn, overshooting initial estimates for the price tag by USD 1.1 bn, and bringing up the new projected total costs to USD 4.4 bn, GERD project manager Kifle Hora said.

Three-way discussions are trudging along: Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia’s irrigation ministers prepared on Friday a preliminary draft agreement that includes the three countries’ proposals and outlines the points of contention, according to an Irrigation Ministry statement. Friday’s meeting is the latest in the African Union-mediated talks that resumed last week after a seven-day suspension. Technical committees from Cairo, Khartoum, and Addis Ababa will continue to meet until next Friday, 28 August, at which point they will bring the remaining sticking points and a roadmap for further negotiations to AU Chair Cyril Ramaphosa.

Fresh concerns over GERD’s effect on downstream agriculture: Egyptian farmers are biting their nails about the effect GERD might have on their already dwindling water supply after years of difficult irrigation, write the Associated Press and the National.

UK researchers have "digitally unwrapped" a cat, bird, and cobra mummy from Ancient Egypt using high-resolution 3D scans, according to CNN. The scans carried out by scientists at Swansea University allowed them to see the full skeleton of the animals and look into potential causes of death. The cobra’s scan, which showed small balls in its mouth, suggests that the reptile might have been subjected to a complex ritualistic ceremony, said Carolyn Graves-Brown, curator of the Egypt Centre at Swansea University.

It’s a mixed bag of nuts for Egypt in the foreign press this morning. Turkey may have taken in anywhere between 20k and 30k Egyptian supporters of the Ikhwan, according to the National. Bloomberg breaks down the regional EastMed tensions between Egypt, Greece, and Turkey. We also got a name-check in this Washington Post story on countries that took this month’s Beirut explosion as a warning to check for dangerous chemicals held in storage.

Egypt among beneficiaries of USD 200 mn in EBRD financing to support agriculture: The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) provided Egypt and four other countries with USD 200 mn loan to strengthen agribusinesses and help local farmers adopt climate-smart agriculture practices, according to Minister Rania Al Mashat.

EBRD also provided a USD 200 mn loan to Olam International to strengthen the agribusiness value chain and trade in five countries, including Egypt, according to a press release (pdf). The funding will finance purchases of agricultural commodities such as hazelnuts, dry dairy products, grain, and onions, while allowing local subsidiaries of the company to take on the processing, storage, and distribution of these goods.

Who are Olam and what do they have to do with Egypt? Olam International is a food and agri-business based in Taiwan. They acquired Dehydro Foods Egypt in 2012, a leading producer of high quality onion dehydrates which supplies 15% of the EU’s requirements. The company’s subsidiary, Olam Spices, also has a strong customer franchise from Egypt and exports to many countries abroad.

Libyan factions call for ceasefire, El Sisi gives thumbs up: President Abdel Fattah El Sisi welcomed the Tripoli-based Government of National Accord’s (GNA) call for a ceasefire on Friday, saying on Twitter the move is “an important step on the road to achieving a political settlement.” The GNA called for talks to demilitarize Sirte, according to the New York Times. The city of Sirte has become the central battleground for Libyan forces and foreign players, possibly due to its proximity to major oil terminals, according to Reuters. El Sisi had previously said that an attack on the strategic town is a “red line” and warned of military intervention.

Subsequently, Libyan warring factions also proposed lifting a seven-month oil blockade and placing revenues in a special bank account until a political agreement is reached, according to Reuters. Libya’s National Oil Corporation welcomed the proposal and called for all “oil facilities to be freed from military occupation.”

Arab League Secretary General Ahmed Aboul Gheit renewed calls for Israel to accept a two-state solution with Palestine based on the pre-1967 borders, saying this and a halt to illegally annexing Palestinian land are prerequisites to lasting peace between Israel and Arab countries, according to state news agency MENA.

Al Azhar and the Coptic Church sent two planes carrying food and medical supplies to Beirut yesterday, according to Youm7.

Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly inaugurated the new USD 100 mn marine shipping pier extension in Al Hamra Specialized Petroleum Port in New Alamein which aims to increase the port’s shipping capacity to reach 1 mn barrels of crude oil per day, according to an Oil Ministry statement.

The Madbouly government has approved agreements to resolve disputes with Italgen and Petroceltic. The first covers a dispute between EGPC and Petroceltic International, which sought international arbitration to recover over USD 30 mn in overdue payments it claims it is owed by EGPC. The second settles the tiff between Italian renewable energy company Italgen and the Egyptian Electric Utility and Consumer Protection Regulatory Agency (Egyptera). The government agency reportedly refused to renew Italgen’s license to generate and sell electricity, claiming that the company failed to build a wind energy facility it had planned to construct. No details on either settlement agreement were provided.

The National Telecommunications Regulatory Authority (NTRA) has declared as baseless a social media report alleging that as many as 12 mn Vodafone Egypt users’ had been leaked, Al Mal reports, citing an unnamed NTRA source. The ruling comes after IT specialist Mohamed Abdel Basit alleged he was approached by an anonymous Facebook user attempting to sell the data for USD 500, prompting the NTRA to investigate Vodafone Egypt and the alleged incident, the Independent Arabia reports. Vodafone has reportedly filed a libel and defamation lawsuit against Abdel Basit, whose post has since been deleted.

At least five banks — the National Bank of Egypt, Banque Misr, Suez Canal Bank, the Housing and Development Bank, and EG Bank — are participating in a USD 360 mn loan the UAE’s Mashreq Bank is arranging for Evergrow Speciality Fertilizers, reports Al Shorouk. Evergrow will use the loan to restructure its debt and complete the third phase of its fertilizer plant in Sadat City. The Arab African International Bank, Banque du Caire, Al Ahli Bank of Kuwait, and HSBC are also mulling participating in the loan, according to the newspaper.

Amer Group is closing in on an agreement for a EGP 1 bn loan from an unnamed local bank to finance construction works at projects in Ain Sokhna, Alexandria, and Port Said, Al Shorouk reports, citing sources with knowledge of the matter. Part of the loan will be directed towards its Greek-style residential and touristic development in Ain Sokhna, Santorini.

Grand Mufti Shawky Allam has ruled that raising dogs as domestic pets does not “nullify” prayers, saying that the school of Islam most widely followed in Egypt views dogs as pure (watch, runtime: 08:32).