Monday, 10 October 2016

Addressing the elephant in the room: Subsidy cuts are suddenly on the government’s agenda

TL;DR

What We’re Tracking Today

Finance Minister Amr El Garhy is expected to be marketing the USD 3 bn eurobond issuance, the IPO of state-owned businesses and FDI in general while in New York today. On the minister’s agenda: Meetings with Wall Street firms. El Garhy is heading to New York after the annual meetings of the IMF and World Bank, where finance ministers of the EU and G7 reportedly said in meetings with El Garhy on the final day of the gathering that they would back Egypt’s request for a USD 12 bn extended fund facility. Al Shorouk has the official ministry statement on the weekend’s events.

Also, coming out of the meetings, European Bank for Reconstruction and Development boss Sir Suma Chakrabarti reaffirmed the bank’s pledge to provide EUR 500 mn in funding for renewable energy projects in Egypt, Al Mal reported. EBRD executives are expected in Egypt on 24 October to follow up on the “Egypt strategy for sustainable development” that will be launched by 2017, said International Cooperation Minister Sahar Nasr.

Meanwhile, El-Garhy will appear on Tuesday at the ABANA Conference 2016 in New York, joining a cast of characters that also includes Egyptian American Enterprise Fund chief Jim Harmon. The conference follows the 2016 ABANA Achievement Award Dinner honoring BlackRock chief Laurence Fink, which gets underway tonight at 6pm Eastern time at the Pierre Hotel

The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel will be announced today. Thomson Reuters’ data suggests the winners could be Olivier Blanchard, Edward Lazear, and Marc Melitz and there’s also some speculation that Paul Romer, whose NYU Stern Business School accidentally issued a press release calling him the award’s winner and inviting reporters to a news conference, is in the running. The official announcement will be available here at 11:45 CET.

President Abdelfattah El Sisi will arrive in Khartoum today to attend the Sudanese National Dialogue Conference, Al Borsa reports. The move follows Egypt’s signing of 17 cooperation agreements last week with Sudanese president Omar Al Bashir.

What We’re Tracking This Week

The board of the National Telecommunications Regulatory Authority (NTRA) is due to decide the fate of the 4G spectrum rejected by the three incumbent mobile network operators on Wednesday (12 October). The regulator formed a committee on Sunday to recommend the next course of action, which according to Al Borsa, appears to come down to licensing them off to Telecom Egypt or putting it up at an international auction at which domestic and global players could bid. Unnamed NTRA officials claim MNOs have not expressed interest in re-opening talks.

NI Capital will complete its evaluation of companies slated for an IPO sometime this week, government sources tell Al Shorouk.

Egypt, Greece and Cyprus will hold a tripartite summit in Cairo on 11-12 October. Greek PM Alexis Tsipras and Cypriot President Nicos Anastasiades will join President Abdel Fattah El Sisi for the talks, Al Ahram reports. Just don’t expect a breakthrough natural gas agreement to be announced, warns New Europe: The barrier is low prices, not a lack of political will, the publication says, citing the noted industry analyst Charles Ellinas.

Fall conference season continues: The Second Annual Leasing Conference will run at the Four Seasons Nile Plaza Hotel on Tuesday. Also on Tuesday: The two-day Global Islamic Economy Summit gets underway in Dubai. Wednesday will see the awkwardly name “Factoring Role in promoting SMEs” take place in Cairo.

On The Horizon

FiT phase two reply deadline extended: The Electricity Ministry has extended to 21 October its deadline to receive replies from companies qualified to participate in phase two of the feed-in tariff program, Al Borsa reported. Companies originally had until 7 October to decide whether or not they were moving forward under the new terms.

More 4G blowback in the pipeline? Telecom Egypt has until Monday 31 October to reach an agreement with MNOs over using their 2G and 3G network infrastructure

Speed Round

Speed Round is presented in association with

THE GOV’T IS ACTIVELY CONSIDERING SUBSIDY CUTS after IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde’s statement on Saturday that Egypt will need to cut subsidies and devalue before the IMF executive board approves a USD 12 bn extended fund facility. All options are on the table so far as fuel subsidies are concerned, Oil Minister Tarek El Molla said yesterday. This includes raising the prices of petrol this fiscal year, he told Al Borsa. El Molla said the government’s petroleum subsidy bill has already exceeded the sum allocated in the budget for 1Q2016-17 on the back of oil breaking the USD 40 per barrel mark. The budget’s subsidy allocation stands at EGP 35 bn.

Your electricity bill could also become more expensive, with the Electricity Ministry looking at how it could scrap the EGP 9 bn it has earmarked in the FY2018-19 budget to deliver subsidized power, unnamed sources tell the newspaper. As we noted back in April, the ministry plans to phase-out electricity subsidies by 2019, but would continue make allowance for some EGP 9 bn to support low-income households. Instead, the ministry is considering raising the price of power on top-tier consumers to make up for that amount. So if you think you have it bad now, come see us in four years.

LAGARDE’S COMMENTS OVER THE WEEKEND HELPED KEEP THE EGP at its all-time low on Sunday, with greenbacks trading in the 14.00-14.25 range on the parallel market, Al Mal reports. That’s on par where it stood on Wednesday heading into the holiday weekend. Traders speaking to the newspaper claim that several FX bureaus are withholding USD in anticipation of future gains should the parallel market rate reach an expected EGP 16 per USD 1. Equally anecdotally, we’ve found a handful of traders Saturday and Yesterday who are willing to buy at just under EGP 14.00, but none who were willing to sell at EGP 14-14.25.

Worth watching: How the EGP can avoid the fate of the Nigerian naira. Overnight last night, Bloomberg posted Emirates NBD economist Jean-Paul Pigat’s interview with Bloomberg’s Yousef Gamal El-Din on devaluation and where the economy goes from here. Gamal El-Din asks whether the Nigerian naira’s woes post-devaluation suggests Tarek Amer could be getting signals to pull back, with Pigat saying, “I think at this time it’s inevitable to devalue — it’s going to be part of that IMF agreement. … They’re going to need to loosen controls. A devaluation is not going to be a silver bullet to solve all of Egypt’s economic problems. You can’t devalue your way to prosperity. With the naira, part of the problem was that the central bank didn’t devalue it to the point where it was currently trading. That’s actually my fear with Egypt — the black market rate is at about 14 to the USD. If we see a smaller devaluation … to 11, that’s a concern. That will not necessarily give foreign investors confidence to go back into Egypt.” (Watch, run time: 5:02)

One-month forwards on the EGP have plunged, pointing to “a potentially massive devaluation,” a Wall Street Journal newsletter on this week’s global macro outlook notes. The graph (below) suggests the EGP should be at about 10.80 to the greenback a month from now.

THERE’S NO NEED TO RUSH Egypt’s eurobond issuance, says IMF’s Egypt country head Chris Jarvis, according to Al Borsa. The bonds can be issued at any time, he said. Jarvis also said the full implementation of the capital gains tax is an important part of the reform program: It’s not a significant factor on the revenue side of the ledger, but ensures the wealthy share more of the financing burden. Al Shorouk notes that Jarvis said Egypt doesn’t have to receive financing in order for the IMF to begin activating its loan program, just pledges from financiers would suffice.

TWO BIDDERS FOR UNITED BANK OF EGYPT? Standard Chartered Bank and Kuwait Finance House are reportedly interested in acquiring the United Bank of Egypt (UBE), Al Borsa reported. The Central Bank of Egypt, which owns UBE, is said to have begun talks with both banks, but neither have submitted formal offers yet. There’s no word on whether Kuwait Finance House is still interested; the bank was said to be kicking the tires at UBE back in August. UBE Chairman Ashraf El Kady said this summer that the bank would sold-off to a strategic investor in 2017.

PALM HILLS DEVELOPMENTS announced it began “regulatory and technical procedures related to” issuing up to EGP 1 bn in securitised bonds. PHD says the issuance is part of its plans to deleverage its balance sheet through monetising receivables of up to EGP 2.5 bn over two to three years, according to the release. PHD “is currently processing necessary procedures including obtaining all required regulatory approvals and the Bonds’ Credit Rating.” The bonds will have a maturity of five years “and will mainly target money market funds, local banks and insurance companies. The transaction proceeds will be mainly utilized in refinancing existing debt, in the form of non-recourse off Balance Sheet financing.” PHD expects the first transaction, which will include some EGP 350-450 mn in receivables, to close in 4Q2016, with the balance to be issued during the course of FY 2017-18. Sarwa Capital is managing the issuance.

VAT ON BANKS’ NON-BANK SERVICES STILL UNCLEAR: It’s still not clear which non-core services offered by banks will be subject to the value-added tax (VAT), a senior Finance Ministry official said yesterday. The ministry is reportedly meeting with the Federation of Egyptian Banks to discuss what services could be declared “non-bank” services, possibly including safety deposit boxes and services including trustee services, money management, real estate marketing and corporate establishment services, the Ministry’s Mahmoud Khalifa said.

Missed yesterday’s registration deadline? There will be no extensions, Khalifa is quoted as saying. Trading without registering for VAT will be considered tax evasion, he says.

Deadlines are flexible for the Finance Ministry, though: Khalifa says the executive regulations governing the VAT, which were due yesterday, will be ready “sometime this month” as they’re still being finalized. Khalifa noted that the ministry is favoring a proposal to charge the Tax Authority a penalty for delaying rebate payments. The law requires the authority to pay these within 45 days.

And while we’re on the VAT, the Egyptian Tourism Federation has not given up the fight to get the industry exempted (at least temporarily) from the VAT, said the organization’s head Karim Mohsen. He tells Amwal Al Ghad the ETA is pushing for a meeting with Finance Minister Amr El Garhy to plead their case.

CAC BECOMES PLAYTOY FOR LOCAL PRESS: Cairo American College became the play toy of the domestic press yesterday after a group identifying itself as the “Tiba Center for Political Studies” made the front page of tabloid Youm7’s print edition yesterday with its claims that CAC’s curriculum is pro-Israeli, teaches that Egypt lost the Sixth of October War, and fails to deliver courses in religion and Egyptian history. The piece touched-off a back-and-forth between the Education and Foreign Ministries over who, exactly, has responsibility for remonstrating with school administrators over the error of their ways. The flap eventually made its way to the front page of the national daily Al Masry Al Youm.

(Between us, the founders of Enterprise have had kids in every grade level offered by CAC. The Masono-Zionist Conspiracy has apparently brainwashed the children into hiding the dark side of CAC’s curriculum from us: We don’t recall Six of October being in the curriculum, and last we checked, Egyptian Culture was one of the kids’ “second-favourite” subject after theatre.)

The domestic press is also infuriated that CAC — like other private schools not falling under the Education Ministry — continued to charge tuition in foreign currency this year and has reproduced the school’s tuition schedule in full. Notably, two for-profit international schools were placed under the “supervision” of the Education Ministry this past March, ostensibly because they collected tuition in FCY. (See the first story in “What We’re Tracking Today” here for background.)

IT’S BEEN A TOUGH WEEK FOR EGYPT on the diplomatic front — and it’s only Monday. Ethiopia declared a six-month state of emergency on Sunday, blocking internet access to most of the country following a week of unrest and violence in the Oromiya region leading to the torching of a number of foreign-owned companies and factories, according to the Associated Press. Over 55 people were killed on Sunday alone during a stampede following police firing tear gas into a crowd of protesters in Oromiya, Reuters reported. American scientist Sharon Gray who was visiting the country for a research project was killed last Tuesday while driving past a demonstration when her vehicle was hit by rock-wielding protesters

Where does Egypt fit in all of this? Turkey’s state-owned news agency Anadolu Agency published a video on Wednesday which purports to show Egyptians sharing a stage with the outlawed Oromo Liberation Front, a video which has since been aired by Ethiopia state broadcaster. Egypt’s foreign ministry strongly denied the Anadolu report on Wednesday, saying that, “Egypt firmly respects the principle of non-interference in the internal affairs of other countries… The Foreign Ministry Spokesman denounced attempts by some malicious parties to discord relations between both countries.”

Ethiopia summoned the Egyptian ambassador in Addis Ababa on Wednesday, ostensibly over “inaccurate” reports appearing in the domestic press here regarding the Ethiopia Renaissance Dam, according to state run Ethiopian News Agency. The Ethiopian report makes no mention of the video, although as stated, the state broadcaster has reportedly aired it.

The two anti-government groups who are at the center of the protests hail from the country’s two largest ethnic groups, the Oromo and Amhara, complain of political exclusion by the country’s ruling Tigrean elite, who are a minority in the country at 6.1% of the population.

Meanwhile, there’s daylight between Saudi Arabia and Egypt on Syria. The Saudi envoy to the United Nations, Abdullah al Muallami, “dubbed Egypt’s stance kowtowing to Russia on a UN resolution about Syria, and called it as [sic] ‘painful,’” according to Saudi mouthpiece Al Arabiya on Sunday. “Stances by Senegal and Malaysia were much closer to the agreed Arab decision,” said Muallami, calling it a “dark day for the Syrian people.” Egypt voted on two competing Security Council resolutions, one footed by the French and the other by the Russians, while characterizing the move as not being contradictory. The Russian resolution would not have clearly prohibited airstrikes.

Finally: An Egyptian was arrested in Kuwait for a failed terror attack targeting five American nationals, according to state news agency KUNA citing Kuwait’s interior ministry, Ahram Online reports. The detained individual had rammed his vehicle into theirs. None of the intended victims were injured, and the Egyptian foreign ministry did not have a comment at the time of the story’s publication.

The second US presidential debate just concluded a little over an hour ago in St. Louis. While the debate covered a wide variety of issues, mainly led by audience questions but often hijacked by tangents, six key issues came up: the future of Muslims in America; tax policy (as well as Trump’s business and personal tax history); Syria; the US Supreme Court; and energy policy.

Immediately before the debate, Republican nominee Donald Trump held a press conference with three women — Paula Jones, Juanita Broaddrick and Kathleen Willey — who have in the past accused former US President Bill Clinton of [redacted] assault, all of whom repeated Trump’s campaign slogan of ‘making America great again.’ Also at the conference was Kathy Shelton, who was assaulted by a man who Sec. Clinton defended in her capacity as a lawyer early on in her career. Trump then invited the women to attend the debate itself. Broaddrick and Willey were escorted to their audience seats by former New York City Mayor and Trump advisor Rudy Giuliani, where they joined Shelton. The move was likely to deflect from the disclosure on Saturday of a 2005 video where Trump is heard bragging about making physical advances on women and being able to get away with it because of his celebrity, which gave Alec Baldwin the opportunity to reprise his Trump impersonation on Saturday Night Live on the very same day (9:38).

However, the latest Trump scandal has barely dented his popularity among Republican voters, according to a poll by Politico, which shows that 74% of Republican voters believe the party should stand by Trump, despite some defections by prominent members of the party in recent days.

One of the more startling moments from the debate was when Trump dragged the US electoral process down to the level of a third world country by threatening his opponent with prison with regard to Sec. Clinton’s deleted emails from her private server while serving as US Secretary of State.

Trump: “If I win, I am going to instruct my attorney general to get a special prosecutor to look into your situation.” (1:01)

Trump: “Because you’d be in jail.” (16 seconds)

However, NPR’s Sarah McCammon rightly notes that this is not actually the first time that such a threat has been made: “‘Lock her up’ became a common chant aimed at Clinton from Trump’s supporters at his rallies… Over time, he began to actively encourage the chant, even joining in on at least one occasion.”

Trump generated the biggest laugh line of the night from the debate audience, but it didn’t appear it was intentional.

Sec. Clinton: “He wants to start, he can start. No, go ahead Donald.”
Trump: “No, I’m a gentleman, Hillary.” [audience erupts into laughter]

So who won? Hard to say, unlike the first debate. Sec. Clinton appeared not as confident as she was in the first debate when discussing her email server and appeared very much on the defensive. She was able to speak with much more confidence about her own record of public service, as well as what kind of country America wants to be in terms of culture. Sec. Clinton cited “The Trump Effect” noted by American schoolteachers across the country, who say bullying is on the rise, as well as school-age immigrants and especially school-age Muslim children who express fear and anxieties over Trump’s presidency and the behavior of others inspired by Trump. Sec. Clinton was clearly the winner with regard to her answer on energy policy, accurately speaking on America’s rise to energy independence as well as the reasons for the drop in global oil prices in an adult, respectful manner that one does not usually hear from politicians, all within the difficult constraints of a two-minute time limit.

For a full transcript of the debate, along with fact-checking, please see NPR’s coverage and or watch the entire debate here via NBC (run time: c. 90 minues).

“NOT MOTHER THERESA STUFF”: ABRAAJ GETS BIG INK in the New York Times. The NYT’s Dealbook section has an epic — and very human — feature about Abraaj’s healthcare push in East Africa that gets quite a lot right, from the investment drivers to the challenges on the ground and the sweeping ambition of the project. Read: “An Investor’s Plan to Transplant Private Health Care in Africa.”

** SHARE ENTERPRISE WITH A FRIEND **

Enterprise is available without charge — just visit our English or Arabic subscription page, depending on which edition you would like to receive. We give you just about everything you need to know about Egypt, in your inbox Sunday through Thursday before 7am CLT (8am for Arabic), and all we ask for is your name, email address and where you hang your hat during business hours.

Egypt in the News

It’s a quiet morning for Egypt in the international press, with coverage focused primarily on three primary topics: Christine Lagarde’s weekend comments on Egypt needing to devalue and cut subsidies prior to IMF approval of a USD 12 bn standby facility. Egypt’s overnight win over Congo in its first game in the national team’s campaign for a berth in the 2018 World Cup qualifiers and wire coverage of the spat between Egypt and “Garden City” (as yesterday’s front-page story in AMAY would have it) after Western embassies issued security warnings over the holiday long weekend.

Elsewhere this morning:

  • Remember that tired myth about how social media catalyzed whatever it was that 25 January 2015 was? If you’re as tired of it as we are, you will want to give a wide berth to the Washington Post Monkey Cage blog’s “How social media undermined Egypt’s democratic transition.” If, on the other hand, your blood pressure is a little low this morning, tap / click away.
  • Egypt is getting a new capital — courtesy of China,” declares CNN, retreading familiar ground for anyone with even a passing interest in criticism of the nation’s urban development policies.
  • A Morsi aide and Canadian permanent resident imprisoned in Egypt after the 30 June revolution who became a minor cause celebre in Toronto “speaks on his nightmare spent in a notorious Egyptian prison” in an interview with the Toronto Star.
  • Also out there today: A smattering of limpid op-eds, such as this one carried by Al-Jazeera suggesting that Egypt is being to “opaque” on devaluation and warning of social and political consequences of the move.

On Deadline

Al Masry Al Youm Chairman Abdel Moneim Said says Egypt is like a child who won’t take her medicine because it tastes bad. The recipe for reform is not merely a step mandated by the IMF, he says, it is a series of steps derived from experiences from a number of economies that went through similar hardships.

Diplomacy + Foreign Trade

Decree allows Bahrain’s king to own property in Sinai: President Abdel Fattah El Sisi issued a decree allowing Bahrain’s King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa to be treated as if he were Egyptian in terms of property rights. The decree allows Al Khalifa to own land and property in the Sinai Peninsula, Al Masry Al Youm reported.

Education agreement with Japan: The Education and Technical Training Ministry has signed a cooperation protocol with the Japanese International Cooperation Agency (JICA) to develop a technical training program, Al Masry Al Youm reported. The agreement includes building three dual-learning schools in Port Said as well as a technical high school in Menoufiya.

Energy

Shell to reduce investments in Burullus and Rosetta concessions

Shell has reduced its operating expenditure investments in the Burullus and Rosetta concessions in FY2016-17 to USD 158.9 mn, a source told Daily News Egypt. The source did not say how much Shell invested in the concessions, but noted that the rate of production from both is falling by 10 mcf/d. The source also noted that the Egyptian government owes Shell USD 1.3 bn and that the accumulation of receivables is the reason behind it postponing growth plans.

Infrastructure

Vinci begins drilling third phase of Cairo Metro Line 3

France’s Vinci Construction will begin drilling work for the third phase of the Cairo Metro Line 3 project at the beginning of November, sources told Al Borsa. The National Authority for Tunnels is negotiating to complete the project by 2022, the source added. The 17km project is being financed by a EUR 900 mn loan from the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development and the French Development Agency.

Basic Materials + Commodities

Strategic reserves of sugar to last until February, says Supply Minister

Egypt’s strategic sugar reserves are sufficient to last until February 2017, Supply Minister Mohamed Ali El Sheikh said, according to an Al Masry Al Youm report. The government had reportedly signed contracts to import 420k tonnes of sugar this month, El Sheikh added. We had noted yesterday that traders complained of a shortage that has seen sugar prices increase to EGP 9.50 per kilogram. The government also said it had planned to purchase around 650k tonnes this week, despite GASC cancelling two tenders on Saturday and Sunday to import a total of 200k tonnes last Saturday due to a lack of interest from traders.

Unilever Mashreq to build EGP 600 mn food plant in mid-2017

Unilever Mashreq is investing EGP 600 mn to build a food production plant in Alexandria to be launched mid-2017, Managing Director Ashraf Bakry told Amwal Al Ghad. The plant will primarily target export markets. Unilever is also participating in the initiative launched by Federation of Egyptian Industries and the government encouraging price discounts, and will cut prices of all its products by 20-50% during the coming two months.

Eastern Company to submit study on growing tobacco locally to parliament

Is it October? Yes? Then it’s time to either revive Nasr Automotive Co. or for Eastern Company to talk once again about the feasibility of cultivating tobacco domestically. Our sarcasm comes after Eastern’s chairman said the company is ready to send the House of Representatives a feasibility study on the domestic growth of tobacco, the Daily News Egypt reported. There more detail in the report on the latest incarnation of Eastern’s pipe dream, should you be interested.

Real Estate + Housing

Samcrete studying the construction of residential project in East Cairo

Real estate developer Samcrete is studying the construction of a residential project in East Cairo, Managing Director Hisham El Kheshen said, Al Shorouk reported. The firm is also currently in negotiations to buy 100-feddan land plots in the North Coast and Ain Sokhna as part of its expansion plans in the Egyptian market.

NUCA allocates 115 feddans in New Cairo to Saudi developer

The New Urban Communities Authority has agreed to allocate 115 feddans in New Cairo to a Saudi-based developer priced at EGP 3.2 bn, Al Borsa reported. The company has agreed to pay for the land in USD in one installment within a month of signing the contract, sources said. The company is aiming to complete the residential project within seven years.

Tourism

Tourism inflows down 45% y-o-y in August – CAPMAS

Tourists visiting Egypt declined by 45% year-on-year in August to 503k visitors, down from 915.2k in August 2015, according to Al Masry Al Youm citing a CAPMAS report. Visitors from Russia fell 55.2% y-o-y. Numbers of UK tourists dropped 15.9%, 14.0% fewer Germans came for a visit, and traffic from Italy was down 6.2%.

Automotive + Transportation

GB Auto denies it submitted an offer for Skoda distribution rights

GB Auto has denied that it had submitted an offer to obtain the distribution rights of Skoda in Egypt, Al Mal reported. The denial follows a statement by Karim Naggar, CEO of Volkswagen’s licensed distributor Egyptian Automotive and Trading Company, that Volkswagen International, which owns the Skoda brand, had received individual and joint offers for Skoda from GB Auto Chairman Raouf Ghabbour, as well as CEO of Aboul Fotouh Auto, Hassan Aboul Fotouh. ARTOC Auto, the official Skoda distributor in Egypt, has been reportedly facing problems with Volkswagen as sales dropped. Following ARTOC’s refusal to find a distributing partner for the brand, Volkswagen has reportedly threatened to withdraw distribution rights if the issue is not resolved.

Transportation Ministry to tender phase one of Cairo Metro Line 4 this week

The Transport Ministry will launch the tender for developing phase one of the Cairo Metro Line 4 to Japanese-Egyptian consortiums this week, said Transport Minister Galal Saeed. The ministry will select the winning bid in two to three months, with construction on the six-year project expected to begin by next April at the latest, Al Mal reports.

Banking + Finance

Multiples Group looking to expand into health sector

Investment company Multiples Group are looking to expand investment in healthcare and retail sectors, CEO Omar El Shenety told Al Mal. The company is interested in acquiring existing healthcare providers that have been in the market for up to five years, in addition to partnering with industry professionals, he added. Multiples is currently the advisor on a project to construct specialized hospital in Sixth of October as well as an international school, both at an investment value of close to EGP 100 mn, said El Shenety. He also added that the group will consider listing in Dubai in the next three to four years.

Green for Growth Fund loans Alexbank USD 20 mn

The Green for Growth Fund’s (GGF) is providing Alexbank with a USD 20 mn senior loan to finance green projects, according to announcement by the fund in late September that was only recently picked up by local media. The would be the fund’s first regional agreement. The GGF is a public-private partnership fund initiated by the European Investment Bank and KfW Development Bank.

EDBE approves capital increase

The Export Development Bank of Egypt (EDBE)’s board of directors has approved in principle increasing its issued and paid-in capital by EGP 288 mn, according to a bourse statement. EDBE says it will finance the capital increase through its retained earnings and currently awaits the central bank’s approval for the move.

Other Business News of Note

EGX releases first draft of ESG guide

The EGX released the first draft of its guide for how listed companies will be measured on their commitment to sustainability under the environmental, social, and governance (S&P/EGX ESG) index, according to an EGX statement. The guideline and index, are part of the EGX’s membership in the UN’s Sustainable Stock Exchanges Initiative.

Egypt Politics + Economics

Amid MP’s death, Egypt celebrates 150 years of parliament

In an atmosphere of tragedy, the House of Representatives pressed forth with its celebration ceremony to mark the 150th anniversary of the election of the first parliament in Egypt, Ahram Online reported. Egyptian MP Amira Ibrahim, a representative of Menoufiya’s Shebin Al Koum district, was killed in a car crash on Sunday on her way to attend celebrations, the newspaper reported. The ceremony was attended by President Abdel Fattah El Sisi who met with a US congressional delegation to discuss cooperation on terrorism, in addition to a UK parliamentary delegation headed by Sir Gerald Howarth, who promised to push the issue of restoring flights between the UK and Sharm El Sheikh with Prime Minister Theresa May, Al Shorouk reports.

Sports

Egypt beats Congo 2-1 in the World Cup qualifiers

Egypt secured a 2-1 win over Congo yesterday at the 2018 FIFA World Cup Russia qualifiers, leading Egypt to win an early lead of Group E, Al Borsa reports. An auspicious start to what we hope will finally see Egypt make it to the World Cup.

On Your Way Out

Careem has an edge over Uber as a result of its “localness” and flexibility with governments, Wamda’s Rachel Williamson writes. The Dubai-based ride hailing firm had recently signed agreements to be the sole app provider for Dubai’s Road Transport Authority’s (RTA) taxis, as well as Egypt’s white taxis.

Al Azhar, that paragon of tolerance, and the Endowments Ministry are prohibiting Shia rituals from taking place in the Al Hussein, Sayyeda Nafissa, and Sayyeda Zeinab mosques as the eve of Ashura, which falls on October 11, approaches, a ministry source told Al Masry Al Youm. “We will not allow any sectarian practices, be it on the occasion of Ashura or otherwise,” Endowments Minister Mohamed Mokhtar Gomaa said. Al Hussein mosque, situated in the vicinity of the Khan El Khalili bazaar, will be closed down today through Wednesday. The Endowments and Interior ministries are reportedly collaborating to prevent potential clashes between Sunnis and Shia in the area. Shia are routinely prohibited from holding gatherings or other ritualistic activities in Egypt.

The markets yesterday

Share This Section

Powered by
Pharos Holding - http://www.pharosholding.com/

USD CBE auction (Tuesday, 04 Oct): 8.78 (unchanged since 16 March 2016)
USD parallel market (Sunday, 09 Oct): 14.00-14.25 (from 13.85 on Saturday, 08 Oct, source, Al Mal)

EGX30 (Sunday): 8,436.8 (+0.8%)
Turnover: EGP 500.7 mn (15% above the 90-day average)
EGX 30 year-to-date: +20.4%

THE MARKET ON SUNDAY: The benchmark EGX30 ended the day up 0.8%, with the top performing constituents being Elsaeed Contracting, Elsewedy Electric and CIB. The day’s worst performers were Qalaa Holdings, Domty and Amer Group. Market turnover was EGP 500.7 mn with domestic investors the sole net sellers.

Foreigners: Net Long | EGP +19.6 mn
Regional: Net Long | EGP +6.4 mn
Domestic: Net Short | EGP -26.0 mn

Retail: 65.0% of total trades | 64.5% of buyers | 65.4% of sellers
Institutions: 35.0% of total trades | 35.5% of buyers | 34.6% of sellers

Foreign: 16.1% of total | 18.0% of buyers | 14.1% of sellers
Regional: 6.3% of total | 7.0% of buyers | 5.7% of sellers
Domestic: 77.6% of total | 75.0% of buyers | 80.2% of sellers


***
PHAROS VIEW

October deadline confirmed | Buckle up for imminent fiscal and monetary reforms

IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde’s comments during a press briefing on Saturday that Egypt must adjust its FX rate and implement subsidy cuts before the IMF Board can meet to approve the USD 12 bn lending facility, which can happen in early November, means we are looking at both devaluation and subsidy cuts coming into effect during the month of October.

We expected the devaluation to happen sometime in October, after the transfer of the USD 5-6 bn in pre-requisite financing packages, which would support the necessary NIR build-up to USD 25 bn previously noted by the CBE Governor. We project a theoretical fair value of the EGP versus the USD at EGP 11.75, using interest rate parity, and consequently view the official exchange rate would move to EGP 11.50-11.99/USD.

Both measures threaten the cost structure for the industrial sector and exacerbate inflation which will eventually hit private consumption, a key growth driver for the Egyptian economy. The toughest part of reform implementation will be securing public acceptance of the imminent reform agenda.

Tap here to read the note in full (pdf).

***


WTI: USD 49.37 (-0.88%)
Brent: USD 51.34 (-1.14%)
Natural Gas (Nymex, futures prices) USD 3.17 MMBtu, (-0.88%, Nov 2016 contract)
Gold: USD 1,261.90 / troy ounce (+0.80%)<br
TASI: 5,506.8 (-2.2%) (YTD: -20.3%)
ADX: 4,362.2(-0.6%) (YTD: +1.3%)
DFM: 3,348.1 (-0.2%) (YTD: +6.3%)
KSE Weighted Index: 347.3 (-0.3%) (YTD: -9.0%)
QE: 10,355.5 (0.0%) (YTD: -0.7%)
MSM: 5,692.4 (+1.5%) (YTD: +5.3%)
BB: 1,131.4 (-0.5%) (YTD: -7.0%)

Share This Section

Calendar

11 October (Tuesday): 2nd Annual Leasing Conference entitled “New insights to stimulate financing instruments”, Four Seasons Nile Plaza Hotel, Plaza Ballroom, Cairo.

11-12 October (Tuesday-Wednesday): Global Islamic Economy Summit, Madinat Jumeirah, Dubai.

12 October (Wednesday): The Factoring Role in promoting SMEs conference, Semiramis Intercontinental Hotel, Cairo.

12 October (Wednesday): NTRA board decides fate of spectrum rejected by the three mobile network operators.

19 October (Wednesday): Digital Media Forum Cairo, Four Seasons Nile Plaza Hotel, Cairo.

24 October (Monday) EBRD executive meeting in Egypt on sustainable development strategy.

24-29 October (Monday-Saturday): The 2016 Dubai Design Week Iconic City exhibition Cairo NOW City Incomplete, Dubai Design District (d3), Dubai

26-27 October (Wednesday-Thursday): The Marketing Kingdom Cairo 2 event, Cairo.

31 October (Monday): Deadline for Telecom Egypt to reach an agreement with MNOs over using their 2G and 3G network infrastructure

November (TBD): Delegation of German companies in the renewable energy sector due to visit to discuss investment opportunities.

(xx HH) 3 November (Thursday): The Emirates NBD PMI for Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the UAE compiled by Markit comes out here.

14-16 November (Monday-Wednesday): Bank of America Merrill Lynch MENA 2016 Conference, The Ritz Carlton, Dubai International Financial Centre, Dubai.

17 November (Thursday): Central Bank of Egypt’s Monetary Policy Committee meets to review rates.

27 November (Sunday): 2016 Cairo ICT, Cairo International Convention Centre.

29-30 November (Tuesday-Wednesday): Citi’s Global Consumer Conference, London, UK.

04-06 December (Sunday-Tuesday): Solar-Tec exhibition, Cairo International Convention Centre.

04-06 December (Sunday-Tuesday): Electricx exhibition, Cairo International Convention Centre.

07-08 December: Citi’s 2016 Global Healthcare Conference, London, UK.

10-13 December (Saturday-Tuesday): Projex Africa and MS Marmomacc + Samoter Africa, Cairo International Convention Centre.

11 December (Sunday): Prophet Muhammad’s Birthday (national holiday; date to be confirmed).

11-13 December (Sunday-Tuesday): The Middle East Fire, Security & Safety Exhibition and Conference (MEFSEC), Cairo International Convention Centre, Cairo.

13 December (Tuesday): Amwal Al Ghad’s top 50 most influential women in Egypt women forum, Four Seasons Nile Plaza Hotel, Cairo.

29 December (Thursday): Central Bank of Egypt’s Monetary Policy Committee meets to review rates.

14-16 February 2017 (Tuesday-Thursday): Egyptian Petroleum Show, Cairo International Convention and Exhibition Centre.

Enterprise is a daily publication of Enterprise Ventures LLC, an Egyptian limited liability company (commercial register 83594), and a subsidiary of Inktank Communications. Summaries are intended for guidance only and are provided on an as-is basis; kindly refer to the source article in its original language prior to undertaking any action. Neither Enterprise Ventures nor its staff assume any responsibility or liability for the accuracy of the information contained in this publication, whether in the form of summaries or analysis. © 2022 Enterprise Ventures LLC.

Enterprise is available without charge thanks to the generous support of HSBC Egypt (tax ID: 204-901-715), the leading corporate and retail lender in Egypt; EFG Hermes (tax ID: 200-178-385), the leading financial services corporation in frontier emerging markets; SODIC (tax ID: 212-168-002), a leading Egyptian real estate developer; SomaBay (tax ID: 204-903-300), our Red Sea holiday partner; Infinity (tax ID: 474-939-359), the ultimate way to power cities, industries, and homes directly from nature right here in Egypt; CIRA (tax ID: 200-069-608), the leading providers of K-12 and higher level education in Egypt; Orascom Construction (tax ID: 229-988-806), the leading construction and engineering company building infrastructure in Egypt and abroad; Moharram & Partners (tax ID: 616-112-459), the leading public policy and government affairs partner; Palm Hills Developments (tax ID: 432-737-014), a leading developer of commercial and residential properties; Mashreq (tax ID: 204-898-862), the MENA region’s leading homegrown personal and digital bank; Industrial Development Group (IDG) (tax ID:266-965-253), the leading builder of industrial parks in Egypt; Hassan Allam Properties (tax ID:  553-096-567), one of Egypt’s most prominent and leading builders; and Saleh, Barsoum & Abdel Aziz (tax ID: 220-002-827), the leading audit, tax and accounting firm in Egypt.