Sunday, 15 November 2015

No Egyptian involved in Paris attack, ambassador to France says;
Daesh terrorist who slaughtered 21 Coptic Christians killed in U.S. strike

TL;DR

No Egyptian involved in Paris attack, ambassador to Paris says; Daesh terrorist who slaughtered 21 Coptic Christians killed in U.S. strike (What We’re Tracking Today)

S&P cuts Egypt credit outlook to ‘Stable’ on lower GCC support (Speed Round)

Making sense of last week’s appreciation of the EGP (Speed Round)

Carrefour to open nine new branches at cost of EGP 2 bn (Other Business News of Note)

EgyptAir banned from flying to Moscow (Speed Round)

U.S. Congress seems set to approve USD 1.3 bn in military aid to Egypt (Speed Round)

By the Numbers + EFG Hermes earnings in line with estimate, share remains a buy

WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

No Egyptian involved in the Paris attacks? It seems increasingly unlikely an Egyptian national was involved in the Paris terror attacks that claimed 129 lives this weekend. Reports surfaced on Saturday afternoon that an Egyptian passport was found “in proximity” to the body of a dead attacker and that one attacker may have used a Syrian travel document. Egypt’s ambassador to France called in to Lamis El Hadidy last night to deny an Egyptian was involved. The French media reports have crossed over to the international press, but CNN is reporting that “a source close to the investigation told CNN that … ‘There is strong assumption that these passports are fake.’”

At time of dispatch, there are currently no restrictions barring travel to France by air, sea or land — but there are heightened security measures in place, most markets and all tourist sites have been closed to observe the three days of national mourning.

In related news: Terrorist who led murder of Coptic Christians is killed in strike as Western powers step-up military action against Daesh leadership. Picking up where we left off in the weekend edition, the U.S. is now reportedly “reasonably certain“ it killed the Daesh terrorist nicknamed “Jihadi John” in a drone strike. Mohamed Emwazi, a Kuwait-born British national, became infamous for decapitating western hostages in propaganda videos. The news was followed by reports this morning that a U.S. drone strike killed ‘Abu Nabil,’ the Daesh operative in Libya who led the on-camera slaughter in February of Coptic Christians taken hostage there.

The 37th Cairo International Film Festival (CIFF) continues this week.

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LAST NIGHT’S TALK SHOWS

Egyptian talk shows hosts unanimously called attention to the disparity between how the world reacts to terror-related tragedies in Egypt versus outpourings of grief and support for the French in the wake of Saturday’s terror attack. What all of the hosts seemed blithely unaware of is that Egypt has not conclusively said that Flight 9268 was downed by terrorist action, which begs the question: What, exactly, are they complaining about? Didn’t each and every last one of them say just last week that it wasn’t terrorism?

Lamis El Hadidy, host of CBC’s Hona El Assema, tweeted on Friday in Arabic, with regard to the Paris terror attacks:

“We [Egyptians] want to send a security detail to Paris’ restaurants, this is worrying.”

The comment caused immediate outrage across social media.

During El Hadidy’s show, Egypt’s Ambassador to France, Ehab Badawi, called-in to assure viewers that no Egyptians are suspected of an involvement in the Paris attacks.

Osama Kamal opened Saturday night’s episode of Cairo 360 by offering his condolences to the French people. The host then sent a stern message to the Egyptian people, who, he claims, failed to respect Egypt’s security apparatus despite of the trying times that the country has been going through.

Kamal: “The French have implemented security measure that are more extreme than those found in Egypt. The roads have been blocked, a curfew has been implemented, and the borders have been closed. Additionally, protests have been banned… Not one French citizen has attacked their military or police in the way that we often do to our [security apparatus] when a calamity occurs.”

Midway through the episode, ambassador Serenade Gamil telephoned-in with updates on the status of an Egyptian citizen who was injured in the Paris attacks. “The citizen is recovering at a Paris hospital ICU. He is the only Egyptian citizen who is believed to have been injured in the attacks.”

After chastising the international community for not standing by Egypt in the face of terror, Kamal had a 30-minute conversation with Osama El Sheikh on that state of Egyptian media, followed by a half-hour talk with Secretary of the US Air Force Deborah Lee James. Kamal and James discussed Egypt’s relationship with the United States for the majority of the segment, with James confirming that her country would continue to assist Egypt in its fight against terror.

Over on Al Qahera Al Youm, Amr Adeeb devoted the majority of his program to coverage of the world’s response to the Paris attacks. The host began the episode with a depressing yet honest talk on the differences between the status of the Arab world and the West.

Adeeb: “Yesterday, many Egyptians were talking about the West’s hypocrisy regarding the Paris attacks. They compared Egypt and the Arab world to the United States and Europe. They asked why France was being treated differently than Egypt. … Are you really comparing Egypt to France? Airbus’s capital is equivalent to the GDP of the largest oil-exporting Arab country. …  Tomorrow, the Champs Élysées will be back to normal, pristine and full of tourists and we will remain in our sorry state… The West perceives us as terrorists. And they have a point — why should they view us as anything better? … The West never received anything positive from the Arabs: terrorism, backwardness, poverty, and refugees.”

Halfway through the episode, Hisham El Nahas, president of state-owned EgyptAir telephoned-in to assure viewers that their planes possessed some of the most advanced security and safety systems in the world. El Nahas then called on viewers to purchase EgyptAir tickets and to visit domestic destinations to support Egypt’s ailing tourism sector. Adeeb appeared frustrated and annoyed with El Nahas’ comments and later said the national flag carrier’s strategy would do little to solve Egypt’s tourism crisis.

SPEED ROUND

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S&P cuts Egypt Credit Outlook from ‘Positive’ to ‘Stable’ on lower GCC support: Standard & Poor’s credit rating agency cut Egypt’s rating outlook to stable from positive on expectations that Egypt may receive decreased financial support from the GCC, Bloomberg reported. “The stable outlook reflects our expectation that Egypt will largely remain politically stable, its economy will continue to progressively grow in the face of important macroeconomic headwinds, and that fiscal deficits will improve but remain at high levels,” according to the S&P report. “The economic recovery is supported by improved political conditions, a recovery in construction, manufacturing, services, and tourism.”

The appreciation of the EGP last week could mark the beginning of a shift in how the CBE manages the exchange rate, “with evidence growing that the central bank may be preparing for a more flexible exchange rate mechanism,” Reuters suggests. “From here, we will see more volatility but with the Egyptian pound on a declining trend … My hope is that they allow volatility first so it is not a one-way bet, but then allow the currency to move down,” HSBC’s Simon Williams said, expecting the USD 1 to be trading at EGP 9 by mid-2016. Pharos’ Hany Genena agrees with Williams’ assessment and notes that moves to ensure the availability of staple goods, like GASC’s unusual issuance of a tender to buy poultry, are designed to ensure the availability of such staples before a possible depreciation. On the other hand, political concerns still weigh heavily, with CI Capital’s Hany Farahat saying, “Politically, I don’t believe Egypt is ready to float … This revaluation is an insignificant move compared to what would need to be done to prepare the economy for a free float” even though he believes that economically, there is a pressing need for rapid devaluation.

… As for what happened last Wednesday on the monetary policy front, a source told Al Ahram that the CBE intervened in the market and sold USD to banks directly; there was no FX auction. The central bank set the rate at which the USD was sold, driving the value of the EGP against the USD up by EGP 0.2, the source noted.

CBE Chairman-designate Tarek Amer abruptly cancelled his meeting with the Tourism Investors Association of South Sinai and the Federation of Egyptian Banks, which was scheduled to take place today, Al Shorouk reports. The move angered businessmen and investors who were anticipating a meeting to discuss strategies to help the ailing tourism sector, including deferring loan payments and the extension of fresh credit facilities. Occupancy rates have dropped 80% in the first half of November alone in South Sinai, according to the head of the South Sinai Chamber of Commerce, Hussam Al Sha’er. Occupancy rates in the Red Sea governorate plummeted to 25% as a result of the Russian and English travel bans, said Ali Reda, head Tourism Investors Association of South Sinai. Regional and domestic tourism has so far done little to compensate for the drop, Al Borsa reports.

Federation of Egyptian Industries President El Sewedy praised the central bank’s support of rising interest rates (with the logic being that the CBE had to have at least signed off on Banque Misr and NBE raising rates on three-year deposits to 12.5%). El Sewedy as expressed gratitude  in a press release issued on Thursday to the CBE for releasing USD 1 bn of the USD 4 bn it promised to inject into the market to cover imports, AMAY reports.

Concerns over EgyptAir’s safety record was what prompted Russian authorities to ban the national flag carrier from flying to Moscow, said Russian Transportation Minister Maksim Sokolov. He added that the ban on all EgyptAir flights to Russia was a consequence of the Russian Metrojet crash in a statement on Saturday, linking the ban to the fallen aircraft. The ban on EgyptAir’s flights began on Saturday, with no word on when they would resume, said EgyptAir CEO Sherif Fathy. He criticized the Russian state aviation agency Rosaviatsia’s decision, calling it “surprising.” EgyptAir submitted a Russian-language report on its security measures which was requested by Rosaviatsia, Ahram Online reports. Kazakhstan is also reportedly suspending flights to Egypt, according to Interfax on Friday as reported by Reuters; Egypt Air, meanwhile, has denied it even has flights to Kazakhstan.

Repercussions of Russia’s travel ban is seeping into other sectors tying both countries, as a Russian delegation postponed a visit scheduled for yesterday to finalize agreements for a Russian industrial zone in the Gulf of Suez. According to sources speaking in the Industrial Development Authority to Al Borsa, the cancellation was a result of the travel ban. The Russian industrial zone is to be the site for a number of Russian manufacturing investments and was seen as a precursor to the possible establishment of a free trade zone between the two countries.

…Russian tour companies have claimed USD 23 mn in losses after the Egypt flight suspension, the Moscow Times reported on Wednesday. A conflicting report which we cited last Wednesday from Russian state-owned news agency TASS had put that number at USD 10 mn.

Wilayat Sina could begin posing a considerable threat to Egypt’s energy sector, but IOCs are unfazed, Rachel Williamson suggests. The terrorist organisation “may shift tack and increasingly look to target oil and gas interests across Egypt as it seeks to place the Egyptian economy under even greater pressure,” a director at risk consultancy Verisk Maplecroft suggested. The IOCs Williamson contacted, however, remained positive about Egypt. Shell’s MENA spokesperson gave a statement saying that the situation in Egypt “has significantly and rapidly improved.” Other companies, such as Dana Gas and Apache, are quietly increasing their investments in Egypt and BP announced publicly that it is accelerating the development of its Atoll field. “The positive tone is a distinct shift from two years ago” and “the opportunities available in Egypt today appear more lucrative,” Williamson explains.

The Wilayat Sina leader killed last week was reportedly responsible for killing of Apache employee William Henderson and beheading of Croatian national Tomislav Salopek, energy news outlet Fuel Fix reported on Friday. Aly Ashraf Hassanein al Gharabli was killed in a firefight with security personnel, which we noted last Tuesday. “When reached for comment, Apache said the investigation into Henderson’s death was still ongoing, but that ‘the safety and security of our employees and their families are our top priority in Egypt,’” Fuel Fix reported.

Eni signed a new concession and three amendment agreements in Egypt, the company announced on Thursday. The agreements will “lead to the realization of projects to be implemented in the next 4 years” and inject investments of more than USD 2 bn, the press release noted. The amendments are for “the IEOC concessions of ‘Sinai 12 and Abu Madi’, ‘North Port Said’ and ‘Baltim’, which is in partnership with BP, and signed one new Concession Agreement, ‘Ashrafi’, in partnership with ENGIE.” The press release also notes that some of the projects “are currently in the execution phase and one additional well in Baltim Concession is already in production.” Amwal Al Ghad says the agreements are bringing in USD 2.2 bn in investment in addition to USD 544 mn in signing grants.

Anadarko Petroleum’s CEO said “a confidentiality agreement with Apache to explore a possible deal were rejected and no substantial talks took place,” without disclosing the size of its bid. The WSJ quotes analysts in saying that Apache shares are still relatively undervalued and the company will likely not agree to a buyout unless it is above the current market price. Apache is now the largest oil and gas producer in Egypt.

The US Congress seems set to approve another USD 1.3 bn in military aid to Egypt despite rising security and dissent concerns, reports Reuters. “I worry when they arrest people for no good reason, when they have 40,000 or so people in prison and there’s clearly been an abridgement of various freedoms, such as the press and others,” Republican Senator John McCain told Reuters. Obama’s decision to resume military aid to Egypt on 31 March was designed to “modernize” the relationship by focusing security assistance on counter terrorism, border security, Sinai security and maritime security, according to Emily Horne, a spokesperson for the White House’s National Security Council.

The Egyptian government is nearing a settlement in the case against Mubarak-era businessman Hussein Salem for “bns of EGP” said Justice Minister Ahmed El Zend in a call-in on Ahmed Moussa’s “‘Ala Mas’oolity”. According to El Zend, President Abdel Fattah El Sisi is in favor of the settlement and reconciliation policy for those charged in major economic cases, Al Mal reports. He added that El Sisi requested EGP 10 bn from Salem, who is charged with damaging state interests by selling gas to Israel at below market prices. Former president Mohamed Morsi had reportedly floated the idea of allowing reconciliation with Salem, and was attacked for the proposed idea. Our take: This is an evergreen story; whenever there’s a combination of discontent and lack of funds the first thing any post-2011 government starts talking about loudly in the media is retrieving Mubarak’s alleged “bns” and getting Hussein Salem to return from Spain in exchange for almost all of his fortune.

GCC companies are missing the boat on Africa, says Arabian Business’ Courtney Trenwith, highlighting Egypt’s Mohamed Mansour as one of four leading regional businessmen with substantial operations on the continent in her piece on “The race for Africa.” Writes Trenwith: “In any emerging market, it is a matter of first come, first served. In Africa, the firing gun has sounded but the GCC remains at the starting block. It has the money and expertise to catch up, but if it stalls much longer, the race will be over before it has barely begun.

Bloomberg doesn’t try very hard to tie them all together, but it’s take on “Six Strange Things That Have Been Happening in Financial Markets“ is worth a read this morning, covering everything from negative swap spreads to the volatility of volatility.

SPOTLIGHT on the Paris terror attacks

At least eight Daesh militants, all of whom are now dead (seven in suicide bombings), launched a series of coordinated attacks in Paris on Friday evening that left at least 129 people dead and hundreds of more injured, Reuters reports. The militants used a combination of suicide bombings, explosives, and gunfire to kill their victims, starting with suicide bombings at Stade de France and ending with security forces launching their assault on the Bataclan nightclub, where militants had taken hostages and systematically killed 89 people. For detailed timelines, see the Guardian and the BBC.

Daesh has claimed responsibility in a statement released to the internet, but which (like the claim of responsibility for the downing of the Metrojet in Sinai) was short on specifics. Paris’ chief prosecutor believes at present that three teams were involved in the assault. Witnesses reported that the militants shouted Allahu Akbar, and that one of the terrorists reportedly said the attacks were in response to French intervention in Syria. One BBC report claims that a Syrian passport was found near the body of one of the suicide bombers, while another BBC report says it was an Egyptian passport, with no mention of the Syrian passport. Subsequent reports in the media dropped references to an Egyptian passport, sticking with the story that a Syrian passport of an individual seeking asylum had been found. Other reports raise doubts on the authenticity of the Syrian passport in question.

French president Francois Hollande declared a state of emergency, blaming Daesh for the attack, which he called an act of war. New border controls are in effect, and a three-day mourning period has been declared.

On Saturday, President Abdel Fattah El Sisi spoke by phone with French President François Hollande to express his condolences and those of the Egyptian people and its government to the people of France, according to an emailed statement from Ittihadiya. The statement notes that President Hollande said that the attacks would only strengthen the determination of France to continue fighting and eradicating terrorism in cooperation with friendly countries.

EGYPT IN THE NEWS

Egypt’s Sisi signals shift toward Muslim Brotherhood’: Sahar Aziz, an associate professor of law at Texas A&M University, mistakenly thinks that President Abdel Fattah El Sisi’s comments made before his visit to the UK, where he stated that the Muslim Brotherhood “are part of Egypt and so the Egyptian people must decide what role they can play,” was the first time he’s made such a statement. El Sisi has made the statement numerous times in the past, always with the caveat: the Egyptian people must decide. This is shorthand for: nothing is going to change on this front. In terms of domestic rapprochement, the problem has not been with the government, but rather with a recalcitrant Brotherhood, which has not changed its negotiating position since the day Morsi was removed from power: Their position is that Morsi is still the president, the middle-aged veterinarians and physicians waddling around freely in Istanbul are the exile parliament — and that Egypt’s leadership must be put on trial and executed. (Read)

Egypt’s woes erode el-Sissi’s image of invincibility: The AP has a well-researched piece on the recent spate of arrests facing the Egyptian media as well as the media’s backlash. “The security apparatus is in full control,” said Waheed Abdel-Meguid, a former lawmaker and a political analyst. “El-Sissi empowered them to end political life in Egypt because he thinks it gets in the way of his work. Now they are free to do whatever they want. The result is they make decisions that reflect poorly on him.” (Read)

The New York Times’ outgoing Egypt bureau chief David Kirkpatrick chimes in with a near-replica of the above story.

WORTH READING

Most of us don’t need pharmacological help to stay focused. Michael Lipson at the Harvard Business Review argues that improving your ability to focus on any particular task is as simple as observing the four phases of distraction when they strike. By simply observing these stages and “with repeated attention to the process, you will tend to stay with the original focus longer before distraction sets in.” (Read To Improve Your Focus, Notice How You Lose It)

IMAGE OF THE DAY

Unnamed pianist plays John Lennon’s Imagine outside the Bataclan on Saturday, the site of the bloodiest of Friday’s coordinated terror attacks against Paris. (View image, photo credit: Kenzo Tribouillard)

DIPLOMACY + FOREIGN TRADE

Egypt begins implementing investment framework agreement with US
Industry Minister Tarek Kabil received an invitation from the US trade representative to begin discussing implementing the framework agreement on private investment and bilateral trade.
Kabil stressed the importance the US-Egypt Business Council to the strengthening of economic ties between the two countries (Read in Arabic)

ENERGY

EBRD to engage consultant to tackle APG flaring in Egypt
The EBRD is looking to engage a consultant to address the issues of associated petroleum gas (APG) flaring in Egypt. It wants to know the regulatory barriers stopping APG flaring from being reduced, to find solutions to them, and to present the findings to Egypt’s policy makers. The EBRD has identified gas flaring as a significant issue in Egypt’s energy sector and says it undertook prior work to identify the scale of APG flaring, which is estimated at 2 bcm per annum — or 4% of Egypt’s 2014 gas consumption. Barriers to fixing the problem include the structure of the production sharing agreements that give operators limited ownership over produced APG. (Read)

BP signs three-year contract extension with Maersk’s Discoverer rig
Maersk Discoverer deepwater rig will drill in Egypt’s offshore gasfields until August 2019, following news that “Maersk Drilling has been awarded a three-year contract extension for the ultra-deepwater semi-submersible [rig] with oil major BP.” Maersk Drilling says Discoverer set new benchmarks for operational efficiency with the rig recording “the six fastest wells ever drilled in terms of days per 10,000 feet of drilling.” (Read)

Electricity Minister meets with Siemens, El Sewedy and Orascom to review progress on power projects
Electricity Minister Mohamed Shaker held a meeting on Saturday with executives from Siemens, El Sewedy Electric and OCI to discuss progress on power projects at the new administrative capital, Burullus, Kafr El Sheikh and Beni Suef, according to the ministry’s spokesperson. At the meeting, Shaker strongly urged that the projects be completed on schedule and they should be operational by early 2017. Siemens has already been paid EUR 900 mn out of EUR 6 bn cost of its projects. (Read in Arabic)

INFRASTRUCTURE

Hassan Allam Co. to complete developments in East Port Said Port by mid-2016
The Nasr General Contracting Company (Hassan Allam) announced it would complete developments on one of the docks at the East Port Said Port by mid 2016, at a total cost of EGP 500 mn. The project is part of the bigger New Suez Canal Axis development project, said company Chairman Abdallah Khairy, noting his company’s interest in further expanding its operations in docks and infrastructure in the Suez Canal zone. (Read in Arabic)

AFD offers to finance water treatment plants’ expansion in Alexandria
Agence Française de Développement (AFD) has offered to finance the expansion of a two water treatment plants in Alexandria. The AFD is offering relaxed-term loans to develop and expand the eastern and western treatment plants. A team from the AFD has requested to meet with the Housing Minister to present their offer. (Read in Arabic)

Housing Ministry completes 12 water and wastewater projects worth EGP 7 bn
The Housing Ministry completed 12 water infrastructure projects across the nation totaling EGP 7 bn, including seven drinking water projects and five wastewater projects. The Administrative Control Authority (ACA) and the Engineering Authority of the Armed Forces are inspecting the projects ahead of their official commissioning, as per a mandate by President El Sisi, to ensure they meet standards. (Read in Arabic)

BASIC MATERIALS + COMMODITIES

Ministry of Supply inks Italian protocol to establish commodity exchange
Supply Minister Khaled Hanafy inked a cooperation protocol with Andrea Zanlari, the head of the Commodity Exchange in Italy, to establish a commodity exchange in Egypt. The exchange will create a fair and competitive commercial system that will benefit the country, said Hanafy. Egypt and Italian have already agreed upon other projects including 10 horizontal silos and two logistical zones in the coming period. (Read in Arabic)

EMRA denies Centamin request to allocate concession by direct order
The Egyptian Mineral Resources Authority denied a request made by Centamin to have a concession allocated to it by direct order. The concession is located near Centamin’s current Sukari concession. An unnamed official told Al Borsa ERMA can’t legally allocate by direct order due to the new mineral resources law that requires concessions be put to an international auction. (Read in Arabic)

Supply and Agriculture Ministries plan to accelerate importing beef and chicken
The Supply and Agriculture Ministries are cooperating with the Armed Forces to accelerate the rate at which meat and chicken is imported this month as part of the government policy to control market prices of essential goods. The Supply and Agriculture Ministries are still drawing up a list of goods on which they will focus ahead of issuing importing tenders. (Read in Arabic)

MANUFACTURING

153 new industrial projects in October -IDA
The Industrial Development Authority greenlit 153 new industrial projects in October with a combined investment cost of EGP 2.6 bn, creating 4,568 jobs. That compared with 113 projects at a cost of EGP 581 mn the previous year, according to Trade and Industry Minister Tarek Kabil, reports Al Mal. The projects spanned eight industries, including food products (53 projects) and ‘engineering’ with 33, the newspaper said. The IDA also greenlit 66 expansion projects with a total investment cost of EGP 3.1 bn. (Read in Arabic)

HEALTH + EDUCATION

FDA approves expanded use of Hep-C cure Harvoni
The US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approved the expanded use of Gilead Sciences’ combination antiviral drug Harvoni in patients with genotype 4, 5, and 6 chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection and in patients co-infected with HIV, announced the company in a press release issued on Thursday. As noted on Thursday, Egypt’s Health Ministry approved the use of Harvoni and will import 90,000 units at a total cost of EGP 275 mn. (Read in Arabic)

REAL ESTATE + HOUSING

EFSA issues guidelines for the real estate financing sector
EFSA has published a set of guidelines, standards and practices for the real estate financing sector in the official gazette’s Thursday issue. These new guidelines focus primarily on transparency, obliging the lender to disclose any and all due diligence, transaction details, terms and conditions of the lease agreement in addition to setting guarantees in the event a borrower dies, defaults or refuses to pay. We had reported in October on these guidelines which were announced in an EFSA press release.

TOURISM

An unnamed airline plans to invest USD 150 mn in Egypt -Aviation minister
An unnamed airline group plans to invest USD 150 mn in Egypt after a meeting with Tourism Minister Hisham Zaazou. Civil Aviation Minister Hussam Kamal said that the company’s project will help support the ailing tourism industry, without giving specifics on what the project is, exactly, promising to expedite permits for the project. (Read in Arabic)

TELECOMS + ICT

HitekNofal lands tech contract for 20 Metro stations
Business solutions specialist HitekNofal has won a tender to deliver surveillance cameras and screens to monitor platforms at 20 Cairo Metro stations before the end of next month. The EGP 42 mn tender was issued by the Egyptian Company for Metro Management and Operations. The company completed a pilot project on five stations including El Shohada, Sadat, and Attaba and is expected to extend the tech solutions to all 55 stations under an extension of the same tender. (Read in Arabic)

NTRA to launch crackdown on telecom subscription violators this week
The NTRA will launch a sweeping inspection of telecom retailers nationwide to ensure that regulations regarding subscriptions are being followed. These regulations include signing contracts with new subscribers and obtaining a detailed profile on customers. Mobinil and Etisalat were fined EGP 350K for violations in May, with both of them blaming these on retailers. (Read in Arabic)

AUTOMOTIVE + TRANSPORTATION

Talks to form transportation crimes court; Railway Authority has EGP 26 bn in debts
Transportation and Justice Ministers Saad El Geyoushi and Ahmed El Zend agreed to form a transportation crimes court to be located in Mahatet Masr Station, Transportation Ministry spokesman Ahmed Ibrahim said on Saturday, Al Mal reports. The goal behind the formation of such a court is to regulate and prevent some riders from evading ticket purchases, which costs the state mns of EGP. In connection to this, El Geyoushi said that the Railway Authority’s total debts to the state amount to EGP 26 bn, according to Al Borsa.

BANKING + FINANCE

CBE to greenlight private sector banks issuance of 3-year and 5-year savings certificates
The CBE will begin offering licenses to private sector bank for the issuance of 3- and 5-year saving certificates to consumers. The move should allow private sector banks to compete with their public sector counterparts, who began issuing these types of certificates last week. In related news, NBE is expected to recommence its issuance of its 3-year 12.5% savings certificate today. (Read in Arabic)

Ministry of Electricity inks contract to secure funding for Siemens projects from German banking consortium
A German banking consortium is set to sign a loan agreement on 22 November to finance Siemens’ EUR 6 bn in energy projects in Egypt, according to Electricity Minister Mohamed Shaker, despite initial announcements of a domestic bank consortium that included NBE, CIB, and AAIB. A banking consortium made up of KfW Development Bank, Deutsche Bank, and HSBC Germany will provide EUR 4.1 bn out of the EUR 6 bn required for the three projects in Beni Suef, Borolos, and the new administrative capital with a total capacity of 14.4 GW. The loan, will be paid over a period of 12 years, with a three-year grace period. The Beni Suef project’s final agreement will be signed on 22 November, while Borolos and the Administrative Capital will be signed in December. (Read in Arabic)

LAW

Matouk Bassiouny to provide pro-bono legal consulting to Egypt’s tourism development fund
Law practice Matouk Bassiouny said it is going to provide legal consulting to Egypt’s tourism development fund. Matouk Bassiouny said the work provided will be done for free. The fund will be USD-denominated and will be issued to investors after all regulations are met and after it receives EFSA’s approval. (Read in Arabic)

EGYPT POLITICS + ECONOMICS

CBE to issue EUR 700 mn in one-year T-bills
The CBE will issue a EUR 700 mn one-year treasury bill, Reuters said on Thursday. The foreign currency-denominated issuance is scheduled for 16 November. The CBE said eligible subscribers are local and foreign financial institutions. (Read)

Trade Minister to develop electronic platform for import / export bureaucracy
Establishing an electronic platform for import / export and customs bureaucracy will among the Trade Ministry’s top priorities, said Trade Minister Tarek Kabil. The move would not only make trade more efficient, but will boost Egypt’s standing in international indices, said Kabil at a meeting with the Transportation Minister and the Federation of Chambers of Commerce. He added that there needs to be legislations and regulations to adequately manage the overlapping work of multiple trade related agencies in order to expedite the process. (Read in Arabic)

OTHER BUSINESS NEWS OF NOTE

Carrefour set to open nine branches at an estimated cost of EGP 2 bn
Egypt’s Supply and Internal Trade Minister Khaled Hanafi will inaugurate on Sunday a Carrefour outlet in Tanta, Gharbiya. Carrefour plans to open nine additional branches, spanning between 20K to 40K meters squared in area, requiring EGP 2 bn in investments. All of these branches will be located outside of the governorates of Alexandria and Cairo. (Read in Arabic)

NATIONAL SECURITY

El Sisi meets Lockheed Martin chief: President Abdel Fattah El Sisi sat had a sit-down on Thursday with Lockheed Martin chief executive Marillyn Hewson. A readout on the meeting from Ittihadiya notes that the two discussed “longstanding and ongoing … cooperation between Egypt and Lockheed Martin [on] delivery of F-16 fighter jets and equipment to Egypt.” Hewson also met with AmCham’s Anis Aclimandos and Hisham Fahmy. Al Shorouk has the story in Arabic.

Armed Forces Chief of Staff Mahmoud Hegazy returned from Paris on Saturday after meetings to discuss strengthening security and military cooperation. The trip took place before the Paris terrorist attacks. (Read in Arabic)

SPORTS

Egypt began its 2018 World Qualifiers quest with disappointment as it lost 0-1 to Chad during the African World Cup qualifiers game in Chad yesterday. The Egyptian team controlled the game during the first half, but failed to threaten the opponent’s goal, and the first half ended with an equalizer. During the second half, Chad picked up their tempo and shocked the Pharaohs with a header by team Captain Ezechiel Ndouassel in the 73rd minute, the only goal of the night. With the first loss of Egypt’s national team under the management of Hector Cúper, the Pharaohs will have a chance redeem themselves during the second leg of the qualifier when Egypt once again play against Chad on Tuesday in Alexandria. History will remember, however, that yesterday Chad beat Egypt for the first time ever.

ON YOUR WAY OUT

President Abdel Fattah El Sisi ordered completion of procedures to build Daba’a nuclear power plant, after receiving a full technical, financial, and security briefing on the MoU signed with Rosatom in February to build four nuclear power plants at the Daba’a site each with a capacity of 1,200 MW. (Read in Arabic)

Water resources ministry on high alert for upcoming annual storm in Delta and North Egypt governorates
The Irrigation and Water Resources Ministry announced that it is on “high alert” for storms expected to impact the Delta and other northern Egyptian governorates in the coming week, AMAY reports. Several water stations are currently undergoing renovations in anticipation of potential floods, including several Alexandria and Shabrakheet stations. Irrigation Minister Hossam Moghazi instructed governorates to form operations rooms to monitor bridges, canals, drains and operation of different water stations in anticipation of heavy rainfall. (Read in Arabic)

Prosecution investigates Alexandria sewage system corruption case: The public funds prosecution in Alexandria is looking into the 2013 purchase by officials of EGP 30 mn in water pumps meant to help mitigate flooding in Alexandria – pumps which do not meet specifications and as a result have yet to be installed, Ahram Online reports. Investigators are looking into the role that the lack of such infrastructure had on the flooding in West Alexandria over the past two weeks.

A Google self-driving car got pulled over by a cop because it was “driving too slowly.” Google has capped the speed of its prototype vehicles at 25 mph, and after 1.2 mn miles of autonomous driving. It has never been ticketed.

BY THE NUMBERS
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USD CBE auction (Thursday, 12 November): 7.7301 (unchanged since Wednesday, 11 November)
USD parallel market (Thursday, 12 November): 8.70 (+0.10 since Wednesday, 11 November, Reuters)

EGX30 (Thursday): 6806.67 (+0.07%)
Turnover: EGP 432.8 mn (1% below the 90-day average)
EGX 30 year-to-date: -23.74%

Foreigners: Net Short | EGP -96.4 mn
Regional: Net Short | EGP -1.7 mn
Local: Net Long | EGP +98.1 mn

Institutions: 48.3% of total trades | 47.9% of buyers | 48.7% of sellers

Foreign: 31.6% of total | 20.5% of buyers | 42.7% of sellers
Regional: 6.6% of total | 6.4% of buyers | 6.8% of sellers
Domestic: 61.8% of total | 73.1% of buyers | 50.5% of sellers


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PHAROS VIEW

EFG-Hermes Q3-15 Net Attributable Profit in Line with Estimate

EFG-Hermes Holding reported an attributable net profit of EGP 120 mn in 3Q15, up 19% y-o-y. The group’s quarterly bottom line figure is slightly higher than our estimate of EGP 110 mn , and brings its 9M15 counterpart to EGP 381 mn, down 6% from the same period, a year earlier. The y-o-y slump in 9M15 bottom line remains undermined by a one-off capital gain generated during 9M14 relating to SODIC’s stake sale. Adjusted for one-off gain, the group’s bottom line is up 23% y-o-y. Both the group’s investment and commercial banks’ operations contributed positively to the bottom line with the latter growing its profit contribution to cc 67% of the aggregate bottom line, versus 61% just three months prior.

We’re maintaining a Buy on EFG Hermes, believing that its share price continues to be out of sync versus the firm’s intrinsic value. At the new book value of equity for Credit Libanais, a P/B of 0.7x and the prevailing USD/EGP rate of 7.83, current market valuations imply that IB operations and excess cash remain extremely undervalued at EGP 2.6 bn (excess cash alone is cc EGP 1.0 bn), which is almost half of its historic floor value as discussed in a number of previous notes. We therefore maintain our BUY recommendation on the EFG-Hermes stock post the 3Q15 results. Tap here to learn more.

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Enterprise is a daily publication of Enterprise Ventures LLC, an Egyptian limited liability company (commercial register 83594), and a subsidiary of Inktank Communications. Summaries are intended for guidance only and are provided on an as-is basis; kindly refer to the source article in its original language prior to undertaking any action. Neither Enterprise Ventures nor its staff assume any responsibility or liability for the accuracy of the information contained in this publication, whether in the form of summaries or analysis. © 2022 Enterprise Ventures LLC.

Enterprise is available without charge thanks to the generous support of HSBC Egypt (tax ID: 204-901-715), the leading corporate and retail lender in Egypt; EFG Hermes (tax ID: 200-178-385), the leading financial services corporation in frontier emerging markets; SODIC (tax ID: 212-168-002), a leading Egyptian real estate developer; SomaBay (tax ID: 204-903-300), our Red Sea holiday partner; Infinity (tax ID: 474-939-359), the ultimate way to power cities, industries, and homes directly from nature right here in Egypt; CIRA (tax ID: 200-069-608), the leading providers of K-12 and higher level education in Egypt; Orascom Construction (tax ID: 229-988-806), the leading construction and engineering company building infrastructure in Egypt and abroad; Moharram & Partners (tax ID: 616-112-459), the leading public policy and government affairs partner; Palm Hills Developments (tax ID: 432-737-014), a leading developer of commercial and residential properties; Mashreq (tax ID: 204-898-862), the MENA region’s leading homegrown personal and digital bank; Industrial Development Group (IDG) (tax ID:266-965-253), the leading builder of industrial parks in Egypt; Hassan Allam Properties (tax ID:  553-096-567), one of Egypt’s most prominent and leading builders; and Saleh, Barsoum & Abdel Aziz (tax ID: 220-002-827), the leading audit, tax and accounting firm in Egypt.