Monday, 20 April 2015

Arabtec moving on 1 mn homes project, but faces management shakeup. New Capital inching forward. KSA opening to foreign investors by 15 June. Abdelnour says electricity crisis will soon pass. Mobilegeddon could hit your company’s mobile search ranking.

WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

Emaar Misr’s annual shareholder meeting is set to take place today, and Princeton University will vote on divestment from Egypt and Israel.

WHAT WE’RE TRACKING THIS WEEK

21 April (Tuesday): Verdict expected in trial of Mohamed Morsi for inciting the killing of protesters during the Ittihadiya clashes of December 2012. The verdicts in two other trials of the former president — one for espionage and the other for escaping prison — are both set for 16 May. Morsi faces the death penalty in all three trials.

21-22 April (Tuesday-Wednesday): Al Mal-GTM Money and Finance Conference, Four Seasons Nile Plaza Hotel, Cairo.

22-23 April (Wednesday-Thursday): World Green Economy Summit, Dubai. Visit the official website here.

23 April (Thursday): CBE Monetary Policy Committee meeting. The first of two meetings at which the bank may opt for a rate cut. See more after Speed Round, below.

LAST NIGHT’S TALK SHOWS

The clashes at Cairo University and the arrest of the 14 pro-Brotherhood students featured prominently on last night’s talk shows.

Amr Adeeb spent a great deal of time last night defending himself and private media in general against accusations that they have gone overboard with their nightly criticism of the government. Adeeb in specific has taken to task several officials lately such as the Minister of Electricity over power outages and the recent bombing of the main electricity tower that power media productions city. “If you don’t like our model, then just please tell me which country’s media would you like us to emulate?

“A year ago, when things weren’t so stable, some of us were inclined to keep quiet. Now that Egypt is back on its feet, it is once again our responsibility to point out the things that are wrong. We are all that you have right now in the absence of a parliament,” said Adeeb. “Out of the 50 some issues that my colleagues and I raise each night, you might find something that is worthy of your attention the next day.”

Adeeb was joined Dr. Samir Ghattas, Head of the Middle East Forum for Strategic Studies, for a discussed of Hassan Nasrallah’s speech on Yemen last Friday. “Why the double standard, why does he talk about innocent Muslims dying in Yemen while ignoring what is happening in Syria,” asked Adeeb.

Lamees El Hadidy presented a segment on the harassment of women on university campuses with a panel of female university students and Nehad Abu Komsan, the director of the Egyptian Center for Women’s Rights.

Youssef El Housseiny interviewed Head of the Egyptian Press Syndicate and one of the region’s leading experts on political Islam, Diaa Rashwan about religious extremism and the need for reforming the religious discourse.

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SPEED ROUND

Arabtec has taken what Al Shorouk calls the first step in its one mn homes project by negotiating a USD 200 mn credit facility from UAE banks to finance the first phase. Arabtec is negotiating with NBAD and Union National Bank, as the two banks would be able to disburse the funds through their Egyptian subsidiaries. The company had also called on the Egyptian Contractors’ Association to provide the labor force for the project, according to Al Borsa. Don’t breathe a sigh of relief just yet: The news comes amid apotential change in leadership at the company as Arabtec Chairman Khadem Al Qubaisi is reportedly poised to leave, having withdrawn his name from the list of nominees for the board last Thursday. Separately, founder Riad Kamal told The National he resigned from the company’s board 18 months ago, despite still being listed on the company’s website as a director.

President El Sisi meets CIA chief Brennan in Cairo: President Abdelfattah El Sisi met with CIA Director Jon Brennan on Sunday, according to an emailed statement from Ittihadiya. Major General Khaled Fawzi, the head of Egypt’s General Intelligence and US ambassador to Cairo Stephen Beecroft, with the two sides discussing regional security concerns. We’re reading the Brennan story in parallel with the New York Times’ Sale of U.S. Arms Fuels the Wars of Arab States, which details the planned arms sales to various states in the Middle East by the United States, noting that some sales will mark the first ever made to non-NATO allies as defense contractors in the United States are set to profit from proxy wars which “American intelligence agencies believe … could last for years.”

Eurobond out by end-May, says Dimian: Finance Minister Hani Dimian said yesterday that the Egyptian government intends to issue its long awaited international bonds by the end of May and, in parallel, is putting the final touches on the sukuk law. Once completed, the sukuk law should allow the government to issue dollar-denominated Shariah compliant notes.(Read in Arabic)

Train ticket prices to increase by July: Egyptian National Railways is looking to cut losses caused by failing rolling stock and rising energy prices, with Al-Shorouk reporting that the price hikes will be in the 20-35% range as ENR hopes to add EGP 104 mn to its top line. ENR is currently running a deficit of EGP 3.4 bn, the paper notes.

New Tax Authority chief survives first day in office: Abdel Moneim Matar spent his first day in office filling senior-level vacancies, Matar told Al-Mal, explaining that he is waiting for Finance Minister Hani Dimian to return from Washington so that he may present his proposed business plan for the Authority. Matar is widely respected, the newspaper tells us, and was hailed on Facebook as the “Sisi of the Tax Authority”. Matar has also called a meeting of top deputies to discuss recent amendments to the tax code.

New administrative capital’s utilities to cost c. USD 2 bn -NUCA official: The government will provide the infrastructure for utilities in the proposed administrative capital at an estimated cost of USD 2 bn out of the total projected cost of USD 45 bn for the entire capital, according to the deputy head of NUCA Kamal Fahmy speaking to Aswat Masriya and as reported by Ahram Online. The construction of the new administrative capital is expected to consume 100,000 liters of water daily. In related news, Eng. Hassan Abdul Aziz, CEO of the Egyptian Federation for Construction and Building Contractors, noted yesterday that a committee will work with NUCA and the Housing Ministry to help triage which companies could work on the new capital, Al-Mal reports.

SanMar Group to invest USD 350 mn in Egypt: India’s SanMar Group is set to invest USD 350 mn in a new production line in Egypt following meetings with the group’s head and Egypt’s ambassador to India. The group already has USD 1.1 bn in Egypt’s petrochemicals’ sector and adding a new production line will bring the investment value up to USD 1.45 bn. Al Borsa notes that total investment by Indian companies in Egypt now stands at USD 2.5 bn.

Egypt sends delegation for Armenian genocide centennial: Pope Tawadros II will head a delegation of Egyptian Christian clergymen, as well as including Armenian expats in Egypt and journalists, to attend the 100th year observance of the Armenian genocide in Armenia from 20-26 April, according to state news agency MENA and as reported by Ahram Online. (Read)

Emaar Misr posts EGP 172.7 mn 1Q 2015 net profit, reports 110% rise in revenue: Emaar Misr, the Egyptian arm of Dubai developer Emaar Properties, on Sunday reported EGP 172.7 mn net profit, supported by strong revenue growth, up from EGP 30.7 mn y-o-y. Emaar Misr is expected to list on the EGX in 2Q 2015. (Read)

Government entities are not ready to participate with the private sector in PPP agreements as their contracts remain outdated and their ability to respond to scenario changes remains limited, Hani Sarie El Din said at a conference.

Saudi Arabia to open bourse to foreigners from mid-June 2015 -CMA: The Saudi Capital Market Authority (CMA) on Thursday stated that non-Saudis will be permitted to begin directly trading on the country’s bourse starting from 15 June this year, as reported by Bloomberg. “It’s a big boost for investors as it puts CMA plans beyond doubt about opening the market to foreign investment,” Mohammed Al-Suwayed, a Riyadh-based financial analyst and partner at market-analytics company SPT Investors LLC.” (Read)

30 Ethiopian Christians executed by Daesh in Libya: In two separate incidents, both filmed, Daesh executed two groups of Christian Ethiopians in Libya; 15 by beheading with the other 15 shot in the head. The AFP reports the Ethiopian embassy in Egypt is currently attempting to verify if the victims in the video were in fact its nationals. Reuters notes: “Egyptian security officials estimate that thousands of militants who share Islamic State’s ideology moved from the Sinai Peninsula to Libya after the army toppled President Mohamed Mursi of the Muslim Brotherhood in 2013.”

Over 700 migrants feared dead in capsizing in the Mediterranean: According to Italian authorities, only 28 have survived the disaster, putting pressure on European states to ramp up their efforts to both tackle human trafficking, as well as to find a solution that is both humanitarian in nature without inadvertently encouraging further illegal and dangerous migration by boat. (Read)

‘History of failure over gas policy in the Mediterranean’: Energy expert Robin Mills has some rather scathing words for Egypt, Israel, Lebanon and Cyprus on their development and management of their natural gas resources. “Good policy could still have overcome these disadvantages, and brought the benefits of gas and its revenues to the people of the East Mediterranean. But politicians and administrators in all four countries seem to prefer fighting over imaginary combs.” (Read)

Will ‘mobilegeddon’ nuke your company’s Google search ranking? Google is changing its algorithm for mobile search results to favor mobile-friendly sites when you search for something from your handset. Results from computers and tablets will remain unchanged, but the FT sees the EU, Microsoft and financial services company Legal and General as being among those whose rankings will slide. Business Insider carries a solid explainer from AP. How can you tell whether your company’s site will be demoted on mobile rankings?

  • Open your mobile browser and search for your company
  • Find its listing in the search results; if the third line down (before the description) notes “Mobile-friendly,” you’re set. If not, you may have trouble.

CORRECTION: In yesterday’s issue, we misstated religious scholar Habib Ali al-Jifri as Saudi; the scholar is actually of Yemeni origin. H/t Salah K. and Dina S.

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A MESSAGE FROM PHAROS HOLDING

Data Suggests CBE is Moving to Cut Rates Further, Bring on another Round of Depreciation

Current research from Pharos Holding suggests that the Central Bank of Egypt is close to executing another round of interest rate cuts of around 50bps during one of two upcoming MPC meetings, either on 23 April or 11 June this year. The cut is expected to be followed by depreciation in the EGP against the USD, bringing the exchange rate closer to the EGP 7.90-8.00 per USD mark from c. EGP 7.60-7.63 after the January 2015 cuts, which Pharos had predicted against the odds.

The success of a USD 1.5 bn Eurobond issuance slated for mid-2015 seems to be contingent upon further policy changes; with the USD-index trading near a 12-year high, the EGP appreciating nearly 17% against the EUR since mid-2014, and uncertainty clouding the immediate future of Turkey and the Eurozone (which together represent nearly half of Egypt’s non-oil imports), circumstances seem optimum for these policy moves. Read the full report here.

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WORTH WATCHING

The number of movie and video game trailers released in recent days is making nerds everywhere break into a profuse and uncontrollable sweat:

  • Star Wars: The Force Awakens, Trailer #2: Some familiar faces make a return. (Watch, running time: 1:59)
  • Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice (Watch, running time: 2:13)
  • Star Wars Battlefront: Cinematic trailer; not actual gameplay, despite the confusing “game engine” caption. (Watch, running time: 2:12)

DIPLOMACY

President Abdelfattah El Sisi met with the Archbishop of Canterbury Justin Wellby, who arrived in Egypt yesterday to offer his condolences over the beheadings of 20 Egyptian Coptic Christians by Daesh in Libya.
Prime Minister Ibrahim Mahlab is in Indonesia ahead of the Asia Africa Conference 60th Anniversary Commemoration (AACC), which is set to take place from 22-23 April, as reported by Al Borsa. The Jakarta Post reports that world leaders began to arrive in Jakarta yesterday.

Ministers of Agriculture and Irrigation on official visit to Sudan: Ministers of Agriculture and Irrigation Salah Helal and Hossam Maghazi landed in Khartoum, Sudan, on a three-day official visit. The visit seeks to strengthen cooperation between the two countries, particularly in agriculture, livestock production and water resources. The visit also is in preparation for the upcoming visit of Sudanese President Omar Al Bashir to Cairo next month. (Read in Arabic)

On Sunday, Qatar’s Foreign Minister Khalid bin Mohamed Al Attiyah was interviewed by Qatari newspaper Al Sharq, where he made some statements but we stopped paying attention in the middle of the first sentence.

EGYPT IN THE NEWS

The lead story on Egypt in the foreign press this morning is news of the sentencing of 11 football fans to death over the Port Said stadium riot of 2012. The verdicts have been referred to the Mufti for his advisory recommendation. The AFP’s take on the story is appearing in The Guardian, in addition to coverage inReuters, France 24, and Al Arabiya, among others.

Words fail to adequately describe The Economist’s breathless piece on the illicit recreational use of Tramadol in Egypt, a generic for the pain medication Ultram. “Friedman talking to a taxi-driver wisdom” is packed into each and every sentence of this relatively short piece. One sentence — which we can’t quote here because of the algorithms that govern deliverability to your inboxes — checks off two members of the Holy Trinity of Western journalism on Egypt: FGM: check; poverty: check; the only thing missing is a reference to Morsi’s ouster.

We do need to take issue with a claim made in the following quote: “There is no social stigma attached to Tramadol, says Hisham Mamdouh, who heads a Cairo rehabilitation centre.” Really? Because the last time this particular writer was sent to a pharmacy by his elderly aunt to buy her Xanax for “a headache,” the pharmacist nervously shot back: “No, we don’t have any Xanax. And we don’t have any Tramadol, either.” (Read ‘A pill for work and play‘)

WORTH READING

Spiegel Magazine on Saturday published what may be the most comprehensive short-form look at the origins of Daesh date, making the claim that its leadership have little to no actual apocalyptic belief, but have simply manipulated the faith of others, as have Islamists in all their various guises. “Attempts to explain IS and its rapid rise to power vary depending on who is doing the explaining. Terrorism experts view IS as an al-Qaida offshoot and attribute the absence of spectacular attacks to date to what they view as a lack of organizational capacity. Criminologists see IS as a mafia-like holding company out to maximize profit. Scholars in the humanities point to the apocalyptic statements by the IS media department, its glorification of death and the belief that Islamic State is involved in a holy mission. But apocalyptic visions alone are not enough to capture cities and take over countries … There is essentially nothing religious in its actions, its strategic planning, its unscrupulous changing of alliances and its precisely implemented propaganda narratives. Faith, even in its most extreme form, is just one of many means to an end. Islamic State’s only constant maxim is the expansion of power at any price.” (Read The Terror Strategist: Secret Files Reveal the Structure of Islamic State)

Borrowing a page from the Choose-Your-Own-Adventure book series, Clickhole has an entertaining Choose-Your-Own-Congressional Adventure, where readers attempt to pass legislation in the U.S. Congress, making moral compromises along the way. (Click here to play)

ENERGY, RENEWABLE ENERGY & SUBSIDY REFORM

Factories’ electricity woes should come to an end, shortly –Abdelnour
Al Borsa | 19 April 2015
Minister of Trade and Industry Mounir Abdelnour predicts that the energy crisis, which has plagued factories around the country in recent years, will come to an in end in the coming weeks. The arrival of gas imports and the commencement of operations at several electricity plants should allow the government to overcome the energy shortfall, explained the minister. (Read in Arabic)

OIL & GAS

Prices of the Gazprom LNG shipments will be revised every two years
Al Masry Al Youm | 19 April 2015
The prices of LNG shipments from Gazprom will be revised every two years, a source at the Ministry of Petroleum told Al Masry Al Youm. The unnamed source said the ministry had already set the prices for 14 cargoes out the 35 contracted. The price of the shipments was not made public due to “considerations taken by both parties” the source said. (Read in Arabic)

WDM tax royalty agreement does not mean giving up gas reserves –Oil minister
Al Ahram | 19 April 2015
The North Alexandria WDM agreement that was shifted from a Production Sharing Agreement to a tax royalty one does not mean Egypt is giving up its natural gas reserves in the Area, minister Sherif Ismail said. He added that the agreement treats the IOCs as service contractors who bear all of the cost and the project’s risk. Ismail defended the agreement expecting it to be a blueprint for new contracts internationally. (Read in Arabic)

Tripartite summit in Nicosia to discuss energy cooperation “soon”
Al Mal | 17 April 2015
A tripartite summit with Egypt, Cyprus, and Greece will be held in the Cypriot capital Nicosia “soon,” said the Greek President Alexis Tsipras. The summit will discuss international cooperation in energy and to promote regional stability. Tsipras added that Greece continues its unwavering support to Cyprus’ effort to search for oil and gas off its coast, despite Turkey’s protests. The summit will be a follow-up from last November’s meeting in Cairo. (Read in Arabic)

BASIC MATERIALS & COMMODITIES

Minister of Trade imposes import tariffs on sugar imports
Youm7 | 19 April 2015
Minister of Trade Mounir Fakhry Abdel Nour imposed a 20% import tariff on white sugar for 200 days, with a minimum EGP 700 per ton. The decision, according to the ministry’s statement published on Youm7, is intended to protect Egypt’s national economic production from negative impact of international trade on domestic production. The decision was filed to the World Trade Organization last Thursday. (Read in Arabic)

Export ban on rock phosphate considered
Al Ahram | 19 April 2015
Moratorium on rock phosphate exports is being considered currently, the Minister of Petroleum, Sherif Ismail, said. Producers will be given a three years’ notice period to abide by the ministry’s standards. Ismail said that a new authority regulating the sale of phosphate will be formed in the ministry. (Read in Arabic)

GASC agrees deals for 300,000 tons of wheat
Al Borsa | 19 April 2015
The General Authority of Supply Commodities, part of the Ministry of Supply, has agreed to import 300,000 tons of foreign wheat starting from 5 June. The wheat will reportedly be used by government-owned bakeries to produce subsidized bread. The order comprises 180,000 tons of French wheat, 60,000 tons Russian wheat, and 60,000 tons of Romanian wheat. The average cost of the shipment is USD 221.39 per ton of wheat. (Read in Arabic)

MANUFACTURING

Gov’t to impose 3-year, 8% import tariff on steel rebar starting 2 May -trade ministry
Reuters | 19 April 2015
Egypt will impose an eight percent import tariff on rebar (reinforced steel bars) for three years, the trade ministry said on Sunday, as reported by Reuters. Egypt’s steelmakers petitioned the government to impose anti-dumping measures on imports from China, Ukraine and Turkey after energy subsidies were cut last summer. (Read)

Ezz Steel workers stage strike
Youm7 | 19 April 2015
Workers at Ezz Steel organized a strike to protest management’s decision to pay only four months’ worth of annual profit returns to workers. In a statement to Youm7, a worker said that management agreed to pay 5 months of annual profit returns, but workers were surprised to learn that management announced to pay only 4 months. Workers insist that strikes won’t come to a halt unless Ezz Steel management releases an official statement that pays the remaining month for workers. Shares of Ezz Steel fell 4.89% at the close of trading on Sunday. (Read in Arabic)

HEALTHCARE

Ministry of Health: Sovaldi prices expected to fall
Al Masry Al Youm | 18 April 2015
The spokesman for the Ministry of Health, Hossam Abdel Ghaffar revealed that the price of the Hepatitis C drug Sovaldi is expected to decrease. During a phone interview on CBC’s “Ghorfat Al Akhbar”, Abdel Ghaffar added that several local drug companies applied for the patent, and that there is currently 17 companies that obtained it already and are in the final stages of production. He sees that this increase in the number of producer will automatically push the prices down. (Read in Arabic)

REAL ESTATE & HOUSING

Minister of Housing: Private sector developers to play important role in new administrative capital
Al Borsa | 19 April 2015
Egypt’s Ministry of Housing and Emirati developer, Eagle Hills, plan to establish a joint venture to spearhead the development of the administrative capital, said Hisham Madbouly, the Minister of Housing. Despite the fact that the joint-venture company will play a leading role in the administrative capital’s development, other developers will be given the opportunity to play a substantial role in the project, explained the minister. The minister reiterated this point by stating that “Cairo Capital will not be a monopoly.” (Read in Arabic)

BANKING & FINANCE

HSBC Egypt launches EGP 300 mn SME fund
Daily News Egypt | 19 April 2015
HSBC Egypt announced the launching of an EGP 300 mn fund to finance “Egypt’s international and internationally aspirant” SMEs. “The Fund is open to new and existing importing and exporting customers in Egypt,” HSBC said in a statement reported by DNE. The bank had already launched its first growth fund that allocated EGP 300 mn to pharmaceuticals businesses mainly in 2014. (Read)

OTHER BUSINESS NEWS OF NOTE

Deir Mawas water treatment plant inaugurated
Al Borsa | 19 April 2015
The Minister of Housing, Moustafa Madbouli, inaugurated the Deir Mawas water treatment plant. The plant has a daily capacity of 51 thousand cubic feet and cost EGP 295 mn to develop. The water treatment plant will serve 260 thousand people in the area across 31 villages. Madbouli said the plant will increased the per capita share of potable water to 210 liters a day from 80 liters currently. (Read in Arabic)

EGYPT POLITICS + ECONOMICS

Laws accommodating Suez Canal zone pending –Hani Sarie El Din
Al Borsa | 19 April 2015
The legal advisor to the Suez Canal Zone Development Project (SCZone), Hani Sarie El Din, said he awaits the cabinet’s passing of law creating the authority which will oversee the project. Despite continuous meetings with potential investors, Sarei El Din says the pending law will be the real trigger for investment. The first phase of SCZone is set to be connected with the Capital Cairo project. (Read in Arabic)

Mahlab allocates land to Nubian villages
Al Mal | 19 April 2015
Prime Minister Ibrahim Mahlab has issued a decree granting 4094.84 acres of state land to the Governorate of Aswan. The governorate will then distribute the land to Nubian villages, which are expected to use the land for agricultural and reclamation purposes, added the source. (Read in Arabic)

ON YOUR WAY OUT

Verdicts in the trial of 31 people accused of the 2013 murder of Egyptian Shia leader Hassan Shehata are expected on 13 June. Shehata and three others were murdered by a mob in Giza, alleged members of which now face charges of first degree murder, among others. The 14th district of Giza Criminal Court, headed by Judge Moataz Khafagy, is hearing the case, according to Youm7.

“Government and Developer: Partnership for Development” conference on Sunday: Over 400 executives from major real estate developers and financing institutions attended the “Government and Developer: Partnership for Development” conference, under the auspices of the Ministry of Housing, NUCA, and other government bodies. (Read)

Forbes’ Adam Ozimek engages in some Game of Thrones economics to analyse why Westeros doesn’t have a central bank. “I would argue this question comes down to a lack of the right institutions, and the difficulty of creating these institution in such a world,” Ozimek says before going on to explain why the only institution there that could serve as a central bank is the Night’s Watch.

BY THE NUMBERS

USD CBE auction (Sunday, 19 April): 7.5301 (unchanged since Monday, 02 Feb)
USD parallel market (Sunday, 19 April): 7.65 (unchanged from Wednesday, 15 April)

EGX30 (Sunday): 8,765.34 (-1.37%)
Turnover: EGP 385.5 mn (31% below the 90-day average)

WTI: USD 56.52 (+1.40%)
Brent: USD 64.25 (+1.26%)

TASI: 9,620.0 (+4.0%)
ADX: 4,623.2 (-0.7%)
DFM: 4,021.5 (-1.4%)
KSE Weighted Index: 437.3 (+0.6%)
QE: 11,893.0 (-0.7%)
MSM: 6,290.2 (+0.3%)

 

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