Sunday, 4 January 2015

Investment law leaked • Telecom Egypt to become fourth mobile operator • Kellogg wins BiscoMisr • EGX was top-performing bourse globally in 2014 • 20 Egyptians kidnapped in Libya • AJE journalists’ appeal gets green-light • IOCs get USD 2.1 bn from EGPC

WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

Kellogg has won the bidding war for BiscoMisr after Abraaj announced it would not again raise its bid. That leftKellogg’s EGP 89.86 per share offer the highest outstanding bid to acquire Bisco Misr in a transaction that should be worth USD 144 mn. The story has won wide international attention, with examples here in the Wall Street Journal and Bloomberg.

Notable highlights from a classy New Year’s Eve press release bowing out of the bidding: “Abraaj believes that the fair, orderly and transparent bid process for BiscoMisr clearly validates the growing investor interest in Egypt. Abraaj is positive on the long-term prospects of the consumer sector specifically, and the investment opportunities in general, in Egypt. We expect to see significant investment activity in the country over the coming months given Egypt’s attractive underlying growth potential and its recent positive economic traction.”

Egypt’s Balance of Payments recorded a surplus of USD 410 mn in 3Q14 (an 89.1% y-o-y drop from 3Q13’s USD 3.75 bn), according to the Central Bank of Egypt with the current account dropping USD 2.05 bn from 3Q13 to a deficit of USD 1.44 bn. For more on this story, check our special Spotlight before On Your Way Out.

WHAT WE’RE TRACKING THIS WEEK

Markit / HSBC PMI reports for Egypt, the UAE and Saudi Arabia will be released early morning on Tuesday, 6 January.

WHAT WE’RE TRACKING THIS MONTH

The ENI-KOGAS consortium exploring offshore gas in Cyprus’ EEZ will begin exploratory drilling in the Amathusa field sometime in the first half of this month. (Read)

LAST NIGHT’S TALK SHOWS

Amr Adeeb had some strong words for what he perceives as a lack of preparation for the March investment summit, which he noted is only 75 days away. Adeeb (paraphrasing): “I’ve been talking about this since June – where’s the logo? Where are the advertisements in the international financial media? What’s the schedule? Are there are any prominent speakers? Also, please no more scandals, from now until March. Someone in the government needs to issue an official denial of Amal Clooney’s claims that she is under threat of arrest if she ever visits Egypt [more on that in Egypt in the News below] and clarify that she is welcome to visit anytime … Wherever I go in the world, all I hear about is the [imprisoned] Al Jazeera journalists.”

Adeeb spent the latter half of his program hosting Dr. Samir Manoub, a health consultant for international organizations, where the two discussed potential points of reform to Egypt’s health insurance sector. Dr. Manoub advocated two broad reforms: the creation of a Health Council composed of relevant ministries including the Ministry of Health as well as the Ministry of Finance, to be headed by either the President or the Prime Minister. Secondly, he stated that if all Egyptians who can afford to do so participated in a system whereby 10% of personal income was allocated toward a national health insurance fund, everyone in Egypt could enjoy a high-level of quality care.

ONTV: Ibrahim Eissa was AWOL and Youssef El Hosseiny hosted the Minister of Youth and Sports, so it was as if he was not on-air.

Lamees El Hadeedy hosted her go-to psychiatrist, who will continue to go unnamed as this reviewer has no idea what his name is. He was once again invited to opine on his take on the national psyche, although it was difficult to ascertain if the episode was live, a re-run or simply an imagined fever-dream on the part of this reviewer. The following is a broad indication of the quality of the discussion. All-purpose psychiatrist: “Even death in Egypt is fun. We make it into a big thing with lots of food.”

[Editorial note: This is true; this reviewer can attest to being harangued on numerous occasions by family for missing “the best funeral ever.”]

SPEED ROUND

Al Ahram published a draft copy of the new unified investment law. The new law will call for the establishment of an investment promotion authority to help promote and market investment opportunities in Egypt as well as a one-stop-shop responsible for issuing business licenses and regulatory permits. The aim is to reduce the processing time to about 15 days. Our read: This is a bid to make GAFI more efficient by splitting its functions. A package of tax breaks is also proposed, with special incentives to labor intensive businesses, investments in remote areas, export-oriented businesses, and companies utilizing inputs sourced domestically. Significantly, profit repatriation will be legally protected under the new law.

Telecom Egypt announced on New Year’s Eve that it had agreed to pay a license fee of EGP 2.5 bn to become Egypt’s fourth mobile phone operator and delayed announcing its pick for the investment bank that will be tasked with valuing its subsidiaries to the end of this week. Chief among the valuations: It stake in Vodafone Egypt.

EGX was the top-performing exchange globally of 2014, factoring in both share price gains and dividends, reports theFT, while Reuters also notes Egypt’s performance in its annual Middle East market roundup.

The EGX listed Egypt’s first exchange-traded fund, also on New Year’s Eve, with an initial size of EGP 10 mn. The ETF will track the EGX30. (Read in Arabic) (Related: On Bloomberg View, Noah Smith touts the importance of ETFs as a superior investment vehicle but laments the fact that stock picking is still alive and well)

The appeal of the three detained Al Jazeera English journalists has been accepted and a retrial will commence sometime this month, although no bail was given. (Read in BBC and note the very polished Al Jazeera advertisement regarding the case in the middle of the article — at least the version we’re served when we visit the page.)

20 Coptic Egyptians kidnapped in Libya: According to Libyan military sources, Islamist extremists abducted 13 Coptic Egyptian workers yesterday, with the same sources claiming that seven were abducted last week. All kidnappings happened at the victims’ residential complex. Voice of America puts the total number of abductees at 20. Omar El Koueri, Minister of information and culture, declared that the attack was at the hands of the international arm of the Muslim Brotherhood, which he pegged as sponsor of all violence by Islamist extremists and their militias in Libya. He also added that the city of Sirte has been out of the Libyan military’s control for the past two years, as the Brotherhood marginalized the army there when they were in power. Egyptian Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesman Amb. Badr Abdelaty said Egypt is in talks with Libyan tribal leaders in a bid to win the freedom of the kidnapped Egyptians. He also said that the government is examining the possibility of prohibiting Egyptians from travelling to Libya and added that sending diplomatic emissaries is out of the question as there are still many parts of Libya that are controlled by militants. (Read in Arabic in Al-Masry Al-Youm or Al Borsa, and in English inAhram Online and Voice of America)

Something rotten in Rabat? Last Thursday, Morocco’s state-owned Channel One inexplicably broadcast a report denouncing President Abdel Fattah El Sisi and the ousting of Morsi. According to Mada Masr, which has one of the more complete takes on the bizarre turn of events, “Moroccan Ambassador to Egypt Mohamed Al-Eleimy blamed an ‘unknown entity’ for trying to strain Egypt-Morocco relations through the broadcast, according to the privately owned newspaper Youm7.” It is interesting that an ‘unknown entity’ can seize Moroccan state television at whim to broadcast anti-Egyptian propaganda. Mada Masr notes: “Some commentators have attributed the ongoing media spat to Morocco’s ruling Islamist government, while other analysts in Egypt have blamed the Muslim Brotherhood for orchestrating the hostilities.” Middle East Eye suggests that Western Sahara may be at the heart of the row.

Egypt will repay USD 700 mn in January as part of its agreement with the Paris Club debtors. (Read in Arabic)

In a speech marking the Prophet Muhammad’s Birthday yesterday, President Abdel Fattah El Sisi called for a “revolution in religious discourse” ahead of a conference on the subject due to take place in Cairo next month.

The Salafist Nour Party is out of money and has said that its candidates for parliamentary elections will have to fund their own campaigns. (Read in Ahram Online)

The head of GAFI told Amwal Al Ghad foreign direct investment in Egypt reached USD 2.34 bn in 2014 (down from USD 4.19 bn in 2013).

Bank of Alexandria denied reports about an intention to divest its EGP 650 mn contribution to an EGP 4 bn loan to Vodafone Egypt, according to Al Mal.

State-owned utility Saudi Electricity Co’s CEO was quoted as saying in a statement released on 30 December that “a new high voltage direct current facility in Tabuk, expected to cost 4.5 billion riyals, would be commissioned in 2018 to boost electricity transmission in the country’s western region and later to Egypt.” (Read in Reuters)

The US dollar has hit an 11-year high against its top rivals, reports the Wall Street Journal, with investor betting the greenback will gain in strength as the US economy “will pull ahead of the rest of the world this year, with the Federal Reserve in the driver’s seat.” That expectation, the paper warns, could be tempered by drags on the US and global economies presented by weakness in China, Europe and Japan.

U.S. State Department spokesperson Jeff Rathke said on Tuesday 30 December that the United States supports Noble Energy’s attempts to develop Israel’s offshore gas fields, noting that U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry has discussed the issue with Israeli Prime Minister Bejamin Netanyahu. (Read in Reuters)

“Oil producers and traders alike are desperately looking for a sign that the current oil price slide is about to bottom out,” writes Amy Myers Jaffe, Executive Director for Energy and Sustainability at the University of California, for The Energy Collective inReading the Tea Leaves of the Saudi 2015 Budget. “Famously, in 1998, the last time Saudi Arabia embarked on an earnest price war to defend its market share in the face of the Asian financial crisis, the kingdom ran budget deficits for over two years while it waited for other oil producers to blink first.” (Read)

China’s official Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) slipped to 50.1 in December from November’s 50.3 as reported last Thursday. (Read in The NYT)

MOVES: Emaar Properties named Amit Jain as its new CEO (Read in Bloomberg)

2014 RETROSPECTIVES

Key Egyptian economic decrees [and ministerial decisions] in 2014 as compiled by Daily News Egypt.

Global new wrap-up: Wall Street Journal.

Edward Conard, formerly of Bain Capital, provides a roundup of economic studies published in 2014 that undermine popular assumptions regarding income inequality and immigration labor in the United States. (Read)

2015 PREDICTIONS

Solar power to shine through in the Middle East in 2015 (Read in the UAE’s The National)

While US-centric, Vox’s predictions for 2015 are noteworthy for #9) Greece won’t leave the eurozone:“Journalistically, a “Grexit” is certainly the most interesting outcome, so people talk a lot about it, and at this point there are a lot of plausible theories about how it could go. But I think it’s not going to happen. The forces of the status quo will rally, and another grand coalition will lead Greece through several more dreary years of austerity and slow growth.” (Read)

Turkish writer Mustafa Akyol outlines the top three themes for Turkey’s political scene in 2015 and his predictions regarding their outcome. He identifies the top three conflicts will be shaped around:

  • The ongoing purge/crackdown of the Gulenist movement
  • Parliamentary elections which could see the ruling AKP win a supermajority, paving the way for major constitutional amendments or a new constitution altogether
  • The ongoing peace process between the government and the Kurdish minority

(Read in Hurriyet Daily News)

In “What the World Will Speak in 2115,” the Wall Street Journal predicts that “a century from now, expect fewer but simpler languages on every continent.”

WORTH READING

Short read: Interview with World Bank Chief Economist for the Middle East and North Africa Region Shantayanan Devarajan on the Egyptian government’s economic reforms in preparation for the March investment summit. It’s a shorter interview but Devarajan gets to the point and doesn’t mince words. While the interview originally ran in Al Ahram Weekly, we’re linking to Zawya’s coverage as Al Ahram Weekly’s website appears to be down at the time of writing. (Read in Zawya)

#longread: The  the US Army War College’s Strategic Studies Institute has put out a 72-page report on the role the United States can play to diplomatically and militarily support its allies in the development of Eastern Mediterranean gas discoveries. Interestingly, the report notes: “a Cypriot LNG terminal as currently planned does not require a benevolent Turkish stance toward Cypriot exports, nor a comprehensive peace agreement between the Cypriot communities.” (Your browser may notify you of an expired security certificate when following the link, but the link is valid. Download the pdf here)

WORTH WATCHING

Germany’s DW examines [first name unpronounceable] Erdogan’s ambitions to change Turkey into a presidential system, with 2015 shaping up to be the year he consolidates his grip. Running time: 2:36. (Watch)

DIPLOMACY

El-Sisi’s visit to Kuwait will not include meetings with Qatari dignitaries: President Abdel Fattah El Sisi’s visit to Kuwait is to solidify political, economic, and social ties between the two countries, according to the presidential spokesperson, who confirmed that no meetings with Qatari emissaries were on the schedule. (Read in Arabic)

EGYPT IN THE NEWS

Far and away, the most ink / pixels in international coverage of Egypt is the claim that Egypt told human rights lawyer Amal Clooney “that she risked arrest after identifying the same serious flaws in its judicial system that subsequently contributed to the conviction of three Al-Jazeera journalists now jailed in Cairo.” The story, first broken by the Guardian has made headlines around the world, ranging from “Amal Clooney Claims Egyptian Official Threatened Her with Arrest” (Peoplemagazine) to “Amal Clooney threatened with prison in Egypt” (The West Australian)

David Butter, previously the regional director for the Middle East at the Economist Intelligence Unit and currently an Associate Fellow of Chatham House, has a 4-page piece ostensibly on the return of Gulf investment in North Africa but which is almost exclusively focused on Egypt. “Since Mahlab [sic], a construction executive with Gulf experience, was appointed prime minister in March 2014, Egypt has done a lot to prepare the ground for Gulf investors. It has drawn up project proposals, taking the first serious steps in reforming energy subsidies, and it has resolved a number of disputes with Gulf investors about the commercial terms of existing projects.” (Read)

The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Middle East scholars gathered to talk about what to look ahead for in 2015. The review is partly by geography, partly thematic, with Michele Dunne handling Egypt in “Egypt’s economy and security in 2015.”

As noted above in the Speed Round, Morocco has been sending mixed signals since last Thursday regarding Egypt, with the Moroccan state media broadcasting negative messages against the Egyptian government. For the Moroccan media’s perspective on just what exactly is going on in Morocco with regard to Egypt, it seems that at least one Moroccan journalist is a little baffled, though he makes an attempt anyway to explain, and by explain of course, he means to allocate the blame on Egypt. He cites Egyptian journalist Amany al-Khayat’s comments describing the Moroccan economy as being built upon prostitution, and a more recent Egyptian media report describing Morocco as a land of sorcery. (Read in Morocco World News)

Telling (all) hard truths is currently the third most-commented on article on The Economist, but more for the debate currently raging in its comments about secularism and religion than for the article’s focus on Egypt in general and the split between pro- and anti-Ikhwan Muslims and Egyptians in the West, referencing an earlier article published by H.A. Hellyer. (Read)

This morning’s edition of Turkey’s Zaman contains recaps the alleged attempts within Turkey to try to normalize relations with Egypt and how these attempts have been torpedoed by Erdogan: “‘It appears that there are two leaders in Turkey with two different ideas regarding policies towards Egypt,’ one Arab diplomat told Sunday’s Zaman.” (Read)

ENERGY, RENEWABLE ENERGY & SUBSIDY REFORM

Archer Capital to build five new solar power plants
Al Borsa | 30 Dec 2014
Archer Capital plans to build five solar power plants with a combined 24 megawatt capacity in Upper Egypt at a cost of EGP 320 mn, said Archer Consulting president Mohamed Nader. Work is expected to start within three months after all necessary regulatory approvals are obtained, said Nader. (Read in Arabic)

OIL & GAS

EGPC repays USD 2.1 bn of debt to IOCs
Reuters | 31 Dec 2014
Egypt has repaid USD 2.1 bn in debts owed to international oil companies operating in Egypt. This leaves USD 3.1 bn still owed to the companies. The payment follows USD 1.5 bn paid in December 2013, and USD 1.4 bn in October 2014. (Read)

BG receives USD 350 mn payment from EGPC
Reuters | 02 Jan 2015
BG Group announced it received USD 350 mn in outstanding debt from the Egyptian government. This reduced BG’s outstanding receivables to USD 920 mn but the company continues to investigate options to increase gas production in Egypt. EGPC had announced the repayment of USD 2.1 bn of its debt to IOCs. (Read)

Importing natural gas from Algeria for the next five years being considered
Al Mal | 30 Dec 2014
EGAS and Sonatrach are negotiating a deal to import natural gas from Algeria over the next five years. Oil Minister Sherif Ismail said EGAS was reviewing the financial details to issue a tender for importing 48 LNG shipments annually. This follows a signed deal to import a total of 850,000 cubic meters of gas over six shipments. Also being negotiated is the possibility of establishing a joint exploration and production company, including cooperation in shale gas production, along with having Algerian crude refined in Egypt. (Read in Arabic)

BASIC MATERIALS & COMMODITIES

Al Othaim mulls building supermarkets in Egypt
Al Mal, Amwal Al Ghad | 03 Jan 2015
Saudi Arabia’s Al Othaim Holding offered to build supermarkets and other retail centres as part of Egypt’s Ministry of Supplies to expand retail space domestically. Al Othaim’s officials expressed their interest in entering the Egyptian market and in being involved with the government’s project to create a domestic logistics and grain storage hub. (Read in Arabic in Al Mal or Amwal Al Ghad)

MANUFACTURING

Steel companies cut prices to EGP 120 and EGP 150 per ton
Al Borsa | 03 Jan 2015
Various steel companies announced lower prices in January, ranging between EGP 120 and EGP 150 per ton. Prices sold to consumers range from EGP 4900 to EGP 5000 per ton. Ahmed al-Zeiny, President of the construction materials division of the Egyptian Federation Chambers of Commerce, said that steel companies should have lowered prices since last December, but instead gained billions at the expense of consumers. (Read in Arabic)

TOURISM

Taba International Airport to be developed using a EUR 7.15 mn loan
Daily News Egypt | 29 Dec 2014
France will lend Egypt EUR 7.15 mn to replace the navigation systems at the Taba International Airport. The deal, signed by the Minister of International Cooperation and the French Ambassador to Cairo, has a 20-year tenor, a grace period of six years and carries 0.17% interest. (Read)

TELECOMS

Mobile companies focused on investments to expand networks in 2015
Shorouk | 03 Jan 2015
Mobinil intends to invest EGP 2.5 bln to improve and expand network capabilities, while updating data transfers such in the wake of increased demand for the service. Similarly, Vodafone Egypt seeks a 50 percent increase in infrastructure investment during 2015, with investments reaching up to EGP 9.5 bln. This is part of a three-year investment plan for the three largest cell phone companies in Egypt (Vodafone Egypt, Mobinil, and Etisalat) to expand and improve its infrastructure. Investments are likely to range between EGP 34 bln and EGP 38 bln during the three-year period, according to the Minister of Communications and Information Technology. (Read in Arabic)

BANKING & FINANCE

Microfinancing institutions exempt from 0.2% levy
Al Shorouk | 03 Jan 2015
Microfinancing deals will be exempted from a 0.2% levy imposed, according to the head of EFSA. This applies to institutions licensed and allowed to provide microfinancing in accordance with the law passed in November 2014. (Read in Arabic)

TRANSPORTATION

Chinese public companies to begin high-speed rail projects in Egypt
Al Borsa | 29 Dec 2014
An agreement was reached with Chinese public companies to assess, and potentially execute, building a high-speed railway system connecting Alexandria, Cairo, and Upper Egypt, according to the Minister of Transport. The initial stage of the project connects Alexandria and Cairo and will be conducted on a BOT basis. With a projected cost of USD 3 bn, the funding will be provided by a 20-year loan. The loan will include a five-year grace period, with the deal yet to finalize as the Egyptian government continues to seek better loan. Egypt’s Ministry of Transport also seeks Chinese assistance in building tram networks for satellite cities on the outskirts of Cairo. (Read in Arabic)

OTHER BUSINESS NEWS OF NOTE

PepsiCo to continue investing in Egypt, divestiture reports denied
Al Borsa | 29 Dec 2014
PepsiCo denied reports it is considering closing down any of its plants in Egypt. The company noted that its level of operations were consistent with its production plans, which are designed to be responsive to local market needs. Regarding a dispute at its Sohag plant, PepsiCo assured that it respects and abides by all Egyptian laws stressing its adherence to maintaining workers’ rights. (Read in Arabic)

EGYPT POLITICS + ECONOMICS

Egypt cautiously steps into Syria and Libya morass
Ahram Online | 31 Dec 2014
According to Dina Ezzat, Ahram Online’s well-sourced journalist covering the diplomatic beat, “informed” sources say that Syrian opposition figures may be meeting in Cairo in the early weeks of 2015. Readers will note that President Abdel Fattah El Sisi’s comments in the second part of his recent interview with Egyptian state media alluded to the possibility of Egyptian mediation in the Syrian civil war. Ezzat’s source said that the opposition leaders will seek during their meeting in Cairo to “agree amongst themselves with the help of Egyptian mediation” on a set of rules for “what should be a political position of the Syrian opposition that could be offered in any possible talks with the Syrian regime … The dates are still flexible and the positions are equally flexible, but what I can say with a considerable deal of certainty is that there is a growing realization within the Syrian opposition (and I am here specifically not talking about the armed groups) that demanding the immediate departure of Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad, as a prerequisite to any political settlement, has become unrealistic given the considerable control the forces of Bashar exercise on the ground,” said one Egyptian source. (Read)

SPOTLIGHT ON EGYPT’S BoP

There are two primary stories here:

  • GCC financial support to Egypt dropping
  • Foreigners’ portfolio investments reduced

As financial support from the GCC tapered, net official transfers decreased to USD 1.48 bn in 3Q14 from USD 4.33 bn a year earlier and was only partly made up for by a USD 671.8 mn increase in remittances. A flight to safety away from Egyptian treasuries pulled net portfolio investments down USD 951.7 mn to USD 316.0 mn in 3Q14, with foreigners’ bond holdings plunging to just over USD 13 mn compared to USD 959.0 a year earlier – as we reported aboutBloomberg noting that non-Egyptian holdings of T-bills falling to under 0.2% from 20% in 2010.

Two positive takeaways:

  • Oil and gas FDI rebounds
  • Tourism resurrected (for now)

FDI increased to USD 1.77 bn in 3Q14 from USD 745.4 mn a year earlier as investments in the oil and gas sector rebounded with EGPC accelerating the payment of overdue funds to IOCs and opening up new possibilities for investing (with potential for shale gas exploration opening up as well). Similarly, tourist nights increased by 71.1% y-o-y in 3Q14 to 26.1 million nights driving up revenues to USD 2.1 bn (from USD 931.1 mn). However, the potential for a continued improvement in earnings in 4Q14 going on to 1H15 took a big hit as Russia, the largest source of tourist nights in Egypt, faces an economic crises that saw the value of the Ruble fall by over 75% in 2014.

Two main concerns going forward:

  • The country’s ability to maintain a sustainable fiscal position without GCC support and with very little foreign funding
  • How will the tourism sector mitigate the effects of the economic crisis in Russia

ON YOUR WAY OUT

Oman delayed the announcement of its 2015 budget to an unspecified future date. (Read in Arabic)

Telecom Egypt is to provide broadband services to 11 ministries and governmental institutions. (Read in Arabic)

Non-oil manufacturing grew 6.32% y-o-y in 2014, according to CAPMAS. (Read in Arabic)

Mohab Mamish has been reappointed as the head of the Suez Canal Authority for another year. (Read in Arabic)

Islamist group Hamas condemns alleged Egyptian shooting of Gazan minor on the border on Saturday. (Read in Ahram Online)

An RPG attack on a security checkpoint in North Sinai on Friday 2 January did not result in any casualties, according to state news agency MENA as reported by Ahram Online. (Read)

BY THE NUMBERS

USD (CBE auction): 7.1401 (unchanged)
USD (parallel market): 7.80 (unchanged)

EGX30 (Thursday): Market closed.
Turnover: N/A

WTI: USD 52.69 (-1.09%)
Brent: USD 56.42 (-1.59%)

TASI: 8,409 (+0.9%)
ADX: Market closed.
DFM: Market closed.
KSE: Market closed.
QE: Market closed.
MSM: 6,353 (+0.2%)

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