Monday, 14 February 2022

PM — The ins and outs of Russia v Ukraine

TL;DR

???? WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TONIGHT

Happy Valentine’s Day, ladies and gentlemen. The news cycle is still taking a breather this afternoon, but we expect this is the calm before some sort of storm.

THE BIG STORIES TODAY SO FAR-

#1- Importers need letters of credit to buy goods starting March: Banks have begun informing importers of a Central Bank of Egypt decision taken over the weekend that will restrict an importer’s bank to only using letters of credit to facilitate the purchase imports starting from March. Invoices from exporters will no longer be accepted by banks to transfer over purchases once the decision comes into effect next month.

#2- The Unified Budget Act is now the law of the land, after President Abdel Fattah El Sisi ratified the legislation, according to a decree published in the Official Gazette (pdf).

HAPPENING NOW-

The Egypt Petroleum Show (Egyps) is underway, after President Abel Fattah El Sisi inaugurated the event this morning at the Egypt International Exhibition Center. The event runs through Wednesday.

El Sisi capitalized on the energy event to stress the importance of prioritizing supporting Africa’s green transition at COP27 in Sharm El Sheikh this November, according to Bloomberg. International Cooperation Minister Rania Al Mashat has said that COP27 is a chance to emphasize that emerging markets need financial support to meet climate commitments, and to bring innovative financing such as concessional lending.

ALSO: Egypt is now officially a member of the International Energy Agency (IEA), Executive Director Fatih Birol said at Egyps, according to CNBC. Birol praised Egypt’s recent energy developments, particularly capitalizing on its natural gas assets and growing its solar industry.

… but more oil production is necessary to ease price rises: Birol called on OPEC+ members to increase oil production to balance markets, as oil prices continue to jump, reaching a seven-year high today. Birol also criticized the “politicization” of European gas markets.

** CATCH UP QUICK on the top stories from today’s EnterpriseAM:

  • Rising tensions in the tug-of-war between Russia and Ukraine are causing “uncertainty” in the wheat market, and could lead Egypt to start hedging wheat, Supply Minister Ali El Moselhy said.
  • Minimum paternity leave in Labor Act draws critics: The Senate approved an article in the draft Labor Act that would give new fathers one day of paternity leave for the day of birth, after it had earlier struck down the initial proposal to allow them seven days of leave. Employers can expand the minimum requirement on a case by case basis
  • How higher inflation is affecting our private schools: With inflation running close to two-and-a-half-year highs, spending is being impacted across private and international schools, with rising capex costs putting particular pressure on companies in the sector.

THE BIG STORY ABROAD- The global business press is broadly leading with the economic fallout from the Ukraine crisis, as equities, stock futures, and bond yields across the world fell on concerns of an imminent armed conflict. Futures for the S&P 500, Nasdaq-100, and Dow Jones all slipped today, while bourses in France, Germany, the UK, Japan, and China are all in the red as of dispatch. (Financial Times | Wall Street Journal | Bloomberg | CNBC)

Are you unsure of where this whole crisis started, but have been scared to ask? We’ve got you covered in today’s Enterprise Explains, below.

FOR TOMORROW- The Industrial Development Authority will receive offers from companies for licenses to manufacture iron products tomorrow.

Orange Ventures’ deadline to receive applications from seed-stage fintech startups for its seed challenge is also tomorrow.

???? CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

It’s day two of the three-day Arab sustainable development week. Some 400 participants including the EU, World Bank and other institutions are chewing over how to tackle in a sustainable way the development challenges of the Arab world.

Public universities begin the second term of their 2021-2022 academic year this Saturday, 19 February.

The Nebu Expo for Gold and Jewelry 2022 kicks off this Saturday, 19 February and wraps on Monday, 21 February.

Check out our full calendar on the web for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events, national holidays and news triggers.

☀️ TOMORROW’S WEATHER- The mercury is finally moving above the 20°C mark: Tomorrow will see a daytime high of 21°C and a nighttime low of 8°C, our favorite weather app tells us.

???? FOR YOUR COMMUTE

Cyber attacks are becoming so frequent that ins. costs are soaring, as the ins. industry is under growing pressure to help bail out corporates facing ransomware attacks and other forms of cyber crime, according to the Financial Times. The cost of cyber ins. coverage for companies rose 130% y-o-y in the US and 92% y-o-y in the UK during the last quarter of 2021, as cyber criminality became a “real problem in the corporate world through are reacting to that and working out how to underwrite it,” says Adrian Cox, CEO of London-based ins. provider Beazley. Some ins. players have decided to stop providing cyber coverage altogether, because of how much pressure the payouts have created for their balance sheets, ultimately leading to less ins. supply and driving up costs even more.

The antidote? Government intervention to counter cyberattacks, Cox suggests, warning that the growing prevalence of cyber criminality could lead to “unaffordable” ins. We also have a rundown of what you can prepare yourself and your business against phishing scams.


US business schools are dominating the Financial Times’ 2022 Global MBA ranking, with seven of the top 10 spots going to US universities, largely because their alumni are now raking in some of the highest annual salaries, according to the salmon-colored paper. Wharton and Columbia landed in the top two spots, while Harvard, Northwestern’s Kellogg School of Management, Stanford, and University of Chicago: Booth are also listed in the top 10. Wharton’s alumni reported the highest overall average annual income in 2021 at USD 238,000, which is higher than average salary for the alumni of the 100 schools ranked this year at USD 161,000.

Other schools in the top 10: Insead (France and Singapore), London Business School, and Iese Business School (Spain).

???? ENTERPRISE RECOMMENDS

???? ON THE TUBE TONIGHT-

(all times CLT)

The latest con artist show to hit the tube: Inventing Anna tells the story of a woman who convinced New York’s elite that she was a German heiress, playing the part so magnificently that she was able to live a life of luxury based on virtually nothing for years. The new Netflix limited series has made it to the top 10 charts here in Egypt this past week and has garnered positive reviews for its on-point cast that keep the audience hooked. Anna Delvey — born Anna Sorokin — spent her days oozing poise and grace, suggesting fancy wines for every meal and being the life of every party. It was this charisma that allowed her to scam everyone from defrauded banks, art collectors, and gallery owners to fashionistas and socialites out of USD hundreds of thousands. Journalist Vivian Kent was the one who finally sniffed her out and brought the story to light; the series also follows her story as she investigates the fancy con artist. Sorokin was then charged with various counts of larceny and other crimes, and in April 2019 found guilty of eight of them — but it was one hell of a ride till then, writes The Guardian.

We’re looking forward to a couple of matches today in the European leagues: Real Mallorca meets Athletic Bilbao in La Liga at 10pm, while Spezia and Fiorentina will compete today in Serie A at 9:45 pm.

In the Egyptian League: Misr Lel Makassa hosts El Gaish at 8pm, while the match between Al Ittihad and Eastern Company kicked off at 3pm and is still ongoing as we dispatch.

???? OUT AND ABOUT-

(all times CLT)

Celebrate Valentine’s Day tonight with a Salsa lesson by Soul Motion Studio. The one-hour class will begin at 7pm at Cairo Jazz Club 610. PS: You don’t need a partner to join in on the fun.

Or you could join a contemporary dance workshop (unrelated to V-day): The Dynamic Flow workshop is part of the Unuk Dance Collective and will take place today at 7pm at Dokki’s Cultograph.

Almashrabia Gallery is hosting solo exhibit Just A Dream by artist Shahira Shoukry.

???? UNDER THE LAMPLIGHT-

enterprise

Scalable ideas share a common set of attributes, argues John A. List in his new book, The Voltage Effect. Scaling is an essential requirement for the success of your business, but the startup world is still struggling to understand the “why” of some ideas skyrocketing while others fail. As an economist, List explores this phenomenon to outline the factors that go into the equation and how to use them to your advantage to create business models that can grow exponentially. These businesses need to achieve “high voltage” — or the ability to be replicated at scale, he argues. Drawing on research and examples from business, policy making, education, and public health, List creates a guidebook on the strategies that organizations must encompass and how to assess the vital signs that a scalable idea must possess.

???? GO WITH THE FLOW

EARNINGS WATCH- Abu Qir Fertilizers’ bottomline rose 137.7% y-o-y during 2Q2021-2022 to EGP 1.9 bn, according to the company’s financial statement (pdf). The company’s revenues recorded EGP 3.6 bn during the quarter, up 56.5% y-o-y.


MARKET ROUNDUP-

The EGX30 fell 0.3% at today’s close on turnover of EGP 663 mn (36.5% below the 90-day average). Regional investors were net buyers. The index is down 4.6% YTD.

In the green: Fawry (+2.8%), EFG Hermes (+2.5%) and Qalaa Holdings (+2.2%).

In the red: Madinet Nasr Housing (-4.3%), Orascom Development Egypt (-4.1%) and MM Group (-2.9%).

???? ENTERPRISE EXPLAINS

Enterprise Explains: The Russia-Ukraine crisis. Since the start of the year, hostilities between Russia and the West have escalated as Moscow amasses 130k troops on its border with Ukraine and Western capitals warn of an imminent invasion. Russia is demanding that Ukraine be barred from Nato membership while Western governments insist that Russian troops must pull back from the border. After weeks of shuttle diplomacy failed to ease tensions, the US is now claiming that Russia could attack Ukraine “any day now” and embassies are evacuating staff, raising fears that a major conflict may be about to break out in Europe with massive humanitarian consequences, as well as a huge impact on the global economy.

First thing’s first, this crisis is anything but new: To locate the real roots of the crisis we need to go back to the end of the Cold War, when Eastern European countries gained their independence following the dissolution of the Soviet Union. A verbal promise made by the US to the new Russian Federation that Nato wouldn’t expand eastwards was supposed to assuage Moscow’s security concerns and lay the foundations for post-Cold War security on the continent. This didn’t last very long. Within a year, Poland, Hungary, and Czechoslovakia had signaled their intent to join the military alliance and by 2004, it had swelled to include 10 countries that were formerly within the USSR’s sphere of influence.

Enter Ukraine: Ukraine has long aspired to become a Nato member, and in 2008 officially applied to join the alliance, much to Russia’s chagrin. Though its bid was rejected, Nato countries signaled that Kiev would eventually be admitted to the organization, which would give it the all-important Article 5 protection against Russian aggression. Moscow and the EU have also been playing tug of war for influence over the country, with Brussels trying to negotiate its entry into the bloc and Russia wielding its economic leverage to prevent it from doing so.

The spark: It was the breakdown in talks between Ukraine and the EU that set us on a direct path to the current conflict. Under pressure from Russia, in late 2013 then-Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych abruptly ended talks with the EU, spurring the mass protests that in 2014 led to the downfall of his administration and the creation of a new, pro-European government in Kiev. Russia responded by annexing the Crimean peninsula and sponsoring a separatist movement in the country’s eastern Donbas region, which sparked months of armed conflict between the Ukrainian military and Russian-backed militias.

A frozen conflict: The ceasefire agreement brokered by France and Germany in 2014 succeeded in ending direct clashes between the two sides but subsequent attempts to decide the future of the Donbas have made little progress and the conflict has remained frozen ever since. The roadmap laid out in follow-up talks in 2015, otherwise known as Minsk 2, is yet to be implemented and has failed to reconcile Ukraine and Russia’s competing demands: Ukraine wants full control over its territory, and Russia wants Kiev to devolve much of its powers to the self-proclaimed republics as well as write a neutrality clause into its constitution that would prevent it from joining Nato or the EU.

Renewed tensions: Since being elected in 2019, Ukraine’s comedian-cum-president Volodymyr Zelensky has taken an explicitly anti-Russian posture and has sought to accelerate the country’s entrance into Nato, leading to renewed tensions with Russia, increasing instability in the Donbas, and the build-up of troops on the border.

Russia’s demands: Now with thousands of troops stationed around Ukraine, in December Russia issued a list of demands to Nato that amounted to nothing less than a renegotiation of the entire security order in Eastern Europe. In a draft treaty, Moscow demanded that Nato provide it with legal security ensurances that would block Ukraine from ever becoming a member of the alliance, and withdraw Nato troops from Eastern Europe, which the US and Nato have refused to discuss.

Which brings us to today: Tensions have escalated since the beginning of the year as Russia refuses to withdraw its troops and Western capitals decline to discuss its demands. US and UK officials have briefed repeatedly over past weeks that Moscow is planning to invade, stage “false flag” operations to justify an attack, and mount disinformation campaigns to destabilize the country, and have responded by sending arms and military advisors into Ukraine, and deploying troops to Nato countries. For its part, Russia has branded these warnings as “hysteria” and insists that it has no plans to invade, even as it holds large-scale military drills in neighboring Belarus. Still, several nations have now evacuated non-essential diplomatic staff from Kiev and are advising citizens to leave the country ahead of a potential conflict.

The chances of an armed conflict between two major powers remain low: The Biden administration has been clear that they will not meet military force with military force should Russia invade.

But the impact of a conflict on the global economy could be serious: Biden has pledged that the West would respond “decisively” to any invasion, which could include financial sanctions on Russia’s biggest banks and an export ban on advanced technologies. Russia is a major global economy, a major oil producer, and a major trader, which means any nuclear options — such as an oil and gas embargo or financial sanctions — would likely backfire on the US and other economies, analysts have warned, especially as the energy crisis and growing inflationary pressures continue to put pressure on the global economy.

Egypt won’t be exempt from this: Conflict in Ukraine could have an impact on Egypt and other wheat dependent countries in MENA, analysts say. Egypt is the largest consumer of Ukrainian wheat, last year purchasing the equivalent of around 14% of its total wheat consumption from the eastern European country. Most Ukrainian wheat is grown in the east of the country, which also happens to be the area most likely to be hit by conflict, setting the stage for huge falls in production and supply shortfalls internationally should tensions spill over.

???? CALENDAR

1Q2022: Launch of the Egyptian Commodities Exchange.

1Q2022: Swvl acquisition of Viapool expected to close.

1Q2022: Waste collection startup Bekia plans to expand to the UAE and Saudi Arabia.

1Q2022: Rameda Pharma will begin selling its generic version of Merck’s oral antiviral covid-19 med.

1Q2022: Pharos Energy’s sale of a 55% stake in El Fayum, Beni Suef concessions to IPR Energy Group subsidiary IPR Lake Qarun expected to close.

Early 2022: Results to be announced for the second round of the state’s gold and precious metals auction.

1H2022: Target date for IDH to close its acquisition of 50% of Islamabad Diagnostic Center.

1H2022: e-Finance’s digital healthcare service platform, eHealth, will launch its services.

1H2022: The government will respond to private companies’ bids to build desalination plants.

1H2022: Egypt’s second corporate green bond issuance expected to be announced.

1H2022: The Transport Ministry to sign a memorandum of understanding with Abu Dhabi Ports to set up a transport route across the Nile to transport products from Al Canal’s Minya sugar factory.

January-February 2022: Construction work on the Abu Qir metro upgrade will begin.

February: Hassan Allam Construction’s new construction firm established with Russia’s Titan-2 to handle construction work on the Dabaa nuclear power plant begins its operations.

February: Ghazl El Mahalla shares will begin trading on the EGX.

Mid-February: End of grace period to comply with new minimum wage for firms who sent in exemption requests.

Mid-February: A Hungarian delegation will arrive in Egypt for talks over a potential investment in an industrial area in the SCZone.

4-20 February (Friday-Sunday): 2022 Winter Olympics, Beijing.

13-15 February (Sunday-Tuesday): Arab Sustainable Development Week. Arab League headquarters, Nile Ritz Carlton.

14-16 February (Monday-Wednesday): Egypt Petroleum Show, Egypt International Exhibition Center, New Cairo, Egypt.

14-19 February (Monday- Saturday): An art exhibition created by marginalized children will be held at Townhouse Gallery. The event is organized by the Sawiris Foundation for Social Development, AlexBank, Townhouse Gallery, Al Ismaelia for Real Estate Investment, and Ubuntu Art Gallery.

15 February (Tuesday): The Industrial Development Authority’s deadline for receiving offers from companies for licenses to manufacture steel products.

15 February (Tuesday): Orange Ventures’ deadline to receive applications from seed-stage fintech startups.

19 February (Saturday): Public universities begin the second term of the 2021-2022 academic year.

19-21 February (Saturday-Monday): Nebu Expo for Gold and Jewelry 2022.

21 February (Monday): Hearing at Cairo Economic Court (pdf) on FRA lawsuits filed against Speed Medical.

22 February (Tuesday): The Egyptian National Railway is holding a forum to gauge public interest in its plans to delegate the management and operations of freight transport to the private sector.

22-24 February (Tuesday-Thursday): Investment Forum, General Authority For Investments (GAFI) Main Office, Nasr City.

26 February (Saturday): Speed Medical will elect a new board during ordinary general assembly (pdf).

27 February (Sunday): British-Egyptian Business Association (BEBA) green finance event with Finance Minister Mohamed Maait, Semiramis Intercontinental, Cairo

28 February- 1 March (Monday-Tuesday): The Future of Data Centers Summit.

End of February: Lebanon to receive gas from Egypt via a pipeline crossing Jordan and Syria.

March: Rollout of the government financial management information system (GFMIS), a suite of electronic tools to automate the government’s financial management processes (pdf) that will replace the existing “closed” financial management system.

March: 4Q2021 earnings season.

March: Deadline for the World Health Organization’s intergovernmental negotiating body to meet to discuss binding treaty on future pandemic cooperation.

March: World Cup playoffs.

March: The government hopes to sign a final contract between El Nasr Automotive and a new partner for the local production of electric cars.

March: Target date for Saudi tech firm Brmaja to IPO on the EGX.

March: Egypt to host World Tourirsm Organization Middle East committee meeting.

March: The Salam – new administrative capital – 10th of Ramadan Light Rail Train (LRT) line will start operating.

3 March (Thursday): Fawry’s extraordinary general assembly (pdf) to vote on EGP 800 mn capital increase.

9-18 March (Wednesday-Friday): The 55th edition of the Cairo International Fair.

15-16 March (Tuesday-Wednesday): Federal Reserve interest rate meeting.

24 March (Thursday): Central Bank of Egypt’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

24 March (Thursday): Egypt will host Senegal in the first leg of their 2022 FIFA World Cup qualifiers' playoff.

26 March (Saturday): Egypt-EU World Trade Organization dispute settlement consultations end.

28-29 March (Monday-Tuesday): The Egypt International Mining Show (EIMS 2022) will take place virtually.

29 March (Tuesday): The second leg of the 2022 FIFA World Cup qualifiers' playoff between Egypt and Senegal.

31 March (Thursday): Deadline for submitting tax returns for individual taxpayers.

31 March (Thursday): Vodacom purchase of Vodafone Group’s stake in Vodafone Egypt expected to be completed by this date.

31 March (Thursday): Supply Ministry expected to take final decision on bread subsidies by this date.

April: Fuel pricing committee meets to decide quarterly fuel prices.

2 April (Saturday): First day of Ramadan (TBC).

3 April (Sunday): Bidding begins on the Industrial Development Authority’s license to manufacture tobacco products.

4 April (Monday): CDC Group will formally change its name to British International Investment.

14 April (Thursday): European Central Bank monetary policy meeting.

Mid-April: Trading on the Egyptian Commodity Exchange to start.

22-24 April (Friday-Sunday): World Bank-IMF spring meeting, Washington D.C.

24 April (Sunday): Coptic Easter Sunday (holiday for Coptic Christians).

25 April (Monday): Sham El Nessim.

25 April (Monday): Sinai Liberation Day.

28 April (Thursday): National Holiday in observance of Sham El Nessim.

30 April (Saturday): Deadline for submitting corporate tax returns for companies whose financial year ends 31 December.

Late April – 15 May: 1Q2022 earnings season

May: Investment in Logistics Conference, Cairo, Egypt.

1 May (Sunday): Labor Day.

3-4 May (Tuesday-Wednesday): Federal Reserve interest rate meeting.

4 May (Wednesday): 3 February (Thursday): Deadline to send in applications for Cultural Property Agreement Implementation projects to the US Embassy in Cairo.

5 May (Thursday): National Holiday in observance of Labor Day.

2 May (Monday): Eid El Fitr (TBC).

19 May (Thursday): Central Bank of Egypt’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

9 June (Thursday): European Central Bank monetary policy meeting.

14-15 June (Tuesday-Wednesday): Federal Reserve interest rate meeting.

15-18 June (Wednesday-Saturday): St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF), St. Petersburg.

16 June (Thursday): End of 2021-2022 academic year for public schools.

23 June (Thursday): Central Bank of Egypt’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

27 June-3 July (Monday-Sunday): World University Squash Championships, New Giza.

30 June (Thursday): June 30 Revolution Day, national holiday.

End of 2Q2022: The Financial Regulatory Authority’s new Ins. Act should be approved.

End of 1H2022: Emirati industrial company M Glory Holding and the Military Production Ministry will begin the mass production of dual fuel pickup trucks that can run on natural gas.

2H2022: The inauguration of the Grand Egyptian Museum.

2H2022: IEF-IGU Ministerial Gas Forum, Egypt. Date + location TBA.

2H2022: The government will have vaccinated 70% of the population.

July: A law governing ins. for seasonal contractors will come into effect.

July: Fuel pricing committee meets to decide quarterly fuel prices.

1 July (Friday): FY 2022-2023 begins.

8 July (Friday): Arafat Day.

9-13 July (Saturday-Wednesday): Eid Al Adha, national holiday.

21 July (Thursday): European Central Bank monetary policy meeting.

26-27 July (Tuesday-Wednesday): Federal Reserve interest rate meeting.

30 July (Saturday): Islamic New Year.

Late July – 14 August: 2Q2022 earnings season.

18 August (Thursday): Central Bank of Egypt’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

September: Egypt will display its first naval exhibition with the title Naval Power.

September: Central Bank of Egypt’s Innovation and Financial Technology Center to launch incubator for 25 fintech startups.

8 September (Thursday): European Central Bank monetary policy meeting.

20-21 September (Tuesday-Wednesday): Federal Reserve Finterest rate meeting.

22 September (Thursday): Central Bank of Egypt’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

October: World Bank and IMF annual meetings in Washington, DC

October: Fuel pricing committee meets to decide quarterly fuel prices.

6 October (Thursday): Armed Forces Day, national holiday.

8 October (Saturday): Prophet Muhammad’s birthday, national holiday.

18-20 October(Tuesday-Thursday): Mediterranean Offshore Conference, Alexandria, Egypt.

27 October (Thursday): European Central Bank monetary policy meeting.

Late October – 14 November: 3Q2022 earnings season.

November: Cairo Water Week 2022.

1-2 November (Tuesday-Wednesday): Federal Reserve interest rate meeting.

3 November (Thursday): Central Bank of Egypt’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

7-18 November (Monday-Friday): Egypt will host COP27 in Sharm El Sheikh.

21 November-18 December (Monday-Sunday): 2022 Fifa World Cup, Qatar.

13-14 December (Tuesday-Wednesday): Federal Reserve interest rate meeting.

15 December (Thursday): European Central Bank monetary policy meeting.

22 December (Thursday): Central Bank of Egypt’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

End of 2022: e-Aswaaq’s tourism platform will complete the roll out of its ticketing and online booking portal across Egypt.

January 2023: EGX-listed companies and non-bank lenders will submit ESG reports for the first time.

January: Fuel pricing committee meets to decide quarterly fuel prices.

**Note to readers: Some national holidays may appear twice above. Since 2020, Egypt has observed most mid-week holidays on Thursdays regardless of the day on which they fall and may also move those days to Sundays. We distinguish above between the actual holiday and its observance.

Enterprise is a daily publication of Enterprise Ventures LLC, an Egyptian limited liability company (commercial register 83594), and a subsidiary of Inktank Communications. Summaries are intended for guidance only and are provided on an as-is basis; kindly refer to the source article in its original language prior to undertaking any action. Neither Enterprise Ventures nor its staff assume any responsibility or liability for the accuracy of the information contained in this publication, whether in the form of summaries or analysis. © 2022 Enterprise Ventures LLC.

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