EnterprisePM: Headline inflation slowed last month + Banque Misr wants 90% of CI Capital

 

Good afternoon, everyone. We hope Wednesday has treated you well, that you’ve been super-productive, and that you’re looking forward to a relaxing evening with family and friends.

THE BIG STORY here at home today: Annual urban headline inflation slowed to its lowest level since September 2020. Most pundits think this makes it even more likely that the central bank will go for a rate cut this year. We have all the details in Speed Round, below, and a counterpoint in Go with the Flow.

THE BIG STORY in global business news right now: Both the Wall Street Journal and the Financial Times are leading with Donald Trump’s second impeachment, where Democrats are to lay out their case today in day two of his trial.

Your statutorily required afternoon covid update: Several GCC countries have seen new daily cases creep back up to near last year’s record highs, while the results so far from Israel’s super-fast rollout of the Pfizer jab should give us all a measure of hope.

CATCH UP QUICK- The top stories from this morning’s edition of EnterprisePM:

• Egyptian equities are looking under-priced right now, EFG says in its look ahead at what’s in store for the market and the economy in 2021.
• Non-bank financial services players are going after healthcare professionals and merchants as competition in the red-hot sector heats up.
• The Finance Ministry has no plans to tap the global bond market before the end of June, minister Mohamed Maait said after a snap USD 3.75 bn issuance earlier this week.

*** You’re reading Issue #3 of EnterprisePM, our afternoon briefing on what’s going on in Egypt and emerging markets — and your guide to where you may want to spend your time and money tonight. You can subscribe to Enterprise by hitting the link in the nice green box below:

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???? CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR- The World Economic Forum will take place in Singapore this coming August after having already been delayed once to May. Organizers are looking at a much smaller gathering and don’t expect to be back in Davos until 2022.

???? FOR YOUR COMMUTE-

From the Department of Duh, #1: There’s no bubble and stocks will keep going up. Unless they don’t. JPMorgan’s co-president tells CNBC that “I don’t see a [stock market] correction anytime soon, unless the situation changes dramatically.” Somewhat more cogently, he admits what not many bankers want to talk about: That upstarts including “challenger banks” and fintech startups are actually threat: “They are very good at creating a great client experience. They are very good at delivering products fast. They are very good at creating an image that is cool.” Go read: JPMorgan’s Wall Street chief gives his call for the stock market, SPACs, fintech and CEO succession.

Maybe we could all get together and raise a bond to make sure it happens — and that he’s in the cargo bay at takeoff? “Turkey aims to achieve first contact with the moon as part of its national space programme in 2023,” Reuters reports the Nutter in Ankara as having said. Quoth Erdogan: “The first rough landing will be made on the moon with our national and authentic hybrid rocket that shall be launched into orbit in the end of 2023 through international cooperation.” National and authentic? Sounds great.

From the Department of Duh, #2: Cisco’s CEO says people want to go back to working in the office. “One of our employees said to me the other day, ‘I don’t mind the option of working from home. I don’t like being forced to work from home.’” Groundbreaking. And “one of our employees?” Sounds like a really scientific survey, sir. More to the point: Salesforce is looking beyond the pandemic and mulling what its remote work policy should be — and what post-covid offices might look like. Employees will have more flexibility to work remotely — and office design is changing: “As employees are expected to do much of their independent work remotely, the mock-ups of the new offices feature cafe-style seating, open-air conference areas and private nooks, with an emphasis on clean desks and social distancing.”

PSA- A movie can be a nail-biter. So can a TV series. Some novels rise to the description. But actual nail biting IRL? No thanks. Want to get out of the habit and help keep the rest of us sane? Go read the WSJ’s How can I stop stress-biting my nails?

SIGNS OF THE TIMES-

• The studio that brought us Ice Age and Rio is dead. Disney is shutting down Blue Sky Studios as covid saps its movie and theme park businesses, Bloomberg reports.
• Japan is seeing a rise in the suicide rate among young and middle-aged women, the Financial Times writes. Officials are scrambling to figure out what’s at play, with possible factors including domestic violence and more stress due to childcare or serving disproportionately.

???? ON THE TUBE TONIGHT-

No football matches in sight today: La Liga and Serie A are taking a breather until Friday while the Premier League’s gameweek 24 will begin on Saturday. It’s a double gameweek in the English league, so Fantasy PL players might want to think about breaking out a triple captain or bench boost.

Terry loves Netflix: Season 7 of Brooklyn Nine-Nine has finally dropped on Netflix. Diehard fans have already planned out their night accordingly. If you haven’t yet sampled New York’s 99th precinct, give it a chance. Yeah, we’re tired of cop shows, too. Comedy, drama, doesn’t matter. But this one stars Andre Braugher.

For the documentary buffs among you, Netflix has released an original documentary series titled Crime Scene: The Vanishing at the Cecil Hotel, which explores the notorious crime hub Cecil Hotel in Los Angeles, specifically the mysterious disappearance of a Canadian college student. Variety and the Guardian aren’t impressed.

Amazon Prime has added some throwbacks to its platform this month, including Jackie Chan’s The Spy Next Door and Dazed and Confused starring Ben Affleck and Matthew McConaughey. (“Alright, alright, alright”).

???? EAT THIS TONIGHT-

Pizza with a real Italian stamp of approval: Maadi’s What The Crust (Google Maps) is Africa’s first only Associazione Verace Pizza napoletana (AVPN) certified pizzeria. AVPN (literally: The True Neapolitan Pizza Association) certifies pizzerias that cook up an “excellent product of Neapolitan tradition.” It’s one of the best pies in Cairo — and it’s female owned and led. Check out the restaurant’s website and menu. Order in advance — when they get busy, y’all are gonna be waiting a while.

What’s your favourite restaurant? Downtown, New Cairo, Zayed — it doesn’t matter. Drop us a note and include a few sentences on why. We’ll stockpile your answers and write them up for future issues, with an h/t to you. Send us your picks on editorial@enterprise.press.

???? FOR TECH NERDS-

An app recommendation from someone we don’t know, but love on Twitter: Machead and former New York Times / Wirecutter and Macworld journo Dan Frakes tipped us to TextSniper. Take a screenshot and it will OCR any text it contains. The text goes straight into your clipboard so you can paste it into just about any other document you can think of.

Why follow Frakes? If tips like this aren’t enough, he’s also the one who brought to our attention the brilliant The case for semicolons.

???? OUT AND ABOUT-

It’s French Movie Month in Cairo: The French Institute of Egypt (l’institut français d’Égypte) is screening one movie every Wednesday over the course of February with the films selected from the 2019 Cannes Film Festival. Today’s movie: Alice et le Maire. Catch the trailer here. Venue: the institute’s main office in Downtown Cairo (Google Maps).

A comedy show at a secret venue? Al Hezb El Comedy Founder Hashem El Garhy will be performing his one-hour special 300 Grams tomorrow at 8pm CLT. The venue hasn’t been announced, instead you’re meant to text a number to receive the exact whereabouts of the event. Hit the link for the digits.

???? UNDER THE LAMPLIGHT-

A BOOK THAT CHANGED HOW WE SEE (AND RUN) OUR BUSINESS: Built to Sell, by John Warrillow, whose thesis is that every business owner should set out to build a company that can run without them. That’s a business that’s (a) sellable and (b) sellable at a great multiple and with no earn-out. It’s also a business that could very likely continue to pay you (or your heirs) dividends long after you retire or shrug off this mortal coil, in the event you decide not to sell. The book is short and told through a fictional character, making it one of the easiest-to-read self-help business books you’ll ever pick up. The central character’s firm is in the service industry, but the lessons learned apply to just about any sector you could think about.

We love it so much we order copies by the boxful and give them away to business owners who are trying to figure out how to stop working “in” the business and start leading it. On Amazon Kindle and as an audiobook. Want more? Try his podcast and website.

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☀️ TOMORROW’S WEATHER- Sunny with a daytime high of 25°C and an overnight low of 11°C. Your weekend outlook is more of the same, with a high of 24°C on Friday and 22°C on Saturday. Brace yourselves for a cold snap starting the middle of next week, though…

Annual headline inflation in January slowed to its lowest level since September 2020. Urban headline inflation dropped for the second consecutive month to 4.3% from 5.4% in December 2020, and closing in on a 3.7% record low reading last September, figures from state statistics agency Capmas (pdf) and the central bank (pdf) showed. On a monthly basis, inflation was -0.4%, as a further drop in food and vegetable prices from an increase in stockpiles and a fall in food exports led to the same pace of deflation recorded in December. The story is getting attention from Reuters and Bloomberg.

Food and beverage prices fell again this month, dropping 1.6% month-on-month and 0.5% y-o-y from January 2020. The price of vegetables fell over 20% on average from December, after having already seen a 10% m-o-m drop in the final month of the year, despite the winter holidays’ effect on seasonal spending. Most other consumer price index constituents were flat.

Annual core inflation — which strips out volatile items — fell to 3.6% in January compared to 3.8% in December. Monthly core inflation, meanwhile, ticked up to 0.5% from 0% in December.

Inflation fell below CBE target: The reading came below the lower band of the central bank’s 7% (+/- 2%) target. The CBE adjusted its target range from 6% (+/-3%) in December after inflation was muted for the better part of 2020 and exceeded its previous target only once. Persistently low inflation previously triggered consultations with the IMF’s technical team late last year under the terms of a stand-by loan agreement.

And below analyst expectations: “Inflation for January 2020 came in much lower than our expectations” on the back of food and vegetable prices, Pharos’ head of research Radwa Elswaify said. Elswaify had expected a higher reading every month throughout the first three quarters of 2021, and a slowdown only toward 4Q20021. “The slowdown in inflation brought down the 2021 expected average level to 5.3%,” Pharos said in a client note this morning.

Momentum looking forward: February should see a m-o-m figure of 0.5% and an annual headline rate of 5.2% and 4.8% in urban parts of Egypt, Elswaify said. Naeem Brokerage echoed Elswaify’s sentiment, saying in a research note that inflation will increase in the near term “on the back of the ongoing surge in global commodity prices.”

Is a rate cut on the horizon? “Since [the] inflation reading came lower than expectations, this raises real rates and improves the chances for a 50 bps rate cut early this year,” Elswaify said. Pharos is yet to confirm its forecast for the upcoming policy meeting. Whether or not we see a cut when the central bank meets next month would “depend on a few variables including upcoming commodity price shocks, including oil and food, liquidity and carry-trade attractiveness,” Naeem Brokerage’s director of research Allen Sandeep said.

The monetary policy committee is due to next meet on 18 March. The MPC left rates unchanged during their most recent meeting on 4 February, citing muted economic activity. The hold was the second in a row. It came after the CBE enacted two consecutive 50 bps rate cuts in each of November and September, and a record 300 bps cut in March — bringing total rate cuts in 2020 to 400 bps.

CI Capital could soon be almost fully owned by Banque Misr: The state-owned bank filed a mandatory tender offer yesterday as it looks to raise its stake to up to 90% from the 24.7% it holds today. The MTO, which targets 653 mn shares at EGP 4.70 apiece (a small premium to the EGP 4.55 at which it opened this morning), could give the transaction a potential value of EGP 3 bn, the Financial Regulatory Authority (FRA) said in a statement (pdf). The offer is currently under study by the FRA, after which it would launch on the EGX and invite shareholders to sell. Banque Misr announced its intention to acquire the EGX-listed investment bank earlier this week.

CI shares closed down 0.9% today on the news.

The move is part of a trend we’re seeing of state-owned banks making a play for some of the country’s leading investment banks. This includes the (fairly recent) acquisition of Pharos by NBE’s Ahly Capital and of Arabeya Online by NI Capital.

The government has started rolling out new water saving-technology in Upper Egypt aimed at helping farmers reduce waste and improve crop productivity, Reuters reports. The pilot program provides farmers with tools that use sensors to monitor soil moisture which transmit data to an accompanying mobile app that allows users to more accurately gauge how much water is needed to maintain crop health. The project is part of a drive to encourage farmers and landowners to move away from outdated, inefficient irrigation techniques.

Convincing farmers may be the tough part: Only a handful of farmers in Minya and the New Valley governorates have so far seen the initial phase of the program, which was met with mixed reviews. Some say that they were able to reduce water usage by up to 20% and cut down on labor costs by some 30%. Other observers feared a full roll out of the program would not bode well with small-scale farmers, many of whom would struggle to adapt to the new technology, they said.

Background: The pilot system, which was developed by the Irrigation Ministry and MSA University and launched late last year, comes amid government efforts to sharply cut agricultural water consumption, which comprises some 85% of our annual water use.

The issue becomes even more pressing when factoring in the threat of GERD and the subsequent 12% reduction in our Nile water allotment hanging on the horizon—which currently amounts to some 55.5 bcm/ year and accounts for 70% of our water usage. A permanent drop of 5 bcm of Nile water to Egypt would cause the loss of 1 mn acres of farmland, or 12% of the country’s total, Irrigation Minister Mohammed Nasr Allam said last year.

WANT A PRIMER ON OUR AILING WATER INFRASTRUCTURE? Hardhat took a deep dive late last year on what were the causes of leakages in our drinking water and irrigation water infrastructure and we’re doing about it. Read: Part 1, Part 2, and Part 3.

The EGX30 rose 0.85% at today’s close on turnover of EGP 1.92 bn (26% above the 90-day average). Regional investors were net sellers. The index is up 6.45% YTD.

In the green: Fawry (+4.2%), Pioneers Holding (+3.1%) and Sidi Kerir Petrochemicals (+2.4%).

In the red: Cleopatra Hospital (-1.0%), CI Capital (-0.9%), and Export Development Bank of Egypt (-0.9%)

IN THE HOT SEAT TODAY- We reached out to our analyst of the week — Arqaam’s Noaman Khalid — who gave us color on the what impact today’s inflation news had on markets.

The EGX turned a blind eye to the dip in inflation, closing up less than 1% on heavy turnover.

Notable exceptions include Fawry, which was up 4.2%, and Pioneers (3.1%), signalling the continued strength of finance and fintech.

How will today’s inflation figures feature in the next CBE Monetary Policy Meeting? Not much, says Khalid. In the short-run, the wider implications of the pandemic — especially the vaccine rollout — will have a greater impact than local macro triggers. And as the weather gets warmer, and the current wave of the virus decreases, consumer spending will go up, supporting inflation.

Either way, the heaviest rate cuts are behind us, says Khalid. The wiggle room for further cuts is getting shorter, falling to 100 to 150 bps.

CBE will prioritize unifying corridor rates and yields: Right now, open market control is a more pressing issue as we notice that local macro triggers such as inflation take a back seat in terms of overall impact. The current overnight deposit and lending rates remain at 8.25% and 9.25% respectively, which is appropriate, says Khalid. But yields are at around 10.5%. What the CBE would want to do is narrow that gap.

Meanwhile, Khalid sees rising oil prices as being a net positive for the market. First, history has shown that investors aren’t really too scared of any inflationary impact of rising oil prices (which finally broke past the USD 60 / bbl barrier this week). This is a sign that things are headed to pre-covid figures, which should increase overall global investor sentiment.

After all, we’re one region: Any gains for GCC markets from the rise in oil prices ultimately spill over to Egypt.

The former CTO of Microsoft has taken some of the highest quality photos of snowflakes ever seen, reports Smithsonian Magazine. Nathan Myhrvold developed a prototype that’s one part microscope, one part camera that captures snowflakes at a microscopic level? Sounds simple, right? Now remember: His subjects melt. The device stands five feet in height off the ground when placed on a table and is equipped with a thermoelectric cooling system that keeps the snowflakes at -15°C to -20°C, which he calls “the snowflake-shooting sweet spot.”

Can video games help save the world? Major game titles have been upping environmentalist themes in gameplay as a way to raise awareness about the dangers of climate change and how to combat them, reports The Financial Times. Sims characters have stopped leaving the TV on all night or heating the backyard pool all winter, with a recent expansion pack — The Sims 4: Eco Lifestyle — allowing them to instead tap into their “full eco warrior.” The updated characters practice everything from recycling and collecting dew for their morning showers to upcycling their own clothes and making candles. Sims maker Will Wright had the environment in mind from early on; incorporating global warming into the 1990 release of SimEarth.

A recent add-on for Minecraft introduced carbon dioxide levels to the game, allowing players to monitor greenhouse gas levels and reduce it by planting trees. The Minecraft Education platform used the add-on features to teach children how common chemical reactions can be created by natural and human activities. Civilization VI also featured an expansion in June 2019 titled Gathering Storm, where rising pollution levels could turn plains into deserts — a theme first featured in Civilization’s first game release in 2001.

For more climate-change related games, you can check out these lists by The BBVA and The Verge.

Taking it one step further: What about the carbon footprint of consoles? The gaming industry has also begun to look at its sustainability practices in hardware production and beyond. For example, the plastics and metals used to manufacture Playstation 4 hardware resulted in more carbon emissions than all of Jamaica would put out in a year, The Verge found. Even after production, consoles have a carbon footprint, with the electricity used to fuel gaming hardware in the US alone estimated to be equal to powering 5 mn cars — or the annual energy use of Denmark, according to a study in the Computer Games Journal.

Gaming companies are looking for solutions: The industry have already been moving towards a shift to digital downloads as opposed to physical game disks, and major players such as Microsoft and Sony have set ambitious environmental targets — Microsoft intends to be carbon negative by 2030, and Sony plans to “achieve a zero environmental footprint” by 2050. The United Nations founded in 2019 “The Playing for the Planet Initiative” which now has 29 global gaming companies as members. The initiative supports integrating green activations in games, reducing emissions, and reducing plastic in products as well as planting mns of trees.

A previous generation said never to trust anybody over 30. The modern day remix? Don’t trust a social media platform — or an oil company.

Apple is moving past corporate trash talk in its war of words with Facebook and is forcing the Zuck to comply with new guidelines that protect user privacy (provided they’re using an Apple device). “Beginning sometime this spring, every iOS app that wants to ‘track’ a user — that is, share their behavior and data with other apps, websites, or data brokers — has to first get their express permission,” writes Wired. If most users opt out, this could slash Mark Zuckerberg’s top line by more than 10%. Facebook has in turn launched a PR offensive against Apple, claiming the company will hurt small businesses who use Facebook ads to target customers.

The counterpoint: Apple has a long track record of publicly taking steps to protect user privacy, from limiting third-party cookies in Safari to doing as much computing as possible on device rather than in the cloud. CEO Tim Cook said in 2018 that privacy is a fundamental human right and has called it “one of the top issues of the century” as his battle with Facebook has played out.

Who to trust? Third parties agree: El Face’s campaign against Apple is BS. Read Facebook’s laughable campaign against Apple is really against users and small businesses by the Electronic Frontier Foundation, which calls ‘em as it sees ‘em.

Need a clearer answer? Ask yourselves where the fraudsters are. Number of people on our staff whose credit cards have been compromised and used in a Facebook ad scam in the past two weeks? Two. Number of people whose credit cards have ever been used in an Apple ad scam? Zero.

Big Tech may be rotting our brains, sewing hate and contributing to the general decline of human civilization — but hey, they’re trying to be good to the environment. Amazon, Facebook and Google have joined Apple and Microsoft to become “the dominant buyers of clean power” as they look to make good on environmental pledges, the Financial Times reports.

You know who’s not doing so well by the environment, even as they blather on about becoming “energy” companies? Multinational oil giants. The latest case in point: Chevron just dumped 600 gallons of oil into San Francisco Bay from a refinery on the water’s edge. Every time we turn around, we see the oil industry’s environmental footprint was even worse than we had feared.

Surprised? These are companies that tried to make us all doubt climate change and who used the same people as the tobacco industry to sway public opinion…

February: France’s finance minister, Bruno Le Maire, is set to visit Egypt.

6-20 February (Saturday-Saturday): Mid-year school break (public schools — enjoy the break from bumper-to-bumper traffic).

7-28 February (Sunday-Sunday): The Finance Ministry will receive applications from companies wishing to take part in the second phase of its program for the immediate payout of export subsidy arrears to exporters, minus a 15% fee.

10-11 February (Wednesday-Thursday): Egypt will host an arm of the World Conference on Science Engineering and Technology, Hotel Pavillon Winter, Luxor, Egypt.

12 February (Friday): Deadline to reach a settlement with the Tax Authority on overdue income, value-added, or real estate taxes without all the late fees. Late taxpayers are still eligible for a 50% exemption on interest fees and late penalties until 12 February under a bill passed last year, Tax Authority boss Reda Abdel Kader said.

12-15 February (Friday-Monday): Students will be able to apply for placement at private universities on the Higher Education Ministry’s electronic university admissions site

17 February (Wednesday): MENA x CEO MENA Entrepreneurship & VC Panel: Investor Perspectives from New York to North Africa will be hosted by the Columbia Entrepreneurs Organization.

20 February (Saturday): Final results of applications for private university places will be announced on the Higher Education Ministry’s electronic university admissions site

22-24 February (Monday-Wednesday): Second Arab Land Conference on land management, efficient land use, among other topics.

22 February- 5 March (Monday-Friday) Egypt will host the World Shooting Championship in 6 October’s Shooting Club, with 31 countries set to participate

26 February (Thursday): The Afro Future Summit will take place virtually.

28 February (Sunday) Deadline for businesses, sole traders, and those generating income from sources other than their day job to file wage tax returns through the electronic filing system.

March: Potential visit to Cairo by Russian President Vladimir Putin.

1-5 March (Monday-Friday): Aswan Forum for Peace and Development will take place virtually.

4-6 March (Thursday-Saturday): Cairo Fashion & Tex trade show, Cairo International Convention Centre, Cairo, Egypt

8 March (Monday): The IDC Future of Work Egypt conference will be held virtually featuring experts from Egypt and Jordan.

9-11 March (Tuesday-Thursday): EduGate 2021 – Enter The Future conference, Kempinski Royal Maxim Hotel, Cairo, Egypt.

18 March (Thursday): The CBE’s Monetary Policy Committee will meet to review interest rates.

1-3 April (Thursday-Saturday): HVAC-R Egypt Expo.

8-10 April (Thursday-Saturday): The TriFactory’s Endurance Festival at Somabay.

13 April (Monday): First day of Ramadan (TBC).

25 April (Sunday): Sinai Liberation Day.

29 April (Thursday): National holiday in observance of Sinai Liberation Day (TBC),

29 April (Thursday): The CBE’s Monetary Policy Committee will meet to review interest rates.

1 May (Saturday): Labor Day (national holiday).

2 May (Sunday): Easter Sunday.

3 May (Monday): Sham El Nessim.

13-15 May (Thursday-Saturday): Eid El Fitr (TBC).

25-28 May (Tuesday-Friday): The World Economic Forum annual meeting, Singapore.

1 June (Tuesday): The IMF will conduct a second review of targets set under the USD 5.2 bn standby loan approved in June 2020 (proposed date).

7 June-9 June (Monday-Wednesday): Egypt Petroleum Show, Egypt International Exhibition Center, New Cairo, Egypt.

17 June (Thursday): The CBE’s Monetary Policy Committee will meet to review interest rates.

24 June (Thursday): End of the 2020-2021 academic year (public schools).

26-29 June (Saturday-Tuesday): The Big 5 Construct Egypt, Cairo International Convention Center, Cairo, Egypt.

30 June (Wednesday): 30 June Revolution Day.

1 July: (Thursday): National holiday in observance of 30 June Revolution.

30 June- 15 July: National Book Fair.

1 July (Thursday): Large taxpayers that have not yet signed on on to the e-invoicing platform will suffer a host of penalties, including removal from large taxpayer classification, losing access to government services and business, and losing subsidies.

19 July (Monday): Arafat Day (national holiday).

20-23 July (Tuesday-Friday): Eid Al Adha (national holiday)

23 July (Friday): Revolution Day (national holiday).

5 August (Thursday): The CBE’s Monetary Policy Committee will meet to review interest rates.

9 August (Monday): Islamic New Year.

12 August (Thursday): National holiday in observance of the Islamic New Year.

16 September (Thursday): The CBE’s Monetary Policy Committee will meet to review interest rates.

30 September-2 October (Thursday-Saturday): Egypt Projects 2021 expo, Egypt International Exhibition Center, Cairo, Egypt.

1 October (Friday): Expo 2020 Dubai opens.

6 October (Wednesday): Armed Forces Day.

7 October (Thursday): National holiday in observance of Armed Forces Day.

18 October (Monday): Prophet’s Birthday.

21 October (Thursday): National holiday in observance of the Prophet’s Birthday.

28 October (Thursday): The CBE’s Monetary Policy Committee will meet to review interest rates.

13-17 December: United Nations Convention against Corruption, Sharm El Sheikh, Egypt.

16 December (Thursday): The CBE’s Monetary Policy Committee will meet to review interest rates.

27 June – 3 July 2022 (Monday-Sunday): World University Squash Championships, New Giza.

Note to readers: Some national holidays may appear twice above. Since 2020, Egypt has observed most mid-week holidays on Thursdays regardless of the day on which they fall and may also move those days to Sundays. We distinguish below between the actual holiday and its observance.