Wednesday, 11 November 2015

Oil Ministry looks to triple LNG imports over two years, encourages domestic players to expand regionally

TL;DR

Qalaa divests Rashidi El Mizan, selling to Saudi’s Olayan (Speed Round)

Urban inflation rises to 9.7% in October (Speed Round)

CIB posts 37% rise in third quarter net income (Speed Round)

Oil Ministry looks to triple LNG imports over two years, encourages domestic players to expand regionally (Speed Round)

Pico founder Salah Diab’s detention extended for 15 days (Speed Round)

Did embattled Valeant complete its acquisition of Egypt’s Amoun? (Speed Round)

Abraaj leads USD 60 mn series C for car-sharing app Careem (Speed Round)

Alex factories paralyzed by water cut (Manufacturing)

Kuwait’s ABK finalizes acquisition of Piraeus Egypt (Banking + Finance)

By the Numbers + Are banks looking at a period of compressed margins?

WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

The 37th Cairo International Film Festival begins today and runs through Friday, 20 November. While readers may have found the website down the last time we linked to it, it’s now back online and has since been revamped with a much more attractive design, so kudos to whoever put that together (although it’s 2015, so the scrolling marquee text needs to go). You can get tickets online at e7gezly and the schedule is here. The festival opens with the 2015 Meryl Streep film Ricki and the Flash, which unfortunately looks like a made for Lifetime television movie (Watch the trailer, running time: 3:21).

…That said: There are plenty of movies lined up that some of us at Enterprise would actually go see. Probably all of the ‘Spotlight on Japanese Animated Movies,’ which will play everyday in the 4:30 pm slot, with the post-apocalyptic Nausicaä of the Valley of the Wind playing on Friday at 10 am. Others that look worth watching: Ingrid Bergman: In her own words (Sunday 15 November at 6:00 pm), as well as entries from a number of Egyptian filmmakers. The festival is giving special tributes to the enormous film talent that Egypt lost in this past year: Omar El Sherif (screening Lawrence of Arabia on Tuesday 17 November at 8:30 pm) as well as Faten Hamama, Hussein Fahmy and Nour El Sherif.

Meanwhile: President Abdel Fattah El Sisi is in Saudi Arabia, where heads of state from the Middle East and Latin America have gathered for the fourth Arab-South American summit, Al Masry Al Youm reports. The two-day summit started in Riyadh yesterday.

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ON THE HORIZON

The Upper Egypt Investment Conference will take place in Hurghada on 11-12 December. The event will aim in part to attract more Saudi investments to country, as GAFI head Alaa Omar invited the Saudi Chambers of Commerce Association and Saudi companies to take part, AMAY reports. Investment Minister Ashraf Salman had stated at the 7 October cabinet meeting that the conference will showcase 93 investment-ready projects in Upper Egypt. The gathering was originally scheduled to take place in early fall.

12-13 December (Saturday-Sunday): RiseUp Entrepreneurship and Innovation Summit 2015, The Greek Campus & Downtown Area, Cairo, Egypt. Register online here.

13-16 December (Sunday-Wednesday): Cairo ICT 2015, Cairo International Conference Center.

LAST NIGHT’S TALK SHOWS

After thanking donors to the Tahya Masr Fund, Lamis El Hadidy went on last night to discuss the release of rights activist and journalist Hossam Bahgat.

“Hossam Bahgat’s case is very similar to that of the Al Jazeera journalists… We make decisions without considering their high political cost. Our image abroad is hurt by these actions… We always manage to shoot ourselves in the foot,” exclaimed El Hadidy.

Midway through the episode, Social Solidarity Minister Ghada Wali called in with information on the government’s ongoing relief efforts in Beheira: “We are working to contain the flooding in Beheira and to curb losses for villages. We have asked the Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN (FAO) to provide assistance to farmers affected by the flooding… We will meet with government cooperatives on Sunday to discuss cooperation on the recovery effort.”

Shortly afterward, Cabinet spokesman Hossam Qawish called-in with further details on the government relief strategy for Beheira. “The Prime Minister has visited the governorate twice since the flooding occurred… He has formed an emergency committee comprising officials from ten different ministries to address the crisis.”

El Hadidy was clearly annoyed during much of the phone call, unsatisfied with Qawish’s responses to her questions regarding the government’s strategy: “We are aware of the cause of the problem, Ambassador. We would like to hear to your solutions,” said the host.

For the second night in a row, Amr Adeeb, lead host of Alqahera Al Youm, talked about efforts to address the humanitarian crisis in the Beheira village of Afouna.

Adeeb: “The military has arrived in Afouna to help its people… Within 40 days, Afouna will be one of Egypt’s model villages… There are times that one is so proud to be Egyptian. Truly, during crises, Egyptians always stand by one another.”

The host then transitioned to a discussion of interest rate hikes on term deposits after Banque Misr and NBE raised rates to 12.5% earlier this week, prompting a number of private-sector institutions to follow suit. Adeeb questioned the reasoning behind it: “How will the banks pay able to pay these interest rates to clients? Where will they get the money from? Are there projects that you plan to invest in? Egyptian banks never invest their money in projects,” said the host angrily.

Is the Muslim Brotherhood back in public and political life? That’s the question bedeviling Ibrahim Eissa, who believes Ikhwanis managed to win posts in the Lawyers’ Syndicate elections.

Eissa: “What we are seeing now is identical to what took place prior to January 2011. We are seeing the reemergence of the Ikhwan, accompanied by the death of political life in Egypt. All this is taking place at the hands of the security apparatus. They are implementing Habib El Adly’s plan once more: Killing political life and opposition media in Egypt. … In time, the Ikhwan will once again remain as the only legitimate opposition entity in Egypt. We are returning to square one. Nothing has changed since January 2011.”

Eissa gave a talk at the Journalist Syndicate’s headquarters on Sunday, which was attended by the Minister of Culture as well as Islamic researcher Islam El Beheiry under the theme of repealing Article 98 of Egypt’s penal code, which criminalizes blasphemy. According to Eissa, a civilian state that embraces freedom of speech failed to emerge after 30 June. Egypt’s security apparatus, said Eissa, does not believe in freedom of expression and views the concept with enmity. He did make sure, however, to conclude the talk on a positive note, stating that the biggest impediments to establishing a free society are hopelessness and despair, calling on citizens and fellow journalists to continue along their path to establish a more just society. The host also urged those in the audience to work together to repeal Egypt’s blasphemy laws, which stand in the way of rationalism and freedom.

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Qalaa Holdings announced that its business unit Gozour has signed an agreement to sell 100% of confectioner Rashidi El-Mizan to Saudi Arabia’s Olayan Financing Company and its subsidiaries for total consideration (equity value) of EGP 518 mn. Qalaa Holdings currently has an effective ownership of 55% in Rashidi El-Mizan and said the sales proceeds further deliver on its strategy of “deleveraging at the holding and platform company levels.” CI Capital acted as financial advisor and Helmy, Hamza & Partners as legal advisor to Olayan Financing Company. EFG Hermes acted as financial advisor and Arab Legal Consultants as legal advisor to Qalaa Holdings on the transaction.

The Central Bank of Egypt will back 25% of FX loans issued by banks to importers, Al Borsa reports. The support is conditional on the banks depositing the liquidity from this coverage back into the CBE at the current LIBOR-pegged interest rate, an unnamed “prominent banker” told DNE. Also: National media has woken up to the fact that the 12.5% interest offered on medium-term deposits by the NBE and Banque Misr could be a prelude to a change in monetary policy. CBE governor-designate Tarek Amer is discussing monetary policy in meetings with both manufacturers and traders, a source at the CBE said, according to AMAY. Amer, it is widely believed, backs raising interest rates on deposits to strengthen the domestic currency and curb inflation ahead of devaluation. The CBE will continue to encourage high-interest-rate CDs, as they serve to both increase participation in the banking system and help to strengthen the national currency, Al Ahram reports. Banque du Caire has now begun issuing the 12.5% yield deposit certificates it announced earlier this week, according to Al Masry Al Youm.

Speaking of inflation: Annual urban headline inflation rate rose to 9.7% in October from 9.2% in September, CAPMAS announced. Core inflation also increased, registering 6.26% in October compared to 5.55% a month earlier. “The further rise … was driven almost entirely by an increase in the food component, which is highly volatile,” according to a research note from Capital Economics.

CIB posts 3Q2015 net income of EGP 1.33 bn, up 37% y-o-y: Market bellwether Commercial International Bank (CIB) released its third quarter results last night, with revenue surging 30% to EGP 7.58 bn in the same period. “The macro environment and market direction remain challenging. We approach the fourth quarter of the year with rising uncertainty about the direction of interest rates and the sustainability of the recent rebound in the tourism market. However, management has taken proactive measures to stress test the entire business for major moves in interest rates (+/- 400 basis points) alongside concurrent exchange rate moves, and has put in place comprehensive contingency measures appropriate to each scenario.” Deposits rose 27% year-to-date to EGP 154 bn. CIB grew financing to individuals and businesses by 18% YTD, reaching EGP 62.6 bn. The institution’s net loan portfolio is up 17% YTD, while NPLs fell almost 9%. The full release is here (pdf).

Egypt to triple LNG imports over the next two years despite recent gas finds, Oil Minister Tarek El Molla told the UAE’s The National. By 2017, Egypt is expected to be importing 1.5 mcf of gas per day. El Molla expects gas from the Zohr field to begin trickling on to the market in two years, but there will be a gradual increase to maximum production, but he declined to give figures as to when the field might reach peak production. El Molla said he is unsure when the Segas liquefaction terminal would resume operations, but that discussions are ongoing and that Egypt is prioritising satisfying local demand first.

El Molla says Egyptian oil companies should expand internationally: Egyptian oil companies should focus on expanding their investments abroad, Oil Minister Tarek El Molla said, adding that some Egyptian companies have already managed to win contracts abroad and gain international experience. In related news, Petrojet announced it was awarded three new projects in Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Oman. (Editor’s note: Among the companies that have landed international concessions are the Diab family’s Pico Petroleum, Cheiron Petroleum and Pico Energy, which operate in countries including Egypt, Mexico and Romania.)

Speaking of the Diabs: South Giza Court ordered Salah Diab’s detention renewed for 15 days, Ahram Gate reported. Diab, the founder of the Pico group of companies and owner of Al Masry Al Youm, was arrested on Sunday on charges of possessing unlicensed firearms. Diab attended the court session on Tuesday with his lawyers Farid El Deeb and Mohamed Hammouda. Diab and his son Tawfik were arrested at home in early morning raids. Egypt Independent has more.

Andarko Petroleum, not ExxonMobil or BP, is bidding to acquire Apache, according to reports from CNBC and Bloomberg. Analysts at Simmons & Co had earlier told clients that one of the two global majors was likely the running, with Reuters quoting Simmons as writing: “While some might be surprised regarding BP, keep in mind that Apache bought a large amount of assets from BP in the Permian, Canada and Egypt,” following BP’s Macondo well blowout. Bloomberg says the acquisition “would be the largest for an independent U.S. oil and gas producer this year and would create an explorer that pumps more crude than OPEC member Ecuador.” As we noted yesterday, Apache has reportedly spurned the approach and retained Goldman Sachs to advise on options. In addition to a broad footprint in the United States, Andarko has operations in Algeria, Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Kenya, Mozambique, South Africa, New Zealand, Brazil and Columbia. The company delivered sales volumes of c. 72 mn barrels of oil equivalent in 3Q2015, according to its operating report (pdf) for the period.

Did Canada’s Valeant complete its USD 800 mn acquisition of Egypt’s Amoun Pharmaceuticals before its recent troubles began? The company, which has lost about 70% of its market cap since its shares peaked in August just before a scandal over its ties to pharmacy chain Philidor broke. Per the FT, “Valeant purchased an option to buy Philidor, a so-called specialty pharmacy, in December 2014, but kept the arrangement hidden from investors for the best part of a year, before fraud allegations from short sellers and a legal dispute forced it to disclose the relationship.” Where’s the Egypt tie-in? Valeant entered into a deal back in mid-July to acquire Amoun; the transaction was set to be executed “later today,” the company noted in its 3Q2015 earnings release issued on 19 October. There’s been no word since, but on an earnings call yesterday Valeant re-stated guidance and said it would experience short-term pain from severing ties to Philidor.

Journalist Hossam Bahgat has been released, the Egyptian Initiative for Personal Rights said, according to Al Masry Al Youm. It is unclear whether Bahgat will be formally charged with a crime.

The Court of Cassation upheld the not guilty verdict of former Housing Minister Ahmed Al Maghrabi and businessman Mounir Ghabbour in a retrial on charges they illegally acquired public land, striking an appeal filed by the prosecution. The verdict at retrial upheld by the nation’s highest appeals court had overturned jail terms for both men on charges that Al Maghrabi facilitated Ghabbour’s acquisition of 18 feddans at below market price, AMAY reports.

New cement licenses to be issued soon, Kabil says: The government will issue new cement licenses soon, Trade and Industry Minister Tarek Kabil said. Kabil expects domestic cement demand to reach 90.4 mn tonnes by 2022 and current output is capped at 60 mn tonnes. He added that the government is working to facilitate investment and is making land provision and permit issuance easier in order to improve competitiveness. The story is getting wide play in outlets including Al Mal and Al Masry Al Youm.

The transportation ministry is planning to issue 11 maritime transportation tenders worth over EGP 11 bn, said Assistant Transportation Minister Mahmoud Gamal El Din at a recent conference. These projects come as part of a wave of upcoming tenders in the transportation sector worth EGP 100 bn, including the development of piers for the second phase development of Damietta port; logistics facilities to warehouse vegetables and furniture for USD 25 mn, and a USD 10 mn marina at Port Tawfik. The ministry also plans to issue tenders for 10 railway projects, Al Mal reports.

The Electricity Ministry will resort to cutting power in cases of heavy rain to avoid cases of electrocution, Al Borsa says. Electricity distributors are now required to declare emergencies and halt the supply of electricity until water is withdrawn, in cases of flooding. The Ministry’s spokesperson is blaming people who steal electricity directly from electricity towers and says they leave live wires uncovered, and that that leads to the accidents during rainfall.

One of the better quotes in recent memory from a government official: Antiquities Minister Mamdouh el-Damaty, speaking to the AP on Tuesday regarding perpetually out-of-breath Republican presidential candidate Ben Carson’s theory that the pyramids were built to store grain: “Does he even deserve a response? He doesn’t.” Although, this response was pretty good too.

UAE-based car-service app Careem raises USD 60 mn in Series C funding with Abraaj as lead investor: The funding represents one of the largest investments to date in the region’s tech sector, and is poised to help launch the service throughout MENA and Pakistan, according to a release by Abraaj on Tuesday. Commenting on the investment, Abraaj’s Mustafa Abdel-Wadood said, “The transport industry is witnessing a positive disruptive revolution from the use of technology. The headroom for growth in the ride-share and taxi-app industry continues to be substantial and is proving out globally – and with our markets being no exception.


UPDATE on the crash of Metrojet Flight 9268

At dispatch time this morning, there were no official updates from the investigative committee nor the civil aviation authority. The domestic press is mainly filled with reports on international coverage of the crash.

“The investigation into the Metrojet Flight 9268 seems to point away from a technical malfunction with the plane’s safety systems,” said a spokesperson from Airbus, Al Mal reports. Airbus representatives are advising crash investigators.

Russian ban on flights to Egypt will last months -Kremlin: The Russian ban on all flights to Egypt will last months, rather than weeks, according to Sergei Ivanov, chief of staff to Russian President Vladimir Putin, according to the AP. Ivanov also said Egypt needs to tighten its airport security regime in Cairo and Hurghada, not just Sharm El-Sheikh.

The price of Russia’s travel ban to its own tourism industry: Leonid Bershidsky in Bloomberg View draws attention to the fact that the Russian flight ban on Egypt will hurt the Russian tourism industry as well, with Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev ordering their government to consider financial aid to tour operators who have already sold 140k winter package tours to Egypt. Russian state news agency TASS reported on Monday that Russian tour operators have already lost USD 10 mn due to the Egypt flight ban. Bershidsky also notes that it will be difficult for Russians to replace Egypt as a favored vacation spot: “The ability of many Russians to travel overseas once or twice a year was one of Putin’s major achievements … As Russia’s recession worsened this year, the decline continued. Russians, however, still went to Egypt … Egypt competes with Turkey for the top spot on the list of popular destinations [for Russians] and outranks it when the Mediterranean gets too cold.”

…And the cost to Sharm: Reuters quotes the chairman of the South Sinai Travel Agents Association as saying that the crash will halve tourism income for Sharm El Sheikh and South Sinai for this season.

Carolyn McCall, chief executive of EasyJet, the British carrier with thousands of passengers stuck in Sharm El Sheikh, sat down for an interview with BBC News on Tuesday. McCall insists that flights were cancelled last weekend after permission for takeoff was rescinded. Asked if the large number of Russian planes departing was delaying UK flights, McCall replied “I don’t know. With regard to safety, McCall said “Sharm is not the issue … the airport is the issue … I think everyone would agree with that,” adding that the security of airports around the world needs to be tightened. “This will be a global thing, not just an Egyptian thing or a North African thing.” (Read with embedded video, running time: 4:04)

Russians turn on Charlie Hebdo over ‘blasphemous’ Egypt crash cartoons: Russians have turned to social media in large numbers to condemn recent Charlie Hebdo cartoons mocking the dead passengers of Flight 9268. From Reuters: “The first drawing showed a passenger’s skull, with the caption: ‘The dangers of Russian low cost’ flights. The second showed the plane’s debris falling on an Islamist militant with the legend: ‘The Russian air force is intensifying its air strikes.’ VK, one of Russia’s largest social media networks, said on Sunday the magazine’s cartoons had been the most discussed topic by its more than 100 mn active users over the weekend.”

EGYPT IN THE NEWS

The AP puts a magnifying glass on Egypt’s press for the whole world to see: ‘In Egypt, angry talk of Western conspiracy over plane crash.’ Remember the Category 5 British tourist who screamed at and disrespected British Ambassador John Casson in Sharm airport, and whose exchange was captured in a video we highlighted in our Sunday issue? The AP notes: “Al-Ahram ran a photo of a woman arguing with British Ambassador John Casson at the Sharm el-Sheikh airport, with the caption, “We want to resume our trip and don’t want to leave,’ as if she were saying that.”

Conman Ibrahim Abdel Atty’s fake Hepatitis / AIDS / cancer / anything else you need it to cure device was spotted in use as a fake bomb detector by security guards at Sharm El Sheikh hotels, the Independent reported. The device was first sold as a fake bomb detector by British con artists who are now in prison in the UK. We first noted in Enterprise that the same device presented as an AIDS and hepatitis cure in Egypt had been sold as a fake bomb detector in Iraq and Pakistan nearly one year ago in our 15 January issue. Readers may have in the past spotted on their own the use of the fake bomb detectors throughout Sharm and other areas. After the publication of the Independent’s story, CNN followed up by sending their own journalists who confirmed the use of the devices at Sharm hotels. **For further background reading, see:The story of the fake bomb detectors,’ the BBC, October 2014.

Save Egypt’: Prominent Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi’s most recent op-ed — originally published in Arabic Al-Hayat on Saturday and translated here in Al Arabiya — notes: “I recently met Egyptian leaders who do not belong to the Brotherhood, and who supported the revolution that toppled former President Mohammad Morsi. They are all frustrated … We do not serve Egypt or its leadership with our silence. It needs a word of truth. It is time the Egyptian situation is seen as it is, not as we want it to be.”

In the latest development of the scientific study into the pyramids, the BBC reports that thermal cameras have detected “mystery heat spots” at the bottom of the Great Pyramid. Studying the buildings during sunrise and sunset, the researchers believe that these “thermal anomalies” could be as mundane as “internal air currents” or just “voids behind the surface” — but we (and the Department of Tourism) are still holding out for a pharaoh or two. (Read)

WORTH READING

Forbes profiles ‘space archaeologist’ Sarah Parcak, who works with satellite imagery to help discover previously lost sites, and has spent the past fifteen years living and working in Egypt alongside her husband, anthropologist Gregory Mumford. On Monday Parcak was named the 2016 TED Prize winner — a USD 1 mn award to pursue her project of discovering and protecting the world’s heritage sites from destruction and looting, with a special focus on the Middle East.

In May 2014, Parcak submitted testimony (pdf) to the Cultural Property Advisory Committee under the US Bureau of Educational and Cultural Affairs arguing in favor of the United States signing a bilateral MOU with the Egyptian government on restricting the illegal import of Egyptian antiquities into the United States: “The proposed MOU is vital if these steps [training Egyptians in ground surveying methods for looted sites] are to be harmonized and to realize their full effectiveness. Egypt appears poised to address these issues … I am certainly ready to share my database and satellite imagery of affected sites with the Egyptian minister when it is complete.” Despite outcry by ancient coin collectors, the US State Department reportedly agreed to the import restrictions last year.

Hawass dismissed Parcak’s work and reliance on satellite imagery in 2011 with regard to the discovery of new sites, telling the UAE’s The National: “To announce the discovery of 17 pyramids shows how people are not careful enough … You have to wait for the conclusion to come from excavation,” he said, speaking for the first time about the documentary to The National. Otherwise tombs or temples could be mistaken for pyramids, he added. “You have to be very careful in interpreting satellite imagery.”

IMAGE OF THE DAY

Satellite imagery of the pyramid of Amenemhet II from the aforementioned Forbes profile, photo attribution: Sarah Parcak. The black pockmarks are sites where looting has taken place.

DIPLOMACY

Sherif Ismail meets Greek economic delegation
Prime Minister Sherif Ismail met with a Greek economic delegation headed by Infrastructure and Transport Minister Christos Spirtzis, which is visiting Egypt to explore investment opportunities in the Suez Canal, renewable energy, and tourism. The delegation had previously met with the Electricity Minister on solar panel and smart meter manufacturing; the Transportation Minister to discuss establishing new trade routes between the two countries; and the Investment Minister on investment opportunities in the Suez Canal Axis. At a meeting with the Egyptian Businessmen’s Association, the Greek delegation discussed President El-Sisi’s upcoming state visit to Greece in December, and the business delegation which would be accompanying him, Al Mal reports. (Read in Arabic)

The MFA denounced on Tuesday UN Secretary-General Ban Ki Moon’s concerns about the questioning and detention of journalist Hossam Bahgat, saying the Secretary-General’s statement “jumped to conclusions and assumptions relating to the exercise of freedom of expression, which is guaranteed for all Egyptians by the constitution.” (Read in Arabic or Ahram Online’s summary)

ENERGY

Azerbaijan’s SOCAR interested in investing in Egypt
The state oil company of Azerbaijan, SOCAR, is interested in buying stakes in refineries in Egypt, company president Rovnag Abdullayev said. “We would like to widen our activities in Egypt, particularly to buy stakes in refineries there and participate in Egypt’s oil refining,” Abdullayev noted. The comments came a day after Abdullayev left Cairo after having met with Prime Minister Sherif Ismail and other officials. (Read)

XD EGEMAC to sign EGP 640 mn contract for four transformer stations
The Egyptian Electricity Transport Company is signing an EGP 640 mn contract with XD EGEMAC next week. The contract involves the building of four transformer stations in Aswan. XD EGEMAC had presented the winning bid for the project and says it will begin operations 45 days after the contract is signed, with delivery date in eight months. (Read in Arabic)

Siemens purchase land in Ain El Sokhna for wind turbine factory
Siemens has purchased 70 square meters of land in Ain El Sokhna to establish a wind turbine factory, reports Al Mal. The factory, which has a CAPEX of 100 mn EUR, will initially produce 300 wind turbines per annum, equivalent to approximately 340 MW. (Read In Arabic)

INFRASTRUCTURE

Ten Companies commissioned to construct Port of East of Port Said
The Suez Canal Axis Corridor’s executive committee has commissioned ten companies to construct 4.5 km of port berths in the Port of East Port Said. These companies include: Arab Contractors, Orascom Construction, Qasid Kheir, Petrojet, and Orascom Construction. The Arab Contractors will spend approximately EGP 457 mn on the development of their phase of project. Dar El Handasah will be in charge of the project’s design. (Read in Arabic)

BASIC MATERIALS + COMMODITIES

Government mismanagement of bread subsidy policy cost the state EGP 6 bn, expert says
Poor policy choices concerning wheat and bread subsidies have ended up costing the state around EGP 6 bn, an expert at the Agricultural Research Centre says. He points to three issues in particular: allowing wheat imports during the domestic wheat purchasing season, allowing handling and transporting imported and domestic wheat at the same time, and accepting sub-standard wheat. This resulted in having imported wheat being disguised and sold to the government as domestic, costing the state EGP 1,000 extra per tonne. (Read in Arabic)

MANUFACTURING

Water cut paralyses factories in Borg El Arab + West Alexandria
Alexandria’s industrial sector has suffered losses in the tens of mns following the Potable Water Company’s decision to cut supplies to West Alexandria and Borg El Arab. This decision has effectively paralyzed water intensive factories in the governorates, particularly those that work in the food industry. The decision to cut water was precipitated by a technical malfunction of a desalination plant in Kilometer 40. “Close to 2,000 factories have halted their operation since last Wednesday, as a result of the water cut,” said Farag Amer, chairman of the Faragello Group. Amer claims that his company has incurred losses of over EGP 50 mn since Wednesday. (Read in Arabic)

HEALTH + EDUCATION

Ismail approves order of Naglazyme vaccine
Prime Minister Sherif Ismail has approved the purchase of the Naglazyme vaccine, said Health Minister. The vaccine is meant to cure children who suffer from MPS, a genetic lysosomal storage disease. The total cost of the purchase is EGP 16.5 mn, the source adds. (Read in Arabic)

TOURISM

Too early to estimate cost of Sharm flight suspension, easyJet says
It is too early to say what the cost of the British government-ordered suspension of flights from Sharm El Sheikh will be, easyJet said. CEO Carolyn McCall told a news conference on Tuesday that the airline was still working out the cost and that it was “way too early to say.” The low-cost airline is in process of repatriating passengers from Egypt to the UK. (Read)

TELECOMS + ICT

Vodafone Egypt’s half-year revenues rise, subs at 39 mn
Vodafone Egypt’s revenues grew 8.2% year-on-year in 1H15 to EGP 7.2 bn, according to an earnings release by Vodafone Group. Vodafone Egypt’s EBITA grew to EGP 3 bn, up from EGP 2.9 bn during the same period last year. Its customer base in Egypt reached 39 mn subscribers, according to Al Mal. Vodafone Group’s total revenues reached GBP 20 bn, with the Egypt subsidiary contributing 2.9% to overall revenues.

TP-LINK to expand product range in Egypt
TP-LINK Technologies said it is planning to broaden its products range in the Egyptian IT market. “The plan to increase its products sold in the retail and traditional dealer channels, comes after the rapid acceptance of its SOHO and SMB networking products in that market,” the press release noted. The company’s country manager said TP-LINK decided to increase its product portfolio sold in both the retail and traditional reseller channels after seeing demand from the market surge. Sales of networking and wireless products are around 60% higher y-o-y in 3Q2015 he added. (Read)

AUTOMOTIVE + TRANSPORTATION

Spanish and French consortiums head-to-head in bid for Cairo Metro Line 3
The National Authority for Tunnels is weighing two competing bids to construct the Cairo Metro Line 3 from a consortium led by the French VINCI Construction Grands Projets, and another led by Spanish construction company OHL, mistakenly named OHI by Al Mal. The project will see the construction of 17.7 km of track and 15 metro stations. Preliminary agreements were signed with a French-Egyptian consortium led by Colas Rail for electronic installations and electro mechanical works, and with a Thales-Alstom consortium to develop the signaling and communication systems, Ahram Online reports.

BANKING + FINANCE

Al Ahli Bank of Kuwait finalises acquisition of Piraeus Egypt
Al Ahli Bank of Kuwait (ABK) has finalised the acquisition of the Piraeus’ Egyptian unit. The shares were officially transferred to ABK as of 10 November. Piraeus’ 39 branches will be rebranded under Al Ahli Bank of Kuwait-Egypt in 1H2016. (Read in Arabic)

SAIB, Banque du Caire follow NBE and Banque Misr, issue 12.5% CDs
Egypt’s Societe Arabe Internationale de Banque (SAIB) and Banque du Caire are issuing three-year certificates of deposit carrying an interest rate of 12.5%. The move follows NBE’s and Banque Misr’s issuances after having issued saving certificates at 12.5% interest, pulling the market up from the average interest of 10% paid by Egyptian banks.

LEGISLATION + POLICY

EFSA issues new regulations for realtors
The Egyptian Financial Supervisory Authority (EFSA) issued new regulations governing the activities of real estate agents. Beyond outlining standards and practices, the regulations require that realtors must be registered with the Brokers’ Registry and the Lawyers Syndicate, and must hold a Bachelor’s in Law or any equivalency. To obtain a license to operate, realtors must complete an EFSA mandated training course. The law was published in Tuesday’s issue of the Official Gazette. (Read in Arabic)

EGYPT POLITICS + ECONOMICS

Sherif Ismail meets with Supply and Education officials to draw up govt program
Prime Minister Sherif Ismail met with officials from the Supply and Education Ministries as part of a series of high-level meetings to devise a comprehensive government program by 22 November to present to the incoming parliament. Ismail had previously met with the Planning, Housing and Transportation Ministers, Al Mal reports. (Read in Arabic)

OTHER BUSINESS NEWS OF NOTE

Egypt to launch campaign promoting financial market: EGX head Mohamed Omran and Awni Abdel Aziz, head of the Securities Chamber of Commerce will meet next week to discuss launching a marketing campaign to promote Egypt’s financial markets, Al Mal reports. Funding for the campaign will come from the Investor Protection Fund and major financial services companies, said Abdel Aziz. It’s presumably a domestic awareness campaign, so look forward to more stories of brassed-off investors who were lured to sell a prized gamoussa to buy shares, only to lose their life savings. (Newbies, we kid you not; it’s a trope in Egypt’s financial media dating back to the IPO of Telecom Egypt.)

ICT Ministry to issue “unified smartcards” for subsidies and healthcare with PPP deals
The ICT Ministry plans to develop and issue “unified smartcards” pegged to a citizen’s national ID, which can be used to obtain subsidized products, healthcare and other government services, said ICT Minister Yasser Al Kadi. The Ministry also plans to build healthcare databases across Egypt’s hospitals, Al Masry Al Youm reports. Both projects will be public-private partnerships (PPP). (Read in Arabic)

ON YOUR WAY OUT

Two employees of Serbia’s embassy to Libya — communications officer Sladjana Stankovic and driver Jovica Stepic — were kidnapped in Libya’s coastal city of Sabratha on Sunday. The two were travelling as part of a convoy that included Serbia’s ambassador to Libya when the motorcade was attacked by kidnappers who hit the embassy car carrying the two employees. As the AFP reports: “When the driver got out to see what had happened, they literally dragged him into one of their cars.” The attackers also abducted the communications officer from the same care and fired on a Libyan member of the convoy, hitting him in the leg.

One of the South Park goth kids reveals to another that she has succumbed to being emo. (Watch, 24 seconds)

It’s November 11. “Age shall not weary them, nor the years condemn. | At the going down of the sun and in the morning | We will remember them.”

BY THE NUMBERS
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QUICK FACT: As of end 2014, around 42% of liquid milk consumed in Egypt is in packaged form whereas the rest is in loose form.


USD CBE auction (Tuesday, 10 November): 7.9301 (unchanged since Sunday, 18 October)
USD parallel market (Tuesday, 10 November): 8.60 (+0.10 since Sunday, 08 November)

EGX30 (Tuesday): 6824.74 (-4.4%)
Turnover: EGP 538.0 mn
EGX 30 year-to-date: -23.54%

THE MARKET ON TUESDAY: After losing 5.3% since the start of this gloomy week, the EGX30 dived deeper into the red territory by losing 4.4% yesterday. The bourse remains pressured by uncertainties regarding currency devaluation, especially after the Russian airliner crash in Sinai threatens to slash Egyptian tourism revenues, as well as possibilities over a local interest rate hike. Stocks headed south across the board, except for a few stocks that could be potential beneficiaries of the EGP devaluation, such as Alexandria Containers and Suez Cement. As is usually the case during panic times, defensives, namely Edita, stood firm against the selling bout and soared 4.5%. On the flip side, the stocks that bore the brunt of the market dive were Ezz Steel, SODIC, Madinet Nasr for Housing, Amer Group and Pioneers Holding. Saudi’s Tadawul tumbled 0.4% as the region is hit by a string of concerns over a prolonged oil supply glut, while Asian bourses came in mixed as they absorbed the overnight dive in US equities alongside weak data from China.

Foreigners: Net Short | EGP -32.5 mn
Regional: Net Long | EGP +38.9 mn
Local: Net Short | EGP -6.4 mn

Retail: 66.0% of total trades | 72.4% of buyers | 59.6% of sellers
Institutions: 34.0% of total trades | 27.6% of buyers | 40.4% of sellers

Foreign: 15.1% of total | 12.1% of buyers | 18.1% of sellers
Regional: 10.0% of total | 13.6% of buyers | 6.4% of sellers
Domestic: 74.9% of total | 74.3% of buyers | 75.5% of sellers


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PHAROS VIEW

Will Banks Be Next?

We are seeing signs of potential margin compression at commercial banks in 2016, following three years of stellar NIM expansion. Up to date, t-bill and t-bond primary market yields did not respond to the surge in 3Y deposit rates in what seems as a deliberate intervention by public sector banks to limit the pass-through to the government’s borrowing cost.

We remind readers that investment in treasuries accounted for roughly 40% of system assets as of end September 2015, versus less than 25% pre-Jan 2011. Yet, it is important to note that the glass ceiling imposed on treasury yields will limit the income statement or “direct-to-equity” losses if these sizable portfolios are marked to market. This will partially offset the impact of NIM contraction on equity.

Finally, we have repeatedly noted that banks have been among the top net beneficiaries from the macro dislocations that followed the Jan 2011 revolution. This was also an integral part of our call for policy rate cuts in early 2015, as we argued that banks should partially bear the brunt through NIM normalization. We are not yet sure if this is happening but tentative signs are emerging. If the MPC opts for a soft rate hike, then the era of 5%+ NIM is likely behind us and so is the era of 3x book share prices. Tap here to download this research note in PDF format.
***


WTI: USD 43.71 (-1.13%)
Brent: USD 47.44 (+0.53%)
Gold: USD 1,089.40 / troy ounce (+0.08%)

TASI: 6,986.89 (-0.40%)
ADX: 4,199.03 (-0.63%)
DFM: 3,300.19 (-2.37%)
KSE Weighted Index: 395.02 (-0.43%)
QE: 10,947.02 (-1.99%)
MSM: 5,893.91 (-0.10%)

 

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