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Tuesday, 11 July 2017

What we’re tracking on 11 July 2017

Inflation figures for June are out and they are quite encouraging. Monthly core inflation rates dropped to 0.8% in June from 1.99% in May, with inflation settling in at 30.57%. Don’t get too attached to seeing rates like these, considering the impact of the wave of price hikes we have seen recently (we have more coverage on that in the Speed Round).

Day 2 post interest rate hikes saw Egyptian stocks witnessing a bump of 1.1% and no major announcement that companies were suspending CAPEX. This comes as foreigners snapped up USD 30.5 mn worth of high-yielding debt in Monday’s auction. Average yields on Egypt’s three-year and seven-year bonds rose to 19.48% and 19.21%, respectively, from 18.38% and 18.35%, central bank data showed.

On a related note, Finance Minister Amr El Garhy denied statements attributed to ministry sources that the recent interest rate hikes by 200 bps would increase the budget deficit by EGP 30 bn. He added that monetary and fiscal policies were in sync. We had noted on Sunday that Vice Minister of Finance Mohamed Maait said that neither Thursday’s interest rate hike nor May’s interest rate hike had been factored into the budget.

Glory, hallelujah. Some progress on getting the laptop ban on flights to the US from Egypt removed? A delegation from the US is set to arrive this week to inspect Egypt’s airports to decide whether to lift the ban on laptops and other devices onboard flights to the US, Civil Aviation Minister Sherif Fathy tells Al Mal. As we noted yesterday, all other countries who have been slapped with the laptop ban have been given at least a tentative exemption. Royal Jordanian and Kuwait Airways announced exemptions on Sunday, joining Etihad Airways, Qatar Airways and Turkish Airline. Royal Air Maroc, Saudi Airlines and Emirates Airlines have announced an exemption is forthcoming. As we have been spending plenty on developing security at our airports, especially since the Metrojet crash of 2015, we expect (hope) that these inspections by the US delegation would go swimmingly.

…The UK is also sending a delegation to inspect airports this week, according to some infuriating comments by Ambassador John Casson on Saturday, who said that we still have some ways to go before UK resumes flights to Sharm.

The same could not be said for the resumption of flights from the Russians: Fathy had nothing to offer by way of progress on the resumption of flights with Russia. Talks are ongoing, he said at the opening of a new duty free store in Cairo Airport, but there was nothing new to report there, according to Al Mal.

We are hearing some very interesting news from the global oil and gas market that are worth a look this morning:

  • Qatari LNG exports remain stable amid ongoing tension, a top official at Shell tells Reuters.
  • After signing agreements with Iran, France’s Total appears to be the most ideal candidate to bid on Qatari gasfields (shared with Iran), sources in Doha said.
  • Indian energy company ONGC Videsh will bid in an upcoming auction to explore and develop gas fields off the coast of Lebanon, in the pool of gas in the Mediterranean shared with Egypt, Cyprus and Israel, Reuters reports.
  • Aramco plans to invest USD 300 bn over the next 10 years, CEO Amin Nasser said according to Bloomberg.

We hope your ACs are working, as Cairo will see temperatures today reaching a high of 39 degrees Celsius, according to Ahram Online. It will be more tolerable in Alexandria, with a high of 31 degrees Celsius. Looks like another weekend in Sahel.

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