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Monday, 26 September 2016

Will neo-populism come to EM?

Populism and isolationism are sweeping developed markets, prompting two BlackRock fund managers writing for the Financial Times to wonder how long it is before “neo-populism” becomes a “thing” in emerging markets. The piece stutters when it brings up possible examples in Turkey, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia and Russia — “advanced” EM — before abruptly making the argument that the wave will be “very difficult for it to become widespread because of one major factor: China,” which they say may “become a major force for cooperation and multilateralism at a time of divisiveness and isolationism in the west.” As written, the piece has no legs, but the first half raises a question worth mulling over coffee this morning.

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